Vistra Corp. (VST)

Utilities · Electric Utilities · US stock · S&P 500 component

$140.83 ▼ -15.31 (9.81%)

At close 22 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 12,452,295

Compare with DUK

Interactive chart Research report Forecast ranges Pro workspace SEC filings Historical data

Fair valueFair

$126 −10.7% to fair value

$63fair band $107–$152$189

Day's range

$139.10 – $154.27

52-week range

$132.66 – $203.66

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra is an integrated power company that generates electricity and sells it to residential, commercial and industrial customers, mainly in Texas and other competitive markets in the United States. Its fleet includes natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar and battery assets. Revenue comes from selling power at wholesale and retail, along with payments for capacity, so earnings are affected by power prices and fuel costs.

Vistra Corp. generated $19.6 billion of revenue in the last twelve months, with sales that grew 4.3% a year over the past three years. Net debt to EBITDA is 3.5 times. The operating margin is 18.2% and the return on invested capital is 11%. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 0.6%. Its X-Ray Score is 53 out of 100.

Price chart

Interactive chart Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $132.66 – $203.66Volume 12,452,295Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$47.8B

52-week range$132.66 – $203.66

Volume (last day)12,452,295

P/E (TTM)21.8

EBIT / EV yield5.3%

Free-cash-flow yield4.7%

Dividend yield0.6%

Revenue (TTM)$19.6B

Net income (TTM)$2.2B

Operating margin18.2%

Return on capital11.4%

Debt incl. leases$19.6B

Cash & securities$435M

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$126middle half of models $115 – $141

Fair −10.7% to fair value

Average of the 14 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.

Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so multiples applied to today's profit may overstate value; model uncertainty is set to High

Price $141

Undervalued < $107Fair $107 – $152Overvalued > $152

P/E multiple

$142

P/B multiple

$89

P/S multiple

$124

EV/EBITDA multiple

$152

EV/EBIT multiple

$155

EV/revenue multiple

$138

10-year DCF, EBITDA exit

$134

5-year DCF, EBITDA exit

$143

10-year DCF, revenue exit

$131

5-year DCF, revenue exit

$136

10-year DCF, growth exit

$113

5-year DCF, growth exit

$122

Dividend discount, stable · not used

$45

Dividend discount, multi-stage

$83

Earnings power value

$99

Growth the price implies

2.2%/yr

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Average business, fairly priced

The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better ✓ 57 The price is not above fair value $126 fair value Debt looks manageable 3.5× EBITDA Revenue has been growing 4.3% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags none raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Utilities peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data

Valuation Fair

59/100

Priced about in line with its sector.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield5.3%

Free-cash-flow yield4.7%

Fair value vs price0.9×

Growth Weak

48/100

Growing slower than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)4.3%

Growth consistency80%

Profitability Fair

60/100

Returns on capital are typical for its sector.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital11.4%

Operating margin18.2%

Financial health Fair

53/100

Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score4 / 9

Net debt / EBITDA3.5×

Interest cover3.1×

Dividends Weak

26/100

Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.

See the numbers →

Dividend yield0.6%

Dividends vs free cash flow14%

Dividend growth0.4%

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

+34.5%

Mar '25

+10.5%

Jun '25

-20.9%

Sep '25

+13.5%

Dec '25

+32.7%

Mar '26

+3.6%

Jun '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.4B, diluted EPS $0.76.

Compare with peers

EIX Edison International71 ES Eversource Energy65 EXC Exelon Corp62 DUK Duke Energy CORP58

Other Electric Utilities companies by X-Ray Score.

SWOT analysis: Vistra Corp.

Strengthsinside the company

Return on invested capital is 11.4%, against a median of 5.5% for industry peers.

Weaknessesinside the company

Net debt is 3.5x EBITDA, above the 3x level that lenders usually watch.
Altman Z-score of 0.8 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.

Opportunitiesvaluation and setting

No specific opportunity is visible in our valuation, sector or growth data.

Threatsvaluation and setting

Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Utilities as unfavourable.

Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.

Compare VST with peers and sector

Medians of 14 Electric Utilities peers and of 30 Utilities stocks in our universe. Largest peers (X-Ray Score): SO 45, DUK 58, CEG 49, AEP 58, ETR 43, EXC 62.

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
X-Ray Score (out of 100)	53	51	50
Valuation	59	49	49
Growth	48	58	53
Profitability	60	53	49
Financial health	53	54	51
Dividends	26	53	55

Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Utilities

VST ranks #14 of 31 in Utilities and #7 of 15 in Electric Utilities by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.

Company	X-Ray Score
#1 EIX Edison International	71
#2 ED Consolidated Edison Inc	70
#3 ES Eversource Energy	65
#4 AWK American Water Works Compa...	62
#5 EXC Exelon Corp	62
…
#14 VST Vistra Corp. (this stock)	53

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
P/E ratio	21.5x	21.9x	21.9x
PEG ratio	–	1.72	2.88
Price / book	8.7x	2.1x	2.1x
Price / sales	2.4x	3.0x	2.9x
EV / EBITDA	12.4x	14.5x	14.0x
Price / free cash flow	21.2x	108.7x	85.9x
Dividend yield	0.6%	3.3%	3.1%
Gap to our fair value	−10.7%	−2.9%	+0.1%

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
Price change, 1 month	+0.3%	+7.2%	+7.2%
Price change, 3 months	−15.4%	−3.7%	−4.3%
Price change, 6 months	−9.3%	+0.1%	−0.6%
Price change, 1 year	−23.8%	+0.0%	+1.2%

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
Market value	$47.8B	$36.6B	$29.6B
Revenue (last 12 months)	$19.6B	$14.8B	$13.3B
EBITDA (last 12 months)	$5.4B	$5.3B	$3.9B
Net income (last 12 months)	$2.2B	$1.9B	$1.5B
Free cash flow (last 12 months)	$2.3B	−$1.4B	−$1.6B

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
Revenue growth, last year	+3.0%	+9.6%	+9.6%
Revenue growth, 3 years a year	+4.3%	+3.0%	+3.3%
EPS growth, 3 years a year	–	+13.7%	+8.1%
Dividend growth	+0.4%	+6.6%	+6.8%

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
Gross margin	–	–	75.8%
EBITDA margin	27.6%	37.6%	38.4%
Operating margin	18.2%	23.1%	23.0%
Net margin	11.3%	14.5%	14.5%
Return on invested capital	11.4%	5.5%	5.5%
Return on equity	40.5%	10.6%	9.9%

Metric	VST	Peers	Sector
Net debt / EBITDA	3.5x	5.6x	5.9x
Interest cover	3.1x	2.6x	2.4x
Current ratio	1.0x	0.7x	0.8x
Piotroski F-score (0 to 9)	4	6	6

Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.

Factor ratings for VST

Each factor is rated by where VST stands among the 31 Utilities stocks in our universe.

Rating against the sector

Goodthe top third of these stocks

Averagethe middle third of these stocks

Badthe bottom third of these stocks

"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.

Against its own history

The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:

▲ Betterbetter than its usual level

▼ Worseworse than its usual level

≈ In linewithin its usual range

For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.

In total: 10 Good · 4 Average · 5 Bad of 19 Growth: 1 · 0 · 1 Profitability: 2 · 0 · 2 Financial strength: 3 · 0 · 1 Valuation: 2 · 2 · 1 Cash flow: 2 · 1 · 0 Efficiency: 0 · 1 · 0

Factor	VST	Rating	Sector median	Own 5-year median	Against own history
Growth
Revenue growth, 3 years a year	+4.3%	Good beats 72%	+3.4%	–	–
Revenue growth, last year	+3.0%	Bad beats 15%	+9.6%	+3.0%	≈ In line
Profitability
Operating margin	18.2%	Bad beats 22%	22.9%	10.7%	▲ Better
Net margin	11.3%	Bad beats 28%	14.4%	5.3%	▲ Better
Return on invested capital	11.4%	Good beats 95%	5.5%	–	–
Return on equity	40.5%	Good beats 98%	10.1%	18.5%	▲ Better
Financial strength
Net debt / EBITDA	3.5x	Good beats 92%	5.8x	4.6x	▲ Better
Interest cover	3.1x	Good beats 76%	2.5x	1.6x	▲ Better
Current ratio	0.97	Good beats 79%	0.78	1.08	≈ In line
Piotroski F-score	4 / 9	Bad beats 13%	6 / 9	–	–
Valuation
P/E ratio	21.5x	Average beats 53%	21.8x	18.3x	▼ Worse
Price / book	8.7x	Bad beats 2%	2.1x	2.7x	▼ Worse
Price / sales	2.4x	Average beats 65%	2.9x	1.0x	▼ Worse
EV / EBITDA	12.4x	Good beats 73%	14.0x	19.0x	▲ Better
Free cash flow yield	4.7%	Good beats 98%	-4.9%	2.4%	▲ Better
Cash flow
Free cash flow margin	11.5%	Good beats 72%	-9.1%	7.4%	▲ Better
Cash from operations / net income	2.31	Average beats 63%	2.20	3.65	▼ Worse
Accruals (lower is better)	−6.8%	Good beats 98%	−3.3%	–	–
Efficiency
Days sales outstanding	43 days	Average beats 54%	44 days	42 days	≈ In line

These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.

Fundamentals checklist

● 8 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashGood

Free-cash-flow yieldGood

Risk models

Altman Z''Average

Piotroski F-ScoreBad

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)Good

Growth consistencyAverage

Balance sheet

Current ratioGood

Net debt / EBITDAGood

Interest coverGood

Valuation

Fair value vs priceBad

EBIT / EV yieldGood

Profitability

Return on invested capitalGood

Operating marginBad

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 67/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$17.7B	$15.6B	$14.8B	$17.2B	$17.7B
Operating income	−$1.5B	−$1.2B	$2.7B	$4.1B	$1.9B
Net income	−$1.3B	−$1.2B	$1.5B	$2.7B	$944M
Operating cash flow	−$206M	$485M	$5.5B	$4.6B	$4.1B
Operating margin	-8.6%	-7.5%	18.0%	23.7%	10.7%
Free cash flow	−$1.2B	−$816M	$3.8B	$2.5B	$1.3B
Diluted EPS	$-2.69	$-3.26	$3.58	$7.00	$2.18

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Bearish

3 bullish · 2 neutral · 11 bearish

Weekly

Strongly bearish

1 bullish · 1 neutral · 10 bearish

Monthly

Bearish

2 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	153.7	Bearish
EMA 10	151.0	Bearish
SMA 20	150.0	Bearish
EMA 20	150.1	Bearish
SMA 50	145.2	Bearish
EMA 50	148.3	Bearish
SMA 100	149.6	Bearish
EMA 100	149.7	Bearish
SMA 200	153.9	Bearish
EMA 200	153.7	Bearish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	43.05	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	1.59	Bullish
Momentum (12)	-12.26	Bearish
Stochastic %K (14)	5.84	Bullish
Williams %R (14)	-94.16	Bullish
CCI (20)	-44.26	Neutral

Pivot points (classic, last session)

120.0

129.6

135.2

Pivot

144.7

150.4

159.9

165.5

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.

Dividends

Paid, last 12 months

0.91 USD

Yield on today's price

0.65%

Frequency

Quarterly

Next ex-dividend date

Not announced

Ex-dividend date	Amount per share
21 Sep 2026	0.2300
22 Jun 2026	0.2290
20 Mar 2026	0.2280
22 Dec 2025	0.2270
19 Sep 2025	0.2260
18 Jun 2025	0.2250
20 Mar 2025	0.2240
20 Dec 2024	0.2220
20 Sep 2024	0.2200
18 Jun 2024	0.2180
19 Mar 2024	0.2150
19 Dec 2023	0.2130

Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.

ETFs that hold VST

ETF	Share of the fund
VPU Vanguard Utilities	3.57%
XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR	3.54%
FUTY Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index	3.27%
IDU iShares U.S. Utilities	3.08%
GRNY Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap	2.36%
VFLO VictoryShares Free Cash Flow	1.67%
AIPO Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure	1.51%
IWP iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth	1.46%

The eight funds with the largest weight in VST among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.