Utilities · Electric Utilities · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$140.83
52-week range
$132.66 – $203.66
Market cap
$47.8B
P/E (trailing)
21.8×
EV / EBITDA
12.4×
Free-cash-flow yield
4.7%
Dividend yield
0.6%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$19.6B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
4.3%
Operating margin
18.2%
Return on invested capital
11.4%
Net debt / EBITDA
3.5×
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$125.76 middle half of models $115 – $141
Versus priceFair−11% to fair value
P/E multiple
$141.60
P/B multiple
$89.35
P/S multiple
$123.68
EV/EBITDA multiple
$152.19
EV/EBIT multiple
$155.40
EV/revenue multiple
$137.56
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$133.85
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$143.45
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$131.23
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$136.18
10-year DCF, growth exit
$113.39
5-year DCF, growth exit
$121.54
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$82.58
Earnings power value
$98.60
Model uncertainty
High
X-Ray Score
53/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 55% of sector peers
Valuation59
Growth48
Profitability60
Financial health53
Dividends26
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Vistra is an integrated power company that generates electricity and sells it to residential, commercial and industrial customers, mainly in Texas and other competitive markets in the United States. Its fleet includes natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar and battery assets. Revenue comes from selling power at wholesale and retail, along with payments for capacity, so earnings are affected by power prices and fuel costs.
Vistra Corp. generated $19.6 billion of revenue in the last twelve months, with sales that grew 4.3% a year over the past three years. Net debt to EBITDA is 3.5 times. The operating margin is 18.2% and the return on invested capital is 11%. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 0.6%.
StocksXray gives Vistra Corp. an X-Ray Score of 53 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 55% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is profitability (60) and its weakest is dividends (26).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $125.76 (range $115.42 to $140.59). At $140.83 the stock trades 12% above that value, so the label is "Fair" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Vistra Corp. (VST)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$21.05
$22.12
$37.76
$136.52
$160.63
$140.83
Market cap
$10.2B
$9.3B
$14.2B
$48.1B
$55.5B
$47.8B
P/E
–
–
10.5×
19.5×
73.7×
21.8×
EV / revenue
1.1×
1.4×
1.7×
3.7×
4.1×
3.4×
EV / EBITDA
82.2×
51.4×
6.0×
10.7×
18.9×
12.4×
Price / free cash flow
–
–
3.8×
19.4×
42.1×
21.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
−12.2%
−8.7%
26.7%
5.2%
2.4%
4.7%
Price / book
1.2×
1.9×
2.7×
8.6×
10.9×
8.7×
Dividend yield
–
3.27%
2.17%
0.64%
0.56%
0.65%
Fundamentals checklist ● 8 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−6.8%Good
Free-cash-flow yield4.7%Good
Risk models
Altman Z score0.8×Average
Piotroski F-Score4 of 9Bad
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)4.3%Good
Growth consistency80%Average
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.0×Good
Net debt / EBITDA3.5×Good
Interest cover3.1×Good
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.9×Bad
EBIT / EV yield5.3%Good
Profitability
Return on invested capital11.4%Good
Operating margin18.2%Bad
XStocksXray
Vistra Corp. (VST)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
17,700
15,631
14,779
17,224
17,738
19,596
Gross profit
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating income
-1,515
-1,177
2,661
4,081
1,906
3,563
Net income
-1,274
-1,227
1,493
2,659
944
2,219
Diluted EPS ($)
-2.69
-3.26
3.58
7.00
2.18
6.47
Free cash flow
-1,239
-816
3,777
2,485
1,318
2,255
Gross margin
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating margin
−8.6%
−7.5%
18.0%
23.7%
10.7%
18.2%
Net margin
−7.2%
−7.8%
10.1%
15.4%
5.3%
11.3%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
29,683
32,787
32,966
37,770
41,550
42,603
Cash
1,325
455
3,485
1,188
785
435
Total debt
10,731
12,621
14,402
16,298
18,843
19,595
Equity
8,291
4,902
5,307
5,570
5,097
5,482
Dividend per share ($)
–
0.72
0.82
0.87
0.90
0.91
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
