Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)
Materials · Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials · US stock · S&P 500 component
$248.92
▲ +9.92 (4.15%)
Fair valueFair
$219 −12.1% to fair value
$109fair band $186–$265$328
Day's range
$241.46 – $248.92
52-week range
$191.50 – $259.98
About Packaging Corp Of America
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging in the United States. It manufactures linerboard and medium at its mills and converts them into corrugated boxes and displays at its plants, which are sold to makers of food, consumer products and industrial goods. Revenue follows shipments and prices of boxes and containerboard, with costs affected by fiber, energy and freight.
The company reported revenue of $9.5 billion for the last twelve months. Across three years, revenue grew 2.0% a year. It posts an operating margin of 10.9%, with return on invested capital of 10%. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, is 1.9 times. The dividend yield is 2.2%. Overall, the X-Ray Score comes to 54 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $191.50 – $259.98Volume 1,470,563Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$22.2B
52-week range$191.50 – $259.98
Volume (last day)1,470,563
P/E (TTM)32.2
EBIT / EV yield4.1%
Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
Dividend yield2.2%
Revenue (TTM)$9.5B
Net income (TTM)$692M
Operating margin10.9%
Return on capital9.7%
Debt incl. leases$4.0B
Cash & securities$594M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$219middle half of models $202 – $245
Fair
−12.1% to fair value
Average of the 14 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $249
Undervalued < $186Fair $186 – $265Overvalued > $265
P/E multiple
$234
P/B multiple
$212
P/S multiple
$199
EV/EBITDA multiple
$231
EV/EBIT multiple
$189
EV/revenue multiple
$210
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$247
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$255
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$240
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$247
10-year DCF, growth exit
$159
5-year DCF, growth exit
$152
Dividend discount, stable
$266
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$537
Earnings power value
$223
Growth the price implies
18.9%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
42/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.1%
Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
Fair value vs price0.9×
Growth
Fair
58/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)2.0%
EPS growth (3y)-8.0%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Fair
60/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital9.7%
Operating margin10.9%
Gross profitability17.4%
Financial health
Fair
56/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score3 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.9×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
51/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.2%
Dividends vs free cash flow66%
Dividend growth2.3%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+8.2%
Mar '25
+4.6%
Jun '25
+6.0%
Sep '25
+10.1%
Dec '25
+10.6%
Mar '26
+14.7%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $2.5B, diluted EPS $2.15.
Compare with peers
AVY Avery Dennison Corp61 AMCR Amcor plc57 SW Smurfit Westrock plc56 IP International Paper Co38Other Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Packaging Corp Of America
Strengthsinside the company
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Earnings per share have declined 8.0% a year over three years.
- Passes only 3 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which shows weak or worsening financial trends.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 7.2% last year from 2.0% a year over three years.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 32.0x earnings, 60% above the 20.0x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare PKG with peers and sector
Medians of 4 Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials peers and of 22 Materials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): SW 56, AMCR 57, IP 38, AVY 61.
| Metric | PKG | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 54 | 57 | 51 |
| Valuation | 42 | 71 | 46 |
| Growth | 58 | 68 | 55 |
| Profitability | 60 | 44 | 49 |
| Financial health | 56 | 36 | 48 |
| Dividends | 51 | 58 | 56 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Materials
PKG ranks #11 of 23 in Materials and #4 of 5 in Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for PKG
Each factor is rated by where PKG stands among the 23 Materials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 4 Good · 16 Average · 3 Bad of 23
Growth: 0 · 3 · 0
Profitability: 0 · 4 · 1
Financial strength: 2 · 1 · 1
Valuation: 0 · 4 · 1
Cash flow: 2 · 2 · 0
Efficiency: 0 · 2 · 0
| Factor | PKG | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +2.0% | Average beats 59% | +0.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +7.2% | Average beats 63% | +5.3% | +7.4% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −8.0% | Average beats 34% | +0.5% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 20.1% | Bad beats 33% | 27.9% | 21.8% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 10.9% | Average beats 46% | 11.8% | 13.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 7.3% | Average beats 41% | 7.8% | 9.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 9.7% | Average beats 46% | 10.0% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 14.8% | Average beats 50% | 14.8% | 19.1% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.9x | Average beats 59% | 2.4x | 1.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 91% | 7.8x | – | – |
| Current ratio | 2.94 | Good beats 89% | 1.61 | 3.09 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | Bad beats 11% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 32.0x | Average beats 34% | 21.6x | 19.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 4.8x | Bad beats 24% | 3.1x | 3.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 2.3x | Average beats 46% | 2.1x | 1.9x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.1x | Average beats 54% | 14.2x | 10.2x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.4% | Average beats 50% | 3.4% | 3.9% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 7.8% | Average beats 52% | 7.7% | 7.9% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.35 | Good beats 76% | 1.50 | 1.48 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +2.8% | Average beats 41% | +11.3% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −8.5% | Good beats 89% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 6.0x | Average beats 64% | 5.3x | 6.0x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 55 days | Average beats 43% | 54 days | 50 days | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 10 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Average
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityAverage
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 57/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | $8.5B | $7.8B | $8.4B | $9.0B |
| Operating income | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Net income | $841M | $1.0B | $765M | $805M | $774M |
| Operating cash flow | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.3% |
| Free cash flow | $489M | $671M | $845M | $522M | $729M |
| Diluted EPS | $8.83 | $11.03 | $8.48 | $8.93 | $8.58 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 235.2 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 237.3 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 233.0 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 235.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 236.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 235.3 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 235.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 233.0 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 226.0 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 226.1 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 70.19 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 1.45 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 8.35 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 100.0 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | 0.00 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 236.4 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 236.5 | S2 239.0 | S1 243.9 | Pivot 246.4 | R1 251.4 | R2 253.9 | R3 258.9 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
5.50 USD
Yield on today's price
2.21%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 | |
| 1.2500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold PKG
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR | 2.82% |
| GRNY Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap | 2.66% |
| BKDV BNY Mellon Dynamic Value | 1.59% |
| GNR SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources | 1.22% |
| DVY iShares Select Dividend | 0.74% |
| TMSL T. Rowe Price Small-Mid Cap | 0.48% |
| FVD First Trust Value Line Dividend Index | 0.40% |
| VOE Vanguard Mid-Cap Value | 0.37% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in PKG among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
PKG SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.