CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US stock · S&P 500 component
$118.56
▲ +2.26 (1.94%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$142 +20.0% to fair value
$71fair band $121–$172$213
Day's range
$116.25 – $119.27
52-week range
$75.42 – $141.96
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries manufactures and sells nitrogen fertilizer products, including ammonia, urea and ammonium nitrate, along with other nitrogen products for industrial uses. Its plants in North America and Europe use natural gas as the main raw material. Revenue comes from selling to farmers, distributors and industrial customers, so results depend on crop demand, nitrogen prices and the cost of natural gas.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. generated $7.7 billion in revenue during the last twelve months. Over three years, revenue changed by -14.1% a year, a decline measured per year. Operating margin stands at 41.1%, showing profit left after running costs. Return on invested capital stands at 40%. Net debt is 0.2 times of EBITDA. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 1.8%. The X-Ray Score is 68 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $75.42 – $141.96Volume 1,667,806Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$18.2B
52-week range$75.42 – $141.96
Volume (last day)1,667,806
P/E (TTM)7.5
EBIT / EV yield14.4%
Free-cash-flow yield10.5%
Dividend yield1.8%
Revenue (TTM)$7.7B
Net income (TTM)$2.5B
Operating margin41.1%
Return on capital39.5%
Debt incl. leases$3.2B
Cash & securities$2.5B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$142middle half of models $109 – $165
Undervalued
+20.0% to fair value
Average of the 12 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $119
Undervalued < $121Fair $121 – $172Overvalued > $172
P/E multiple
$121
P/B multiple
$112
P/S multiple
$101
EV/EBITDA multiple
$149
EV/EBIT multiple
$168
EV/revenue multiple
$102
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$195
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$165
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$190
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$158
10-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$314
5-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$307
Dividend discount, stable
$93
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$154
Earnings power value · not used
$358
Growth the price implies
-7.5%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Strong business at an attractive price
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
91/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield14.4%
Free-cash-flow yield10.5%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Weak
37/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-14.1%
EPS growth (3y)-18.2%
Growth consistency70%
Profitability
Fair
69/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital39.5%
Operating margin41.1%
Gross profitability21.8%
Financial health
Strong
83/100
Balance sheet looks strong: debt is well covered.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score8 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.2×
Interest cover18.6×
Dividends
Weak
46/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield1.8%
Dividends vs free cash flow17%
Dividend growth2.1%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+13.1%
Mar '25
+20.2%
Jun '25
+21.1%
Sep '25
+22.8%
Dec '25
+19.4%
Mar '26
+17.6%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $2.2B, diluted EPS $4.73.
Compare with peers
MOS Mosaic Co38Other Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 39.5%, against a median of 9.9% for sector peers.
- Operating margin of 41.1% is well above the 11.3% median of sector peers, a sign of pricing power or lower costs.
- Free cash flow equals 10.5% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
- Net debt is only 0.2x EBITDA.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Revenue has fallen 14.1% a year over three years while sector peers grew 0.6%.
- Earnings per share have declined 18.2% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 19.3% last year from -14.1% a year over three years.
- Dividends use only 17% of free cash flow, which leaves room to raise them.
- Trades at 7.3x earnings, 73% below the 26.6x median of sector peers.
- The price is 20% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Earnings in Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare CF with peers and sector
Medians of 22 Materials peers and of 22 Materials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): LIN 43, NEM 81, FCX 55, SHW 54, ECL 50, APD 25.
| Metric | CF | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 68 | 51 | 51 |
| Valuation | 91 | 43 | 43 |
| Growth | 37 | 57 | 57 |
| Profitability | 69 | 49 | 49 |
| Financial health | 83 | 48 | 48 |
| Dividends | 46 | 56 | 56 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Materials
CF ranks #2 of 23 in Materials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for CF
Each factor is rated by where CF stands among the 23 Materials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 16 Good · 3 Average · 4 Bad of 23
Growth: 1 · 0 · 2
Profitability: 5 · 0 · 0
Financial strength: 4 · 0 · 0
Valuation: 3 · 2 · 0
Cash flow: 1 · 1 · 2
Efficiency: 2 · 0 · 0
| Factor | CF | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −14.1% | Bad beats 7% | +0.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +19.3% | Good beats 80% | +5.3% | +19.3% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −18.2% | Bad beats 28% | +0.5% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 42.5% | Good beats 88% | 27.9% | 38.4% | ▲ Better |
| Operating margin | 41.1% | Good beats 93% | 11.8% | 32.5% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 32.3% | Good beats 89% | 7.8% | 25.4% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 39.5% | Good beats 98% | 10.0% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 43.5% | Good beats 93% | 14.8% | 37.2% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.2x | Good beats 89% | 2.4x | 0.4x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 18.6x | Good beats 70% | 7.8x | 14.8x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 4.86 | Good beats 98% | 1.61 | 3.37 | ▲ Better |
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | Good beats 83% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 7.3x | Good beats 97% | 21.6x | 8.4x | ≈ In line |
| Price / book | 3.2x | Average beats 46% | 3.1x | 3.1x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 2.4x | Average beats 41% | 2.1x | 2.3x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.4x | Good beats 98% | 14.2x | 5.3x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 10.5% | Good beats 93% | 3.4% | 14.7% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 24.7% | Good beats 93% | 7.7% | 30.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.19 | Bad beats 13% | 1.50 | 1.53 | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −19.1% | Bad beats 9% | +11.3% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −3.2% | Average beats 34% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 10.7x | Good beats 92% | 5.3x | 11.4x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 34 days | Good beats 83% | 54 days | 25 days | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 11 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 3 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginGood
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 70/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | $11.2B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $7.1B |
| Operating income | $1.7B | $5.4B | $2.2B | $1.7B | $2.3B |
| Net income | $1.3B | $3.9B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.9B | $3.9B | $2.8B | $2.3B | $2.8B |
| Operating margin | 26.4% | 48.2% | 33.6% | 29.4% | 32.5% |
| Free cash flow | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Diluted EPS | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Neutral
7 bullish · 4 neutral · 5 bearish
Weekly
Neutral
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 117.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 117.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 116.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 118.4 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 123.3 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 120.4 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 118.8 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 119.2 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 114.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 113.3 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 48.63 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -1.33 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | 2.19 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 69.86 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -30.14 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 62.70 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 113.8 | S2 115.0 | S1 116.8 | Pivot 118.0 | R1 119.8 | R2 121.0 | R3 122.8 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
2.10 USD
Yield on today's price
1.77%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
16 Nov 2026
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| (upcoming) | 0.6000 |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 | |
| 0.5000 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold CF
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| GRNY Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap | 2.36% |
| XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR | 2.23% |
| CALF Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 | 1.79% |
| GUNR FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream... | 1.77% |
| GNR SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources | 0.97% |
| DON WisdomTree U.S. MidCap Dividend | 0.72% |
| COWZ Pacer US Cash Cows 100 | 0.53% |
| DFAT DFA Investment Dimensions Group Inc. | 0.47% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in CF among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
CF stock splits
CF has split its stock once since 2015. The latest was a 5-for-1 split on 18 Jun 2015.
Full CF stock split history →CF SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.