Materials · Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$248.92
52-week range
$191.50 – $259.98
Market cap
$22.2B
P/E (trailing)
32.2×
EV / EBITDA
14.1×
Free-cash-flow yield
3.4%
Dividend yield
2.2%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$9.5B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
2.0%
Operating margin
10.9%
Return on invested capital
9.7%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9×
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$218.85 middle half of models $202 – $245
Versus priceFair−12% to fair value
P/E multiple
$233.58
P/B multiple
$211.65
P/S multiple
$199.20
EV/EBITDA multiple
$231.01
EV/EBIT multiple
$188.76
EV/revenue multiple
$209.74
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$247.34
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$254.87
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$239.69
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$247.36
10-year DCF, growth exit
$159.49
5-year DCF, growth exit
$152.27
Dividend discount, stable
$265.61
Earnings power value
$223.36
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
54/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 52% of sector peers
Valuation42
Growth58
Profitability60
Financial health56
Dividends51
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging in the United States. It manufactures linerboard and medium at its mills and converts them into corrugated boxes and displays at its plants, which are sold to makers of food, consumer products and industrial goods. Revenue follows shipments and prices of boxes and containerboard, with costs affected by fiber, energy and freight.
The company reported revenue of $9.5 billion for the last twelve months. Across three years, revenue grew 2.0% a year. It posts an operating margin of 10.9%, with return on invested capital of 10%. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, is 1.9 times. The dividend yield is 2.2%.
StocksXray gives Packaging Corp Of America an X-Ray Score of 54 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 52% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is profitability (60) and its weakest is valuation (42).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $218.85 (range $201.84 to $245.43). At $248.92 the stock trades 14% above that value, so the label is "Fair" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$118.39
$115.29
$152.06
$215.47
$202.37
$248.92
Market cap
$11.2B
$10.7B
$13.6B
$19.3B
$18.1B
$22.2B
P/E
13.4×
10.5×
17.9×
24.1×
23.6×
32.2×
EV / revenue
1.7×
1.5×
2.0×
2.5×
2.4×
2.7×
EV / EBITDA
7.8×
6.8×
9.6×
12.9×
12.2×
14.1×
Price / free cash flow
22.9×
15.9×
16.1×
37.0×
24.9×
29.8×
Free-cash-flow yield
4.4%
6.3%
6.2%
2.7%
4.0%
3.4%
Price / book
3.1×
2.9×
3.4×
4.4×
3.9×
4.8×
Dividend yield
3.38%
4.12%
3.29%
2.32%
2.47%
2.21%
Fundamentals checklist ● 5 Good · ● 10 Average · ● 1 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−8.5%Good
Free-cash-flow yield3.4%Average
Risk models
Altman Z score3.9×Good
Piotroski F-Score3 of 9Bad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−8.0%Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)2.8%Average
Revenue growth (3y)2.0%Average
Growth consistency100%Good
Balance sheet
Current ratio2.9×Good
Net debt / EBITDA1.9×Average
Interest coverno interest costGood
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.9×Average
EBIT / EV yield4.1%Average
Profitability
Return on invested capital9.7%Average
Operating margin10.9%Average
Gross profitability17.4%Average
XStocksXray
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
7,730
8,478
7,802
8,383
8,989
9,535
Gross profit
1,873
2,091
1,699
1,783
1,890
1,917
Operating income
1,241
1,421
1,075
1,101
1,107
1,036
Net income
841
1,030
765
805
774
692
Diluted EPS ($)
8.83
11.03
8.48
8.93
8.58
7.74
Free cash flow
489
671
845
522
729
742
Gross margin
24.2%
24.7%
21.8%
21.3%
21.0%
20.1%
Operating margin
16.1%
16.8%
13.8%
13.1%
12.3%
10.9%
Net margin
10.9%
12.1%
9.8%
9.6%
8.6%
7.3%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
7,837
8,004
8,681
8,833
10,726
11,016
Cash
619
320
648
685
529
443
Total debt
2,472
2,474
2,872
2,474
3,967
3,969
Equity
3,607
3,667
3,997
4,404
4,598
4,662
Dividend per share ($)
4.00
4.75
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.25
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net
Latest quarters
Mar 2025
Jun 2025
Sep 2025
Dec 2025
Mar 2026
Jun 2026
Revenue ($M)
2,141
2,171
2,313
2,364
2,368
2,490
Growth vs a year earlier
+8.2%
+4.6%
+6.0%
+10.1%
+10.6%
+14.7%
Net income ($M)
204
242
227
102
171
192
Diluted EPS ($)
2.26
2.67
2.51
–
1.91
2.15
XStocksXray
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)
Peers in Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
