Nrg Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Utilities · Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders · US stock · S&P 500 component
$94.38
▼ -5.42 (5.43%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$121 +28.2% to fair value
$61fair band $103–$147$182
Day's range
$93.61 – $99.30
52-week range
$93.36 – $189.96
Red flags⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk
About Nrg Energy, Inc.
NRG Energy is an integrated power company that generates electricity and supplies it to homes and businesses. It runs a fleet of power plants fuelled mainly by natural gas and other sources, and its retail energy brands provide electricity, natural gas and home services to many households. Its customers also include commercial and industrial companies and grid operators who rely on its generation capacity.
Revenue comes from retail electricity and gas bills, power supplied to wholesale markets, and capacity payments. Over the last twelve months it was $33.1 billion, while revenue growth over the last three years was -0.9% a year, a small decline. The operating margin is 6.1%, and the business earns a profit of 6% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 6.3 times EBITDA. The company pays a dividend with a yield of 2.0%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 46 out of 100.
NRG news
All NRG news →Price chart
52-wk range $93.36 – $189.96Volume 3,875,371Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$20.0B
52-week range$93.36 – $189.96
Volume (last day)3,875,371
P/E (TTM)22.6
EBIT / EV yield4.7%
Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
Dividend yield2.0%
Revenue (TTM)$33.1B
Net income (TTM)$849M
Operating margin6.1%
Return on capital5.8%
Debt incl. leases$23.3B
Cash & securities$162M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$121middle half of models $99 – $144
Undervalued
+28.2% to fair value
Average of the 14 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $94
Undervalued < $103Fair $103 – $147Overvalued > $147
P/E multiple
$87
P/B multiple
$93
P/S multiple
$145
EV/EBITDA multiple
$83
EV/EBIT multiple
$52
EV/revenue multiple
$152
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$141
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$119
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$154
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$133
10-year DCF, growth exit
$152
5-year DCF, growth exit
$132
Dividend discount, stable
$116
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$237
Earnings power value
$134
Growth the price implies
11.8%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Utilities peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
80/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.7%
Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
Fair value vs price1.3×
Growth
Weak
30/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-0.9%
EPS growth (3y)-8.1%
Growth consistency80%
Profitability
Weak
37/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital5.8%
Operating margin6.1%
Financial health
Weak
32/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score5 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA6.3×
Interest cover2.0×
Dividends
Weak
41/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.0%
Dividends vs free cash flow114%
Dividend growth7.4%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+15.6%
Mar '25
+1.2%
Jun '25
+5.7%
Sep '25
+13.7%
Dec '25
+19.5%
Mar '26
+11.0%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $7.5B, diluted EPS $2.31.
Compare with peers
AES Aes Corp41Other Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Nrg Energy, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- No standout strength in the figures we track.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only 5.8% (median 5.5% for sector peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Operating margin of 6.1% is thin against 23.0% for sector peers.
- Revenue has fallen 0.9% a year over three years while sector peers grew 3.4%.
- Earnings per share have declined 8.1% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 9.2% last year from -0.9% a year over three years.
- The price is 28% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Utilities as unfavourable.
- The price trend is down on the daily and weekly signals.
- Our checks raised: Dividend may be at risk; Dividend may be at risk.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare NRG with peers and sector
Medians of 30 Utilities peers and of 30 Utilities stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): NEE 45, SO 45, DUK 58, CEG 49, AEP 58, D 53.
| Metric | NRG | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 46 | 51 | 51 |
| Valuation | 80 | 49 | 49 |
| Growth | 30 | 53 | 53 |
| Profitability | 37 | 50 | 50 |
| Financial health | 32 | 52 | 52 |
| Dividends | 41 | 55 | 55 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Utilities
NRG ranks #18 of 31 in Utilities by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for NRG
Each factor is rated by where NRG stands among the 31 Utilities stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 6 Good · 4 Average · 10 Bad of 20
Growth: 0 · 1 · 2
Profitability: 2 · 0 · 2
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 2
Valuation: 3 · 0 · 2
Cash flow: 0 · 1 · 2
Efficiency: 0 · 1 · 0
| Factor | NRG | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −0.9% | Bad beats 15% | +3.4% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +9.2% | Average beats 45% | +9.6% | +9.2% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −8.1% | Bad beats 2% | +8.1% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 6.1% | Bad beats 2% | 22.9% | 6.4% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 2.6% | Bad beats 8% | 14.4% | 3.9% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 5.8% | Good beats 79% | 5.5% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 17.5% | Good beats 89% | 10.1% | 45.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 6.3x | Average beats 35% | 5.8x | 2.8x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | 2.0x | Bad beats 18% | 2.5x | 3.7x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 0.97 | Good beats 76% | 0.78 | 1.25 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | Bad beats 32% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 23.6x | Bad beats 31% | 21.8x | 11.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 4.1x | Bad beats 5% | 2.1x | 4.1x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 0.6x | Good beats 98% | 2.9x | 0.4x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.7x | Good beats 76% | 14.0x | 7.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | 1.7% | Good beats 90% | -4.9% | 2.1% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 1.1% | Average beats 62% | -9.1% | 0.8% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.83 | Bad beats 24% | 2.20 | 1.17 | ▲ Better |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −1.8% | Bad beats 5% | −3.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 39 days | Average beats 62% | 44 days | 45 days | ▲ Better |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 7 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 43/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.0B | $31.5B | $28.8B | $28.1B | $30.7B |
| Operating income | $3.3B | $2.0B | $384M | $2.4B | $1.8B |
| Net income | $2.2B | $1.2B | −$202M | $1.1B | $864M |
| Operating cash flow | $493M | $360M | −$221M | $2.3B | $1.9B |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Free cash flow | $224M | −$7M | −$819M | $1.8B | $766M |
| Diluted EPS | $8.93 | $5.17 | $-1.12 | $4.99 | $4.01 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bearish
2 bullish · 2 neutral · 12 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bearish
1 bullish · 1 neutral · 10 bearish
Monthly
Bearish
2 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 102.0 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 100.2 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 100.9 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 101.9 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 107.5 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 108.1 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 120.2 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 117.9 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 136.3 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 128.4 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 37.53 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -2.37 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -8.90 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 4.58 | Bullish |
| Williams %R (14) | -95.42 | Bullish |
| CCI (20) | -97.57 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 86.55 | S2 90.08 | S1 92.23 | Pivot 95.76 | R1 97.91 | R2 101.4 | R3 103.6 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
1.86 USD
Yield on today's price
1.98%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.4750 | |
| 0.4750 | |
| 0.4750 | |
| 0.4400 | |
| 0.4400 | |
| 0.4400 | |
| 0.4400 | |
| 0.4080 | |
| 0.4080 | |
| 0.4080 | |
| 0.4080 | |
| 0.3780 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold NRG
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR | 2.17% |
| FUTY Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index | 1.78% |
| VPU Vanguard Utilities | 1.78% |
| IDU iShares U.S. Utilities | 1.69% |
| VFLO VictoryShares Free Cash Flow | 1.59% |
| SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta | 0.88% |
| IWP iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth | 0.81% |
| IFRA iShares U.S. Infrastructure | 0.80% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in NRG among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
NRG stock splits
NRG has split its stock once since 2007. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 1 Jun 2007.
Full NRG stock split history →NRG SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.