Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · US stock · S&P 500 component
$459.28
▼ -8.70 (1.86%)
Fair valueFair
$523 +13.8% to fair value
$261fair band $445–$634$784
Day's range
$448.38 – $473.06
52-week range
$161.93 – $493.98
About Marathon Petroleum Corp
Crude oil goes in and gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products come out at the refineries of Marathon Petroleum, which markets them to wholesale and retail customers. It operates a network of refineries across the United States and a midstream business that carries crude, refined products and natural gas liquids through pipelines, terminals and processing plants, largely held through the MPLX partnership. Customers include fuel distributors, branded stations, airlines, industrial users and petrochemical firms.
Revenue comes from refined product sales at prevailing market prices, alongside fees from the midstream operations. It was $153.6 billion over the last twelve months, but growth was -9.2% a year over the last three years, which means sales have contracted. The operating margin is 9.2%, and the business earns a profit of 26% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 1.4 times EBITDA. The dividend yield is 0.9%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 50 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $161.93 – $493.98Volume 2,596,212Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$133.2B
52-week range$161.93 – $493.98
Volume (last day)2,596,212
P/E (TTM)16.0
EBIT / EV yield8.6%
Free-cash-flow yield9.7%
Dividend yield0.9%
Revenue (TTM)$153.6B
Net income (TTM)$8.6B
Operating margin9.2%
Return on capital25.9%
Debt incl. leases$32.8B
Cash & securities$7.8B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$523middle half of models $441 – $666
Fair
+13.8% to fair value
Average of the 15 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so multiples applied to today's profit may overstate value; model uncertainty is set to High
Price $459
Undervalued < $445Fair $445 – $634Overvalued > $634
P/E multiple
$423
P/B multiple
$294
P/S multiple
$658
EV/EBITDA multiple
$482
EV/EBIT multiple
$460
EV/revenue multiple
$674
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$549
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$507
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$574
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$531
10-year DCF, growth exit
$709
5-year DCF, growth exit
$697
Dividend discount, stable
$185
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$304
Earnings power value
$798
Growth the price implies
14.8%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Energy peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
67/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield8.6%
Free-cash-flow yield9.7%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Weak
26/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-9.2%
EPS growth (3y)-22.2%
Growth consistency30%
Profitability
Fair
59/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital25.9%
Operating margin9.2%
Gross profitability20.3%
Financial health
Weak
48/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Interest cover8.7×
Dividends
Weak
41/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield0.9%
Dividends vs free cash flow9%
Dividend growth-3.8%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-3.6%
Mar '25
-10.9%
Jun '25
-0.8%
Sep '25
-1.7%
Dec '25
+8.5%
Mar '26
+53.8%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $52.0B, diluted EPS $17.73.
Compare with peers
PSX Phillips 6652 VLO Valero Energy Corp41Other Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Marathon Petroleum Corp
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 25.9%, against a median of 12.0% for sector peers.
- Free cash flow equals 9.7% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Operating margin of 9.2% is thin against 23.1% for sector peers.
- Revenue has fallen 9.2% a year over three years (median -5.2% for sector peers).
- Earnings per share have declined 22.2% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Energy as favourable.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- Earnings in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare MPC with peers and sector
Medians of 19 Energy peers and of 19 Energy stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): XOM 42, CVX 50, COP 58, VLO 41, PSX 52, WMB 38.
| Metric | MPC | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Valuation | 67 | 47 | 47 |
| Growth | 26 | 53 | 53 |
| Profitability | 59 | 49 | 49 |
| Financial health | 48 | 55 | 55 |
| Dividends | 41 | 55 | 55 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Energy
MPC ranks #10 of 20 in Energy by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for MPC
Each factor is rated by where MPC stands among the 20 Energy stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 8 Good · 7 Average · 8 Bad of 23
Growth: 0 · 2 · 1
Profitability: 2 · 0 · 3
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 2
Valuation: 3 · 1 · 1
Cash flow: 1 · 2 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 1 · 0
| Factor | MPC | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −9.2% | Bad beats 18% | −5.7% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | −4.4% | Average beats 34% | +3.9% | −4.4% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −22.2% | Average beats 55% | −22.6% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 12.5% | Bad beats 6% | 47.1% | 10.0% | ▲ Better |
| Operating margin | 9.2% | Bad beats 14% | 23.0% | 6.2% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 5.6% | Bad beats 13% | 13.5% | 6.5% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 25.9% | Good beats 82% | 12.3% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 44.8% | Good beats 93% | 15.2% | 37.2% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.4x | Bad beats 31% | 1.1x | 1.9x | ▲ Better |
| Interest cover | 8.7x | Bad beats 18% | 22.5x | 5.6x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 1.25 | Average beats 53% | 1.19 | 1.59 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 78% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 15.6x | Good beats 68% | 17.4x | 6.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 7.0x | Bad beats 13% | 2.6x | 2.5x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 0.9x | Good beats 92% | 2.3x | 0.3x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.4x | Average beats 50% | 9.4x | 6.8x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | 9.7% | Good beats 73% | 6.2% | 12.9% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 8.4% | Average beats 39% | 13.2% | 4.4% | ▲ Better |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.00 | Average beats 57% | 1.95 | 1.46 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −30.1% | Bad beats 12% | −17.7% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −9.1% | Good beats 73% | −6.6% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 13.5x | Good beats 85% | 4.2x | 13.7x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 37 days | Average beats 56% | 43 days | 29 days | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 5 Average · ● 6 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityAverage
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 48/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120.0B | $177.5B | $148.4B | $138.9B | $132.7B |
| Operating income | $4.3B | $21.5B | $14.5B | $6.8B | $8.3B |
| Net income | $9.7B | $14.5B | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $4.4B | $16.4B | $14.1B | $8.7B | $8.3B |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow | $2.9B | $13.9B | $12.2B | $6.1B | $4.8B |
| Diluted EPS | $15.24 | $28.12 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
10 bullish · 4 neutral · 2 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 470.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 464.3 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 444.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 449.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 407.2 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 409.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 345.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 361.9 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 281.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 306.1 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 60.97 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 21.16 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 6.23 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 52.40 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -47.60 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 39.00 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 422.7 | S2 435.6 | S1 447.4 | Pivot 460.2 | R1 472.1 | R2 484.9 | R3 496.8 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
4.00 USD
Yield on today's price
0.87%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1.0000 | |
| 1.0000 | |
| 1.0000 | |
| 1.0000 | |
| 0.9100 | |
| 0.9100 | |
| 0.9100 | |
| 0.9100 | |
| 0.8250 | |
| 0.8250 | |
| 0.8250 | |
| 0.8250 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold MPC
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| IEO iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & P... | 10.17% |
| CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners | 8.03% |
| XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR | 4.48% |
| IYE iShares U.S. Energy | 4.08% |
| FENY Fidelity MSCI Energy Index | 3.75% |
| ERX Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X | 3.49% |
| VDE Vanguard Energy | 3.27% |
| XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Produ... | 2.64% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in MPC among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
MPC stock splits
MPC has split its stock once since 2015. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 11 Jun 2015.
Full MPC stock split history →MPC SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.