Conocophillips (COP)
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · US stock · S&P 500 component
$145.63
▼ -0.04 (0.03%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$179 +23.1% to fair value
$90fair band $153–$217$269
Day's range
$143.33 – $147.55
52-week range
$85.57 – $147.55
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Conocophillips
ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production company that finds, develops and produces crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and bitumen. It operates in the United States, Canada and several other regions, and it does not run a large retail fuel business. Revenue is earned by selling these commodities at market-related prices, so earnings depend closely on energy prices and production volumes.
Revenue of $63.3 billion was recorded for the latest twelve months; sales fell 9.1% a year over the past three years. Conocophillips converts that into an operating margin of 23.1%. Return on invested capital comes to 13%. Net debt to EBITDA is 0.6 times. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 2.3%, and the X-Ray Score is 58 out of 100.
COP news
Crude oil in focus as stockpile draw, export data and warning reports collideCrude oil in focus as export and stockpile reports divergeCrude oil reports diverge as diplomacy hopes meet supply riskCrude oil slips as traders watch Middle East diplomacy
All COP news →Price chart
52-wk range $85.57 – $147.55Volume 5,575,204Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$176.8B
52-week range$85.57 – $147.55
Volume (last day)5,575,204
P/E (TTM)19.4
EBIT / EV yield7.6%
Free-cash-flow yield–
Dividend yield2.3%
Revenue (TTM)$63.3B
Net income (TTM)$9.3B
Operating margin23.1%
Return on capital12.6%
Debt incl. leases$23.3B
Cash & securities$7.7B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$179middle half of models $136 – $223
Undervalued
+23.1% to fair value
Average of the 15 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $146
Undervalued < $153Fair $153 – $217Overvalued > $217
P/E multiple
$138
P/B multiple
$136
P/S multiple
$135
EV/EBITDA multiple
$136
EV/EBIT multiple
$127
EV/revenue multiple
$138
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$234
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$192
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$233
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$192
10-year DCF, growth exit
$252
5-year DCF, growth exit
$213
Dividend discount, stable
$132
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$174
Earnings power value
$257
Growth the price implies
6.1%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business at a low price
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Energy peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
68/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield7.6%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Weak
40/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-9.1%
EPS growth (3y)-24.2%
Growth consistency50%
Profitability
Fair
66/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital12.6%
Operating margin23.1%
Gross profitability31.6%
Financial health
Fair
66/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Weak
36/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.3%
Dividend growth-11.3%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+19.3%
Mar '25
+2.8%
Jun '25
+15.3%
Sep '25
-5.9%
Dec '25
-4.6%
Mar '26
+36.8%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $19.2B, diluted EPS $3.23.
Compare with peers
EXE EXPAND ENERGY Corp67 EOG Eog Resources Inc66 EQT EQT Corp63 APA APA Corp62Other Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Conocophillips
Strengthsinside the company
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Revenue has fallen 9.1% a year over three years (median -4.2% for industry peers).
- Earnings per share have declined 24.2% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 7.7% last year from -9.1% a year over three years.
- The price is 23% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Energy as favourable.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 19.1x earnings, 53% above the 12.4x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- Earnings in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare COP with peers and sector
Medians of 8 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers and of 19 Energy stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): EOG 66, OXY 36, FANG 36, DVN 49, EQT 63, TPL 48.
| Metric | COP | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 58 | 56 | 50 |
| Valuation | 68 | 71 | 47 |
| Growth | 39 | 55 | 53 |
| Profitability | 66 | 52 | 49 |
| Financial health | 66 | 52 | 48 |
| Dividends | 36 | 44 | 55 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Energy
COP ranks #5 of 20 in Energy and #5 of 9 in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for COP
Each factor is rated by where COP stands among the 20 Energy stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 7 Good · 12 Average · 1 Bad of 20
Growth: 0 · 2 · 1
Profitability: 1 · 4 · 0
Financial strength: 2 · 2 · 0
Valuation: 0 · 4 · 0
Cash flow: 3 · 0 · 0
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | COP | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −9.1% | Bad beats 24% | −5.7% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +7.7% | Average beats 55% | +3.9% | +7.7% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −24.2% | Average beats 39% | −22.6% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 62.0% | Good beats 70% | 47.1% | 60.9% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 23.1% | Average beats 53% | 23.0% | 29.7% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 14.7% | Average beats 55% | 13.5% | 17.6% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 12.6% | Average beats 61% | 12.3% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 14.2% | Average beats 38% | 15.2% | 17.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.6x | Average beats 64% | 1.1x | 0.6x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 76% | 22.5x | 15.5x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 1.54 | Good beats 78% | 1.19 | 1.34 | ▲ Better |
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | Average beats 57% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 19.1x | Average beats 43% | 17.4x | 12.7x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 2.7x | Average beats 43% | 2.6x | 2.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 2.8x | Average beats 45% | 2.3x | 2.1x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.3x | Average beats 66% | 9.4x | 5.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 34.6% | Good beats 76% | 13.2% | 33.6% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.36 | Good beats 83% | 1.95 | 2.10 | ▲ Better |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −10.2% | Good beats 78% | −6.6% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 12.8x | Good beats 84% | 4.2x | 15.0x | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 8 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 63/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.8B | $78.5B | $56.1B | $54.7B | $58.9B |
| Operating income | $13.6B | $29.0B | $17.1B | $14.6B | $13.8B |
| Net income | $8.1B | $18.7B | $11.0B | $9.2B | $8.0B |
| Operating cash flow | $17.0B | $28.3B | $20.0B | $20.1B | $19.8B |
| Operating margin | 29.7% | 37.0% | 30.5% | 26.7% | 23.5% |
| Free cash flow | $11.7B | $18.2B | – | – | – |
| Diluted EPS | $6.07 | $14.57 | $9.06 | $7.81 | $6.35 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bullish
12 bullish · 1 neutral · 3 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 142.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 142.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 135.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 138.4 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 133.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 132.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 123.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 126.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 118.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 119.0 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 71.11 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 4.36 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 12.59 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 91.56 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -8.44 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 96.21 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 139.2 | S2 141.3 | S1 143.5 | Pivot 145.5 | R1 147.7 | R2 149.7 | R3 151.9 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
3.36 USD
Yield on today's price
2.31%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.8400 | |
| 0.8400 | |
| 0.8400 | |
| 0.8400 | |
| 0.7800 | |
| 0.7800 | |
| 0.7800 | |
| 0.7800 | |
| 0.5800 | |
| 0.5800 | |
| 0.5800 | |
| 0.5800 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold COP
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| IEO iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & P... | 17.26% |
| XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR | 6.57% |
| IYE iShares U.S. Energy | 6.44% |
| FENY Fidelity MSCI Energy Index | 5.87% |
| VDE Vanguard Energy | 5.76% |
| EAGL The 2023 ETF Series | 5.23% |
| FCG First Trust Natural Gas | 4.33% |
| ERX Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X | 4.31% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in COP among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
COP stock splits
COP has split its stock once since 2005. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 2 Jun 2005.
Full COP stock split history →COP SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.