EXPAND ENERGY Corp (EXE)
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · US stock · S&P 500 component
$92.96
▲ +0.13 (0.14%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$130 +39.8% to fair value
$65fair band $111–$158$195
Day's range
$90.53 – $94.05
52-week range
$83.25 – $126.62
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About EXPAND ENERGY Corp
Expand Energy is a natural gas producer, formed through the combination of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy. It drilled and operates wells in the Appalachian Basin and in Louisiana's Haynesville shale, and also produces some oil and natural gas liquids. Revenue comes from selling natural gas at market prices, so results depend on gas prices, drilling costs and pipeline access.
Revenue at EXPAND ENERGY Corp was $13.6 billion across the last twelve months. Across three years, sales expanded by 1.1% a year. Operating profit was 26.9% of revenue. It earned a return on invested capital of 13%. Debt after cash comes to 0.5 times EBITDA. Shareholders receive a dividend yielding 2.5%. On the site's X-Ray Score, it rates 67 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $83.25 – $126.62Volume 3,176,551Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$22.2B
52-week range$83.25 – $126.62
Volume (last day)3,176,551
P/E (TTM)8.0
EBIT / EV yield14.5%
Free-cash-flow yield12.1%
Dividend yield2.5%
Revenue (TTM)$13.6B
Net income (TTM)$2.8B
Operating margin26.9%
Return on capital12.8%
Debt incl. leases$3.7B
Cash & securities$663M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$130middle half of models $113 – $136
Undervalued
+39.8% to fair value
Average of the 8 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $93
Undervalued < $111Fair $111 – $158Overvalued > $158
P/E multiple
$97
P/B multiple
$104
P/S multiple
$121
EV/EBITDA multiple
$119
EV/EBIT multiple
$116
EV/revenue multiple
$119
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit · not used
$231
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$185
10-year DCF, revenue exit · not used
$227
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$179
10-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$350
5-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$317
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$414
Earnings power value · not used
$270
Growth the price implies
-6.8%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business at a low price
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Energy peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
93/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield14.5%
Free-cash-flow yield12.1%
Fair value vs price1.4×
Growth
Fair
58/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)1.1%
EPS growth (3y)-39.0%
Growth consistency60%
Profitability
Fair
56/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital12.8%
Operating margin26.9%
Financial health
Fair
67/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score8 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Interest cover16.8×
Dividends
Weak
49/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.5%
Dividends vs free cash flow20%
Dividend growth-14.2%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+103.1%
Mar '25
+630.7%
Jun '25
+357.7%
Sep '25
+63.5%
Dec '25
+100.2%
Mar '26
-19.8%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.0B, diluted EPS $2.19.
Compare with peers
EOG Eog Resources Inc66 EQT EQT Corp63 APA APA Corp62 COP Conocophillips58Other Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: EXPAND ENERGY Corp
Strengthsinside the company
- Free cash flow equals 12.1% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
- Net debt is only 0.5x EBITDA.
- Operating profit covers interest 17x, so debt costs are a small drag.
- Passes 8 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Earnings per share have declined 39.0% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 186.3% last year from 1.1% a year over three years.
- Trades at 8.0x earnings, 40% below the 13.4x median of industry peers.
- The price is 40% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Energy as favourable.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Earnings in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare EXE with peers and sector
Medians of 8 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers and of 19 Energy stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): COP 58, EOG 66, OXY 36, FANG 36, DVN 49, EQT 63.
| Metric | EXE | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 67 | 54 | 50 |
| Valuation | 93 | 66 | 47 |
| Growth | 58 | 51 | 52 |
| Profitability | 56 | 57 | 49 |
| Financial health | 67 | 52 | 48 |
| Dividends | 49 | 38 | 55 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Energy
EXE ranks #1 of 20 in Energy and #1 of 9 in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for EXE
Each factor is rated by where EXE stands among the 20 Energy stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 13 Good · 7 Average · 1 Bad of 21
Growth: 2 · 0 · 1
Profitability: 2 · 2 · 0
Financial strength: 2 · 2 · 0
Valuation: 5 · 0 · 0
Cash flow: 1 · 3 · 0
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | EXE | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +1.1% | Good beats 71% | −5.7% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +186.3% | Good beats 97% | +3.9% | −25.7% | ▲ Better |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −39.0% | Bad beats 8% | −22.6% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 26.9% | Good beats 69% | 23.0% | 26.3% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 20.5% | Good beats 76% | 13.5% | 21.4% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 12.8% | Average beats 66% | 12.3% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 14.3% | Average beats 43% | 15.2% | 22.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.5x | Good beats 75% | 1.1x | 0.7x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 16.8x | Average beats 39% | 22.5x | 17.1x | ≈ In line |
| Current ratio | 0.96 | Average beats 43% | 1.19 | 1.00 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | Good beats 93% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 8.0x | Good beats 98% | 17.4x | 4.5x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 1.1x | Good beats 93% | 2.6x | 1.2x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 1.6x | Good beats 71% | 2.3x | 1.7x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 3.8x | Good beats 92% | 9.4x | 4.3x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 12.1% | Good beats 96% | 6.2% | 6.0% | ▲ Better |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 19.7% | Average beats 61% | 13.2% | 10.7% | ▲ Better |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.03 | Average beats 63% | 1.95 | 0.98 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −7.2% | Average beats 58% | −17.7% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −10.3% | Good beats 83% | −6.6% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 29 days | Good beats 91% | 43 days | 46 days | ▲ Better |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 8 Good · ● 6 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverAverage
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 69/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | – | $11.7B | $8.7B | $4.2B | $12.1B |
| Operating income | – | $3.8B | $3.1B | −$803M | $2.5B |
| Net income | $6.3B | $4.9B | $2.4B | −$714M | $1.8B |
| Operating cash flow | – | $4.1B | $2.4B | $1.6B | $4.6B |
| Operating margin | – | 32.2% | 36.0% | -19.0% | 20.4% |
| Free cash flow | – | $2.3B | $551M | $8M | $1.8B |
| Diluted EPS | – | $33.36 | $16.92 | $-4.55 | $7.57 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
10 bullish · 2 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Neutral
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish
Monthly
Bearish
2 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 91.61 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 91.63 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 88.98 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 90.74 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 92.28 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 91.14 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 91.00 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 92.46 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 96.29 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 94.99 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 58.95 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.63 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 5.36 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 86.36 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -13.64 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 92.48 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 87.46 | S2 88.99 | S1 90.98 | Pivot 92.51 | R1 94.50 | R2 96.03 | R3 98.02 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
2.30 USD
Yield on today's price
2.47%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 1.4650 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.7150 | |
| 0.5750 | |
| 0.5750 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold EXE
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| FXN First Trust Energy AlphaDEX | 4.49% |
| IEO iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & P... | 4.10% |
| FCG First Trust Natural Gas | 3.96% |
| XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Produ... | 2.80% |
| VFLO VictoryShares Free Cash Flow | 2.21% |
| CALF Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 | 2.00% |
| GUSH Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Pr... | 1.71% |
| XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR | 1.31% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in EXE among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
EXE stock splits
EXE has split its stock 8 times since 1993. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 26 Mar 2008.
Full EXE stock split history →EXE SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.