Mosaic Co (MOS)
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US stock · S&P 500 component
$17.27
▼ -0.41 (2.32%)
Fair valueFair
$20 +17.4% to fair value
$10fair band $17–$25$30
Day's range
$16.99 – $17.54
52-week range
$16.99 – $32.25
About Mosaic Co
Crop nutrients, mainly phosphate and potash, are what Mosaic produces and distributes. It mines phosphate rock in Florida and potash in Canada, converts rock into finished phosphate fertilizers and feed ingredients, and runs a fertilizer distribution business in Brazil. Customers are farmers, agricultural retailers and distributors in many countries. The company reports its operations in phosphates, potash and Brazilian fertilizer segments.
Mosaic earns its revenue from fertilizer shipments, so its income moves with crop nutrient volumes and market conditions. Revenue was $12.2 billion over the last twelve months, having changed at -14.3% a year across the last three years, a steep decline. The operating margin is -1.4%, and the business earns -1% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 4.6 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 5.1%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 38 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $16.99 – $32.25Volume 13,288,213Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$5.5B
52-week range$16.99 – $32.25
Volume (last day)13,288,213
P/E (TTM)–
EBIT / EV yield-1.7%
Free-cash-flow yield-17.3%
Dividend yield5.1%
Revenue (TTM)$12.2B
Net income (TTM)−$638M
Operating margin-1.4%
Return on capital-0.8%
Debt incl. leases$4.8B
Cash & securities$294M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$20middle half of models $11 – $30
Fair
+17.4% to fair value
Average of the 6 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $17
Undervalued < $17Fair $17 – $25Overvalued > $25
P/B multiple
$31
P/S multiple
$31
EV/EBITDA multiple
$16
EV/revenue multiple
$26
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit · not used
$4
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$8
10-year DCF, revenue exit · not used
$3
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$9
Dividend discount, stable · not used
$35
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$45
Earnings power value · not used
$45
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
43/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield-1.7%
Free-cash-flow yield-17.3%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Weak
23/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-14.3%
EPS growth (3y)-44.7%
Growth consistency40%
Profitability
Weak
23/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital-0.8%
Operating margin-1.4%
Gross profitability5.5%
Financial health
Weak
48/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score8 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Dividends
Fair
68/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield5.1%
Dividend growth12.4%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-2.2%
Mar '25
+6.7%
Jun '25
+22.8%
Sep '25
+5.6%
Dec '25
+14.4%
Mar '26
-6.0%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $2.8B, diluted EPS $-0.86.
Compare with peers
CF CF Industries Holdings...68Other Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Mosaic Co
Strengthsinside the company
- Passes 8 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only -0.8% (median 10.3% for sector peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Operating margin of -1.4% is thin against 11.9% for sector peers.
- Revenue has fallen 14.3% a year over three years while sector peers grew 0.6%.
- Earnings per share have declined 44.7% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 8.4% last year from -14.3% a year over three years.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- Earnings in Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare MOS with peers and sector
Medians of 22 Materials peers and of 22 Materials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): LIN 43, NEM 81, FCX 55, SHW 54, ECL 50, APD 25.
| Metric | MOS | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 38 | 53 | 53 |
| Valuation | 43 | 45 | 45 |
| Growth | 23 | 57 | 57 |
| Profitability | 23 | 55 | 55 |
| Financial health | 48 | 50 | 50 |
| Dividends | 68 | 54 | 54 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Materials
MOS ranks #20 of 23 in Materials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for MOS
Each factor is rated by where MOS stands among the 23 Materials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 6 Good · 1 Average · 12 Bad of 19
Growth: 1 · 0 · 2
Profitability: 0 · 0 · 5
Financial strength: 1 · 0 · 2
Valuation: 3 · 0 · 1
Cash flow: 0 · 1 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 1
| Factor | MOS | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −14.3% | Bad beats 2% | +0.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +8.4% | Good beats 67% | +5.3% | +8.4% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −44.7% | Bad beats 3% | +0.5% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 11.0% | Bad beats 8% | 27.9% | 16.1% | ▼ Worse |
| Operating margin | -1.4% | Bad beats 15% | 11.8% | 9.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | -5.2% | Bad beats 11% | 7.8% | 8.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | -0.8% | Bad beats 15% | 10.0% | – | – |
| Return on equity | -5.6% | Bad beats 11% | 14.8% | 9.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 4.6x | Bad beats 11% | 2.4x | 1.5x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.34 | Bad beats 33% | 1.61 | 1.18 | ▲ Better |
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | Good beats 83% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| Price / book | 0.5x | Good beats 98% | 3.1x | 1.0x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 0.4x | Good beats 98% | 2.1x | 0.8x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.4x | Good beats 80% | 14.2x | 6.7x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | -17.3% | Bad beats 2% | 3.4% | 6.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | -7.7% | Bad beats 2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | ▼ Worse |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −4.4% | Average beats 57% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 3.0x | Bad beats 3% | 5.3x | 3.8x | ▼ Worse |
| Days sales outstanding | 26 days | Good beats 88% | 54 days | 34 days | ▲ Better |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 2 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 10 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDABad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 24/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $19.1B | $13.7B | $11.1B | $12.1B |
| Operating income | $2.5B | $4.8B | $1.3B | $622M | $822M |
| Net income | $1.6B | $3.6B | $1.2B | $175M | $541M |
| Operating cash flow | $2.2B | $3.9B | $2.4B | $1.3B | $825M |
| Operating margin | 20.0% | 25.0% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% |
| Free cash flow | $898M | $2.7B | $1.0B | $47M | −$535M |
| Diluted EPS | $4.27 | $10.06 | $3.50 | $0.55 | $1.70 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bearish
4 bullish · 0 neutral · 12 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 11 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 18.43 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 18.54 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 19.91 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 19.77 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 22.43 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 21.44 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 22.20 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 22.31 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 23.78 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 23.55 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 20.10 | Bullish |
| MACD (12, 26) | -1.50 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -17.53 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 6.21 | Bullish |
| Williams %R (14) | -93.79 | Bullish |
| CCI (20) | -120.5 | Bullish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 16.44 | S2 16.72 | S1 16.99 | Pivot 17.27 | R1 17.54 | R2 17.82 | R3 18.09 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
0.88 USD
Yield on today's price
5.10%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2200 | |
| 0.2100 | |
| 0.2100 | |
| 0.2100 | |
| 0.2100 | |
| 0.2000 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold MOS
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| RPV Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value | 1.56% |
| XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR | 0.90% |
| GUNR FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream... | 0.68% |
| DFSV DFA Investment Dimensions Group Inc. | 0.43% |
| DON WisdomTree U.S. MidCap Dividend | 0.41% |
| GNR SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources | 0.39% |
| RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight | 0.22% |
| DFAT DFA Investment Dimensions Group Inc. | 0.20% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in MOS among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
MOS stock splits
MOS has split its stock once since 1995. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 1 Dec 1995.
Full MOS stock split history →MOS SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
8-KSEC EDGAR
Current report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.