Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$17.27
52-week range
$16.99 – $32.25
Market cap
$5.5B
P/E (trailing)
–
EV / EBITDA
10.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
−17.3%
Dividend yield
5.1%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$12.2B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−14.3%
Operating margin
−1.4%
Return on invested capital
−0.8%
Net debt / EBITDA
4.6×
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$20.28 middle half of models $11 – $30
Versus priceFair+17% to fair value
P/B multiple
$31.04
P/S multiple
$31.29
EV/EBITDA multiple
$15.96
EV/revenue multiple
$26.03
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$8.04
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$9.31
Model uncertainty
High
X-Ray Score
38/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 13% of sector peers
Valuation43
Growth23
Profitability23
Financial health48
Dividends68
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Crop nutrients, mainly phosphate and potash, are what Mosaic produces and distributes. It mines phosphate rock in Florida and potash in Canada, converts rock into finished phosphate fertilizers and feed ingredients, and runs a fertilizer distribution business in Brazil. Customers are farmers, agricultural retailers and distributors in many countries. The company reports its operations in phosphates, potash and Brazilian fertilizer segments.
Mosaic earns its revenue from fertilizer shipments, so its income moves with crop nutrient volumes and market conditions. Revenue was $12.2 billion over the last twelve months, having changed at -14.3% a year across the last three years, a steep decline. The operating margin is -1.4%, and the business earns -1% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 4.6 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 5.1%.
StocksXray gives Mosaic Co an X-Ray Score of 38 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 13% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is dividends (68) and its weakest is profitability (23).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $20.28 (range $10.97 to $29.79). At $17.27 the stock trades 15% below that value, so the label is "Fair" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Mosaic Co (MOS)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$34.72
$39.17
$32.73
$23.19
$23.45
$17.27
Market cap
$13.2B
$13.9B
$10.9B
$7.4B
$7.5B
$5.5B
P/E
8.1×
3.9×
9.4×
42.2×
13.8×
–
EV / revenue
1.4×
0.9×
1.1×
1.0×
1.0×
0.8×
EV / EBITDA
5.2×
3.0×
6.3×
7.0×
6.6×
10.4×
Price / free cash flow
14.7×
5.2×
10.9×
156.9×
–
–
Free-cash-flow yield
6.8%
19.3%
9.2%
0.6%
−7.1%
−17.3%
Price / book
1.2×
1.2×
0.9×
0.6×
0.6×
0.5×
Dividend yield
1.30%
1.53%
2.60%
3.67%
3.75%
5.10%
Fundamentals checklist ● 2 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 10 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−4.4%Average
Free-cash-flow yield−17.3%Bad
Risk models
Altman Z score3.0×Average
Piotroski F-Score8 of 9Good
Growth
EPS growth (3y)−44.7%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−14.3%Bad
Growth consistency40%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.3×Bad
Net debt / EBITDA4.6×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.2×Good
EBIT / EV yield−1.7%Bad
Profitability
Return on invested capital−0.8%Bad
Operating margin−1.4%Bad
Gross profitability5.5%Bad
XStocksXray
Mosaic Co (MOS)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
12,357
19,125
13,696
11,123
12,052
12,248
Gross profit
3,200
5,756
2,211
1,512
1,902
1,345
Operating income
2,469
4,785
1,338
622
822
-170
Net income
1,631
3,583
1,165
175
541
-638
Diluted EPS ($)
4.27
10.06
3.50
0.55
1.70
-2.00
Free cash flow
898
2,689
1,005
47
-535
-947
Gross margin
25.9%
30.1%
16.1%
13.6%
15.8%
11.0%
Operating margin
20.0%
25.0%
9.8%
5.6%
6.8%
−1.4%
Net margin
13.2%
18.7%
8.5%
1.6%
4.5%
−5.2%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
22,036
23,386
23,033
22,924
24,480
24,641
Cash
770
735
349
273
277
294
Total debt
4,282
3,622
3,761
4,225
5,054
4,834
Equity
10,604
12,055
12,290
11,482
12,085
11,464
Dividend per share ($)
0.45
0.60
0.85
0.85
0.88
0.88
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
