Dow Inc. (DOW)
Materials · Commodity Chemicals · US stock · S&P 500 component
$31.81
▲ +1.43 (4.71%)
Fair valueFair
$35 +9.4% to fair value
$17fair band $30–$42$52
Day's range
$29.83 – $31.83
52-week range
$20.93 – $42.74
About Dow Inc.
Plastics, chemicals and specialty materials are made by Dow, a materials science company. Its range includes polyethylene for packaging, polyurethane and chemical intermediates, silicones, coatings and materials for infrastructure. Customers are manufacturers in packaging, consumer goods, construction, transportation and industrial markets. The business is organised into packaging and specialty plastics, industrial intermediates and infrastructure, and performance materials and coatings segments.
Dow earns its revenue by producing materials in large volumes and supplying them to manufacturers, so its income follows industrial demand and chemical prices. Revenue was $39.3 billion over the last twelve months, having changed at -11.1% a year across the last three years, a steep decline. The operating margin is -4.2%, and the business earns -4% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 11.8 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 4.4%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 24 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $20.93 – $42.74Volume 11,417,968Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$22.9B
52-week range$20.93 – $42.74
Volume (last day)11,417,968
P/E (TTM)–
EBIT / EV yield-4.3%
Free-cash-flow yield-1.0%
Dividend yield4.4%
Revenue (TTM)$39.3B
Net income (TTM)−$2.7B
Operating margin-4.2%
Return on capital-4.5%
Debt incl. leases$18.0B
Cash & securities$4.1B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$35middle half of models $16 – $48
Fair
+9.4% to fair value
Average of the 8 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $32
Undervalued < $30Fair $30 – $42Overvalued > $42
P/B multiple
$37
P/S multiple
$47
EV/EBITDA multiple
$17
EV/revenue multiple
$40
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit · not used
$11
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$15
10-year DCF, revenue exit · not used
$5
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$15
Dividend discount, stable
$51
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$56
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
35/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield-4.3%
Free-cash-flow yield-1.0%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Weak
5/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-11.1%
Growth consistency10%
Profitability
Weak
27/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital-4.5%
Operating margin-4.2%
Gross profitability4.2%
Financial health
Weak
18/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score3 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA11.8×
Interest cover-1.9×
Dividends
Weak
36/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield4.4%
Dividend growth-9.4%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-2.0%
Dec '24
-3.1%
Mar '25
-7.4%
Jun '25
-8.3%
Sep '25
-9.1%
Dec '25
-6.1%
Mar '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $9.8B, diluted EPS $-0.74.
SWOT analysis: Dow Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- No standout strength in the figures we track.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only -4.5% (median 10.3% for sector peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Operating margin of -4.2% is thin against 11.9% for sector peers.
- Revenue has fallen 11.1% a year over three years while sector peers grew 0.6%.
- Free cash flow is negative, so spending or debt has to be financed from outside.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- Earnings in Commodity Chemicals follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare DOW with peers and sector
Medians of 22 Materials peers and of 22 Materials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): LIN 43, NEM 81, FCX 55, SHW 54, ECL 50, APD 25.
| Metric | DOW | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 24 | 53 | 53 |
| Valuation | 35 | 46 | 46 |
| Growth | 5 | 57 | 57 |
| Profitability | 27 | 55 | 55 |
| Financial health | 17 | 50 | 50 |
| Dividends | 36 | 56 | 56 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Materials
DOW ranks #23 of 23 in Materials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for DOW
Each factor is rated by where DOW stands among the 23 Materials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 3 Good · 3 Average · 13 Bad of 19
Growth: 0 · 0 · 2
Profitability: 0 · 0 · 5
Financial strength: 0 · 1 · 3
Valuation: 2 · 0 · 2
Cash flow: 1 · 0 · 1
Efficiency: 0 · 2 · 0
| Factor | DOW | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −11.1% | Bad beats 11% | +0.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | −7.0% | Bad beats 2% | +5.3% | −3.7% | ▼ Worse |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 6.4% | Bad beats 3% | 27.9% | 10.9% | ▼ Worse |
| Operating margin | -4.2% | Bad beats 11% | 11.8% | 5.6% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | -6.8% | Bad beats 7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | -4.5% | Bad beats 7% | 10.0% | – | – |
| Return on equity | -17.5% | Bad beats 7% | 14.8% | 6.9% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 11.8x | Bad beats 7% | 2.4x | 2.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | -1.9x | Bad beats 11% | 7.8x | 3.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.85 | Average beats 59% | 1.61 | 1.77 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | Bad beats 11% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| Price / book | 1.5x | Good beats 80% | 3.1x | 1.8x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 0.6x | Good beats 93% | 2.1x | 0.7x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 32.5x | Bad beats 11% | 14.2x | 8.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | -1.0% | Bad beats 7% | 3.4% | 7.3% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | -0.6% | Bad beats 7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −7.9% | Good beats 84% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 5.4x | Average beats 53% | 5.3x | 6.0x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 48 days | Average beats 63% | 54 days | 40 days | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 1 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 11 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 22/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55.0B | $56.9B | $44.6B | $43.0B | $40.0B |
| Operating income | $8.9B | $6.8B | $1.4B | $2.4B | −$1.6B |
| Net income | $6.4B | $4.6B | $660M | $1.2B | −$2.4B |
| Operating cash flow | $7.0B | $7.5B | $5.2B | $2.9B | $1.0B |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 5.6% | -4.1% |
| Free cash flow | $5.5B | $5.7B | $2.8B | −$26M | −$1.4B |
| Diluted EPS | $8.38 | $6.28 | $0.82 | $1.57 | $-3.70 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
11 bullish · 0 neutral · 5 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
9 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Monthly
Bullish
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 29.68 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 29.98 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 28.82 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 29.44 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 29.53 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 29.49 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 29.91 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 30.14 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 31.87 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 30.34 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 70.14 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.46 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 12.96 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 99.64 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -0.36 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 173.8 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 28.49 | S2 29.16 | S1 30.49 | Pivot 31.16 | R1 32.48 | R2 33.15 | R3 34.48 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
1.40 USD
Yield on today's price
4.40%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
30 Nov 2026
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| (upcoming) | 0.3500 |
| 0.3500 | |
| 0.3500 | |
| 0.3500 | |
| 0.3500 | |
| 0.3500 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold DOW
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR | 2.64% |
| RPV Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value | 1.89% |
| SPYD SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend | 1.15% |
| FTLS First Trust Long/Short Equity | 0.47% |
| FNDX Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company... | 0.30% |
| FMDE Fidelity Enhanced Mid Cap | 0.28% |
| IYJ iShares U.S. Industrials | 0.26% |
| PRF Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 | 0.23% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in DOW among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
DOW SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.