Materials · Commodity Chemicals · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$31.81
52-week range
$20.93 – $42.74
Market cap
$22.9B
P/E (trailing)
–
EV / EBITDA
31.3×
Free-cash-flow yield
−1.0%
Dividend yield
4.4%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$39.3B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−11.1%
Operating margin
−4.2%
Return on invested capital
−4.5%
Net debt / EBITDA
11.8×
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$34.81 middle half of models $16 – $48
Versus priceFair+9% to fair value
P/B multiple
$37.29
P/S multiple
$46.60
EV/EBITDA multiple
$16.84
EV/revenue multiple
$40.19
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$15.25
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$15.46
Dividend discount, stable
$51.05
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$55.83
Model uncertainty
High
X-Ray Score
24/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 0% of sector peers
Valuation35
Growth5
Profitability27
Financial health17
Dividends36
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Plastics, chemicals and specialty materials are made by Dow, a materials science company. Its range includes polyethylene for packaging, polyurethane and chemical intermediates, silicones, coatings and materials for infrastructure. Customers are manufacturers in packaging, consumer goods, construction, transportation and industrial markets. The business is organised into packaging and specialty plastics, industrial intermediates and infrastructure, and performance materials and coatings segments.
Dow earns its revenue by producing materials in large volumes and supplying them to manufacturers, so its income follows industrial demand and chemical prices. Revenue was $39.3 billion over the last twelve months, having changed at -11.1% a year across the last three years, a steep decline. The operating margin is -4.2%, and the business earns -4% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 11.8 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 4.4%.
StocksXray gives Dow Inc. an X-Ray Score of 24 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 0% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is dividends (36) and its weakest is growth (5).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $34.81 (range $16.49 to $47.71). At $31.81 the stock trades 9% below that value, so the label is "Fair" with high model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Dow Inc. (DOW)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$43.67
$40.76
$46.77
$36.11
$22.61
$31.81
Market cap
$32.7B
$29.6B
$33.2B
$25.5B
$16.1B
$22.9B
P/E
5.2×
6.5×
57.0×
23.0×
–
–
EV / revenue
0.8×
0.7×
1.0×
0.9×
0.8×
1.0×
EV / EBITDA
3.8×
4.3×
11.4×
7.5×
26.8×
32.5×
Price / free cash flow
5.9×
5.2×
11.7×
–
–
–
Free-cash-flow yield
16.8%
19.1%
8.6%
−0.1%
−9.0%
−1.0%
Price / book
1.8×
1.4×
1.8×
1.5×
1.0×
1.5×
Dividend yield
6.41%
6.87%
5.99%
7.75%
9.29%
4.40%
Fundamentals checklist ● 1 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 11 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−7.9%Good
Free-cash-flow yield−1.0%Bad
Risk models
Altman Z score2.0×Bad
Piotroski F-Score3 of 9Bad
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)−11.1%Bad
Growth consistency10%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.8×Average
Net debt / EBITDA11.8×Bad
Interest cover-1.9×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price1.1×Average
EBIT / EV yield−4.3%Bad
Profitability
Return on invested capital−4.5%Bad
Operating margin−4.2%Bad
Gross profitability4.2%Bad
XStocksXray
Dow Inc. (DOW)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
54,968
56,902
44,622
42,964
39,968
39,331
Gross profit
10,777
8,564
4,880
4,606
2,533
2,502
Operating income
8,876
6,752
1,402
2,411
-1,646
-1,659
Net income
6,405
4,640
660
1,201
-2,444
-2,670
Diluted EPS ($)
8.38
6.28
0.82
1.57
-3.70
-3.74
Free cash flow
5,508
5,652
2,840
-26
-1,447
-232
Gross margin
19.6%
15.1%
10.9%
10.7%
6.3%
6.4%
Operating margin
16.1%
11.9%
3.1%
5.6%
−4.1%
−4.2%
Net margin
11.7%
8.2%
1.5%
2.8%
−6.1%
−6.8%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
62,990
60,603
57,967
57,312
58,538
59,780
Cash
2,988
3,886
2,987
2,189
3,816
4,110
Total debt
14,672
15,422
15,086
16,208
18,071
18,047
Equity
18,165
20,718
18,607
17,355
16,008
15,249
Dividend per share ($)
2.80
2.80
2.80
2.80
2.10
1.75
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Margins blue gross, teal operating, brown net
Latest quarters
Dec 2024
Mar 2025
Jun 2025
Sep 2025
Dec 2025
Mar 2026
Revenue ($M)
10,405
10,431
10,104
9,973
9,460
9,794
Growth vs a year earlier
−2.0%
−3.1%
−7.4%
−8.3%
−9.1%
−6.1%
Net income ($M)
32
-307
-835
62
-1,364
-533
Diluted EPS ($)
–
-0.44
-1.18
0.08
–
-0.74
XStocksXray
Dow Inc. (DOW)
Peers in Commodity Chemicals
Company
X-Ray
DOW · Dow Inc.
24
Market Compass outlook for Materials: Neutral (48/100). It blends regime history, macro sensitivity, momentum and valuation.
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
