Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Retail · US stock · S&P 500 component
$635.01
▲ +28.02 (4.62%)
Fair valueFair
$637 +0.3% to fair value
$318fair band $542–$772$955
Day's range
$611.82 – $637.26
52-week range
$443.60 – $714.97
About Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Ulta Beauty is a specialty retailer of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance and salon services in the United States. It operates stores and an online channel offering mass market and prestige brands as well as its own products. The company earns money by selling beauty products to consumers and by providing salon services, and it runs a loyalty program that encourages repeat purchases. Discretionary consumer spending affects sales.
The company reported twelve-month revenue of $13.0 billion, which expanded at 6.7% a year across the last three years. It earned an operating margin of 12.5%, and it generated a return on invested capital of 44%. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, is 0.1 times. The company does not pay a dividend. The site's X-Ray Score is 56 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $443.60 – $714.97Volume 816,250Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$27.3B
52-week range$443.60 – $714.97
Volume (last day)816,250
P/E (TTM)23.2
EBIT / EV yield5.9%
Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$13.0B
Net income (TTM)$1.2B
Operating margin12.5%
Return on capital44.2%
Debt incl. leases$340M
Cash & securities$213M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$637middle half of models $619 – $688
Fair
+0.3% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Low, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $635
Undervalued < $542Fair $542 – $772Overvalued > $772
P/E multiple
$619
P/B multiple
$623
P/S multiple
$661
EV/EBITDA multiple
$641
EV/EBIT multiple
$600
EV/revenue multiple
$650
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$688
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$691
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$690
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$698
10-year DCF, growth exit
$539
5-year DCF, growth exit
$511
Earnings power value
$670
Growth the price implies
12.4%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
47/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield5.9%
Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
Fair value vs price1.0×
Growth
Weak
50/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)6.7%
EPS growth (3y)2.2%
Growth consistency90%
Profitability
Fair
63/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital44.2%
Operating margin12.5%
Gross profitability73.1%
Financial health
Fair
66/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+4.5%
May '25
+9.3%
Aug '25
+12.9%
Nov '25
+11.8%
Jan '26
+11.1%
May '26
+8.9%
Aug '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.0B, diluted EPS $6.55.
SWOT analysis: Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 44.2%, against a median of 24.2% for sector peers.
- Net debt is only 0.1x EBITDA.
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- No clear weakness in the figures we track.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- No specific threat is flagged by our checks; general market and interest-rate risk still applies.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare ULTA with peers and sector
Medians of 46 Consumer Discretionary peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): AMZN 42, TSLA 28, HD 40, MCD 53, TJX 55, BKNG 70.
| Metric | ULTA | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 56 | 50 | 50 |
| Valuation | 47 | 49 | 49 |
| Growth | 50 | 53 | 53 |
| Profitability | 63 | 52 | 52 |
| Financial health | 66 | 49 | 49 |
| Dividends | – | 52 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
ULTA ranks #12 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for ULTA
Each factor is rated by where ULTA stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 6 Good · 15 Average · 1 Bad of 22
Growth: 1 · 2 · 0
Profitability: 2 · 3 · 0
Financial strength: 2 · 2 · 0
Valuation: 0 · 5 · 0
Cash flow: 0 · 3 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | ULTA | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +6.7% | Average beats 52% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +9.7% | Good beats 77% | +4.9% | +9.8% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +2.2% | Average beats 46% | +4.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 39.3% | Average beats 44% | 42.5% | 39.1% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 12.5% | Average beats 41% | 14.9% | 15.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 9.3% | Average beats 40% | 11.4% | 11.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 44.2% | Good beats 73% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 45.8% | Good beats 68% | 35.3% | 56.6% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.1x | Good beats 76% | 1.8x | – | – |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 76% | 25.3x | – | – |
| Current ratio | 1.35 | Average beats 66% | 1.10 | 1.61 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | Average beats 49% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 22.6x | Average beats 43% | 21.1x | 20.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 10.3x | Average beats 40% | 7.2x | 11.0x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 2.1x | Average beats 52% | 2.1x | 2.3x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.2x | Average beats 54% | 15.0x | – | – |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.2% | Average beats 42% | 4.3% | 4.5% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 8.9% | Average beats 36% | 10.8% | 9.3% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.30 | Average beats 38% | 1.37 | 1.14 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −3.0% | Bad beats 24% | +12.1% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −5.1% | Average beats 47% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 7 days | Good beats 72% | 14 days | 7 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 10 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Average
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 55/100.
Financials
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.6B | $10.2B | $11.2B | $11.3B | $12.4B |
| Operating income | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.5B |
| Net income | $986M | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| Free cash flow | $887M | $1.2B | $1.0B | $964M | $1.1B |
| Diluted EPS | $17.98 | $24.01 | $26.03 | $25.34 | $25.64 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 594.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 596.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 570.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 579.9 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 550.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 555.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 517.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 541.5 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 553.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 535.9 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 75.01 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 19.08 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 16.03 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 97.71 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -2.29 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 164.3 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 593.4 | S2 602.6 | S1 618.8 | Pivot 628.0 | R1 644.2 | R2 653.5 | R3 669.7 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold ULTA
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XRT SPDR S&P Retail | 1.29% |
| RPG Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth | 0.89% |
| QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor | 0.49% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 0.49% |
| ROUS Hartford Multifactor US Equity | 0.47% |
| AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value | 0.43% |
| VOT Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth | 0.43% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 0.40% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in ULTA among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
ULTA SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.