Smurfit Westrock plc (SW)
Materials · Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials · US stock · S&P 500 component
$42.43
▲ +0.97 (2.34%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$53 +25.2% to fair value
$27fair band $45–$64$80
Day's range
$40.88 – $42.52
52-week range
$32.73 – $52.65
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Smurfit Westrock plc
Smurfit Westrock produces paper-based packaging, including corrugated boxes, containerboard, folding cartons and specialty packaging, for customers in food, consumer goods, e-commerce and industry. It combines forestry and recycling operations with paper mills and box plants across the Americas and Europe. The company was formed through a merger of two packaging groups and earns money by selling packaging, with results influenced by paper prices and input costs.
Over the latest twelve months the company reported revenue of $31.3 billion, with growth of 32.2% a year across three years. It reports an operating margin of 4.7%, with return on invested capital of 3%. Leverage, measured as net debt to EBITDA, is 3.2 times. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 4.2%. Overall, it receives an X-Ray Score of 56 out of 100. These figures describe past results and the present financial position only.
Price chart
52-wk range $32.73 – $52.65Volume 5,684,433Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$22.3B
52-week range$32.73 – $52.65
Volume (last day)5,684,433
P/E (TTM)44.9
EBIT / EV yield4.1%
Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
Dividend yield4.2%
Revenue (TTM)$31.3B
Net income (TTM)$497M
Operating margin4.7%
Return on capital3.3%
Debt incl. leases$14.2B
Cash & securities$677M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$53middle half of models $45 – $67
Undervalued
+25.2% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $42
Undervalued < $45Fair $45 – $64Overvalued > $64
P/E multiple
$43
P/B multiple
$46
P/S multiple
$49
EV/EBITDA multiple
$51
EV/EBIT multiple
$42
EV/revenue multiple
$48
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$75
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$68
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$74
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$67
10-year DCF, growth exit
$47
5-year DCF, growth exit
$37
Dividend discount, stable · not used
$102
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$118
Earnings power value
$45
Growth the price implies
24.0%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Materials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
68/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.1%
Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
Fair value vs price1.3×
Growth
Strong
76/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)32.2%
EPS growth (3y)-30.5%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
42/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital3.3%
Operating margin4.7%
Gross profitability12.4%
Financial health
Weak
35/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Interest cover1.8×
Dividends
Fair
59/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield4.2%
Dividends vs free cash flow93%
Dividend growth37.1%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+161.3%
Mar '25
+167.4%
Jun '25
+4.3%
Sep '25
+0.5%
Dec '25
+0.7%
Mar '26
+1.1%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $8.0B, diluted EPS $0.17.
Compare with peers
AVY Avery Dennison Corp61 AMCR Amcor plc57 PKG Packaging Corp Of Amer...54 IP International Paper Co38Other Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Smurfit Westrock plc
Strengthsinside the company
- Revenue has grown 32.2% a year over three years (median 2.9% for industry peers).
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only 3.3% (median 8.0% for industry peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Operating margin of 4.7% is thin against 9.5% for industry peers.
- Earnings per share have declined 30.5% a year over three years.
- Operating profit covers interest only 1.8x.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 47.7% last year from 32.2% a year over three years.
- The price is 25% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 44.9x earnings, 124% above the 20.0x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare SW with peers and sector
Medians of 4 Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials peers and of 22 Materials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): PKG 54, AMCR 57, IP 38, AVY 61.
| Metric | SW | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 56 | 56 | 51 |
| Valuation | 68 | 58 | 43 |
| Growth | 76 | 61 | 55 |
| Profitability | 42 | 53 | 55 |
| Financial health | 35 | 40 | 50 |
| Dividends | 58 | 58 | 54 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Materials
SW ranks #8 of 23 in Materials and #3 of 5 in Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for SW
Each factor is rated by where SW stands among the 23 Materials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 10 Good · 2 Average · 11 Bad of 23
Growth: 2 · 0 · 1
Profitability: 0 · 0 · 5
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 2
Valuation: 3 · 1 · 1
Cash flow: 3 · 0 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 1
| Factor | SW | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +32.2% | Good beats 98% | +0.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +47.7% | Good beats 89% | +5.3% | +47.7% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −30.5% | Bad beats 16% | +0.5% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 17.9% | Bad beats 23% | 27.9% | 22.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Operating margin | 4.7% | Bad beats 24% | 11.8% | 8.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 1.6% | Bad beats 20% | 7.8% | 4.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 3.3% | Bad beats 28% | 10.0% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 2.8% | Bad beats 28% | 14.8% | 8.6% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 3.2x | Bad beats 24% | 2.4x | 3.0x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 1.8x | Bad beats 16% | 7.8x | 5.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.45 | Average beats 41% | 1.61 | 1.48 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 67% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 44.9x | Bad beats 13% | 21.6x | 21.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 1.2x | Good beats 85% | 3.1x | 1.5x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 0.7x | Good beats 89% | 2.1x | 0.8x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.5x | Good beats 89% | 14.2x | 7.8x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.5% | Average beats 60% | 3.4% | 5.5% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 3.2% | Bad beats 16% | 7.7% | 3.8% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 6.63 | Good beats 92% | 1.50 | 3.27 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +33.6% | Good beats 84% | +11.3% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −6.2% | Good beats 75% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 7.1x | Good beats 75% | 5.3x | 6.8x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 57 days | Bad beats 28% | 54 days | 55 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 6 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 7 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 52/100.
Financials
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.5B | $12.1B | $21.1B | $31.2B |
| Operating income | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.0B | $1.7B |
| Net income | $1.0B | $825M | $319M | $699M |
| Operating cash flow | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $3.4B |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% |
| Free cash flow | $503M | $630M | $17M | $1.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $3.96 | $3.17 | $0.82 | $1.33 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bearish
5 bullish · 2 neutral · 9 bearish
Weekly
Bearish
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish
Monthly
Bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 41.29 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 41.64 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 42.30 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 42.28 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 44.75 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 43.64 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 44.73 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 43.78 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 42.90 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 43.05 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 47.78 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -0.94 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | 0.09 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 84.37 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -15.63 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | -20.51 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 39.73 | S2 40.30 | S1 41.37 | Pivot 41.94 | R1 43.01 | R2 43.58 | R3 44.65 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
1.79 USD
Yield on today's price
4.21%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.4520 | |
| 0.4520 | |
| 0.4520 | |
| 0.4308 | |
| 0.4310 | |
| 0.4310 | |
| 0.4310 | |
| 0.3030 | |
| 0.3030 | |
| 1.2720 | |
| 0.3520 | |
| 1.1830 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold SW
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR | 3.25% |
| RPV Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value | 1.57% |
| GNR SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources | 1.39% |
| SPYD SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend | 1.32% |
| DVY iShares Select Dividend | 1.25% |
| CGDV Capital Group Dividend Value | 1.03% |
| FDL First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leade... | 0.70% |
| VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value | 0.52% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in SW among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
SW SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
10-KSEC EDGAR
Annual report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.