Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Super Micro Computer designs and builds server systems, storage and rack-scale computing hardware, sold to data centres, cloud providers, enterprises and artificial intelligence developers. It uses a modular design approach that lets customers configure systems around processors and accelerators from major chip suppliers. Revenue comes from hardware sales and related support, and results depend heavily on the availability of components and the pace of customer data centre spending.
Trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $39.1 billion, while revenue grew by 76.3% a year over the past three years. Return on invested capital is 30%, alongside an operating margin of 7.1%. The company does not currently pay a dividend. On the X-Ray Score, it is rated 58 out of 100.
52-wk range $19.48 – $54.53Volume 43,909,451Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$23.5B
52-week range$19.48 – $54.53
Volume (last day)43,909,451
P/E (TTM)10.4
EBIT / EV yield16.8%
Free-cash-flow yield-29.6%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$39.1B
Net income (TTM)$2.2B
Operating margin7.1%
Return on capital29.7%
Debt incl. leasesData missing
Cash & securities$7.5B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$58middle half of models $56 – $63
Undervalued+72.5% to fair value
Average of the 8 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $34
Undervalued < $49Fair $49 – $70Overvalued > $70
P/E multiple
$39
P/B multiple · not used
$74
P/S multiple · not used
$99
EV/EBITDA multiple
$53
EV/EBIT multiple · not used
$68
EV/revenue multiple · not used
$85
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$63
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$57
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$65
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$60
10-year DCF, growth exit
$67
5-year DCF, growth exit
$62
Earnings power value · not used
$68
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Information Technology peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
ValuationStrong
71/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield16.8%
Free-cash-flow yield-29.6%
Fair value vs price1.7×
GrowthStrong
82/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)76.3%
EPS growth (3y)41.9%
Growth consistency90%
ProfitabilityWeak
37/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital29.7%
Operating margin7.1%
Gross profitability14.1%
Financial healthWeak
42/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score1 / 9
Interest cover14.2×
DividendsNone
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+19.5%Mar '25
+7.5%Jun '25
-15.5%Sep '25
+123.4%Dec '25
+122.7%Mar '26
+93.2%Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $11.1B.
Other Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
Revenue has grown 76.3% a year over three years (median 6.4% for industry peers).
Earnings per share have compounded at 41.9% a year over three years.
Operating profit covers interest 14x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
Return on invested capital of 29.7% is well below the 57.7% median of industry peers.
Operating margin of 7.1% is thin against 25.0% for industry peers.
Free cash flow is negative, so spending or debt has to be financed from outside.
Passes only 1 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which shows weak or worsening financial trends.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
Trades at 10.5x earnings, 63% below the 28.8x median of industry peers.
The price is 73% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Information Technology as favourable.
Threatsvaluation and setting
Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare SMCI with peers and sector
Medians of 9 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals peers and of 74 Information Technology stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): AAPL53, DELL53, SNDK73, STX56, WDC52, HPE45.
Metric
SMCI
Peers
Sector
X-Ray Score (out of 100)
58
53
50
Valuation
71
38
50
Growth
82
59
54
Profitability
37
58
50
Financial health
42
61
50
Dividends
–
46
50
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Information Technology
SMCI ranks #22 of 75 in Information Technology and #2 of 10 in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for SMCI
Each factor is rated by where SMCI stands among the 75 Information Technology stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 9 Good · 4 Average · 8 Bad of 21Growth: 3 · 0 · 0Profitability: 1 · 1 · 3Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 1Valuation: 4 · 0 · 1Cash flow: 0 · 0 · 3Efficiency: 0 · 2 · 0
Factor
SMCI
Rating
Sector median
Own 5-year median
Against own history
Growth
Revenue growth, 3 years a year
+76.3%
Goodbeats 97%
+9.7%
–
–
Revenue growth, last year
+77.8%
Goodbeats 95%
+13.7%
+46.6%
▲ Better
EPS growth, 3 years a year
+41.9%
Goodbeats 92%
+5.9%
–
–
Profitability
Gross margin
10.8%
Badbeats 4%
57.8%
13.8%
▼ Worse
Operating margin
7.1%
Badbeats 14%
20.3%
7.1%
≈ In line
Net margin
5.7%
Badbeats 15%
17.8%
5.7%
≈ In line
Return on invested capital
29.7%
Goodbeats 69%
19.4%
–
–
Return on equity
15.4%
Averagebeats 36%
21.0%
20.0%
▼ Worse
Financial strength
Interest cover
14.2x
Averagebeats 42%
23.0x
50.0x
▼ Worse
Current ratio
3.87
Goodbeats 93%
1.57
3.81
≈ In line
Piotroski F-score
1 / 9
Badbeats 1%
6 / 9
–
–
Valuation
P/E ratio
10.5x
Goodbeats 99%
33.6x
21.8x
▲ Better
Price / book
1.6x
Goodbeats 99%
8.3x
4.9x
▲ Better
Price / sales
0.6x
Goodbeats 98%
6.9x
1.4x
▲ Better
EV / EBITDA
5.8x
Goodbeats 99%
24.7x
–
–
Free cash flow yield
-29.6%
Badbeats 1%
3.4%
-5.3%
▼ Worse
Cash flow
Free cash flow margin
-17.8%
Badbeats 2%
22.3%
-9.4%
▼ Worse
Cash from operations / net income
-3.05
Badbeats 1%
1.39
-1.55
▼ Worse
Accruals (lower is better)
+30.2%
Badbeats 2%
−4.4%
–
–
Efficiency
Inventory turnover
2.7x
Averagebeats 35%
3.9x
3.0x
≈ In line
Days sales outstanding
57 days
Averagebeats 60%
63 days
59 days
≈ In line
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 7 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 5 Bad
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Interest coverAverage
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 54/100.
Financials
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
FY26
Revenue
$5.2B
$7.1B
$15.0B
$22.0B
$39.1B
Operating income
$335M
$761M
$1.2B
$1.3B
$2.8B
Net income
$285M
$640M
$1.2B
$1.0B
$2.2B
Operating cash flow
−$441M
$664M
−$2.5B
$1.7B
−$6.8B
Operating margin
6.5%
10.7%
8.1%
5.7%
7.1%
Free cash flow
−$486M
$627M
−$2.6B
$1.5B
−$7.0B
Diluted EPS
$0.53
$1.14
$1.92
$1.68
$3.26
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bearish
3 bullish · 2 neutral · 11 bearish
Weekly
Bearish
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 8 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bearish
1 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
SMA 10
35.73
Bearish
EMA 10
35.63
Bearish
SMA 20
39.22
Bearish
EMA 20
37.38
Bearish
SMA 50
38.71
Bearish
EMA 50
37.40
Bearish
SMA 100
34.95
Bearish
EMA 100
35.86
Bearish
SMA 200
32.53
Bullish
EMA 200
35.30
Bearish
Oscillators (daily)
RSI (14)
39.52
Neutral
MACD (12, 26)
-1.59
Bearish
Momentum (12)
-22.41
Bearish
Stochastic %K (14)
18.86
Bullish
Williams %R (14)
-81.14
Bullish
CCI (20)
-96.18
Neutral
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3
30.85
S2
31.90
S1
32.81
Pivot
33.87
R1
34.78
R2
35.83
R3
36.74
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
The eight funds with the largest weight in SMCI among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
SMCI stock splits
SMCI has split its stock once since 2024. The latest was a 10-for-1 split on 1 Oct 2024.