Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · S&P 500 component
$349.63
▼ -8.44 (2.36%)
Fair valueOvervalued
$292 −18.4% to fair value
$146fair band $249–$354$438
Day's range
$349.50 – $355.57
52-week range
$253.54 – $364.50
Red flags⚠ Negative equity⚠ Negative equity⚠ Negative equity⚠ Negative equity⚠ Negative equity
About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Hilton is a global hospitality company that franchises, manages and licenses hotels under a family of brands, including Hilton, Conrad, Waldorf Astoria, DoubleTree, Hampton and Embassy Suites. Most properties are owned by outside investors, so Hilton supplies the brand, booking systems and the Hilton Honors loyalty programme while owners provide the buildings. Travellers book rooms for business and leisure, and hotel owners are its main direct customers.
Hilton collects fees from the hotels that use its brands, typically linked to room revenue, along with income from the few properties it owns or leases. Revenue is $12.5 billion over the last twelve months, rising 11.1% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 23.3%, and the business earns a profit of 34% on the capital invested in it. It has net debt of 4.0 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 0.2%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 39 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $253.54 – $364.50Volume 2,128,083Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$80.1B
52-week range$253.54 – $364.50
Volume (last day)2,128,083
P/E (TTM)51.6
EBIT / EV yield3.1%
Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
Dividend yield0.2%
Revenue (TTM)$12.5B
Net income (TTM)$1.6B
Operating margin23.3%
Return on capital34.3%
Debt incl. leases$13.3B
Cash & securities$1.0B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$292middle half of models $268 – $355
Overvalued
−18.4% to fair value
Average of the 12 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $350
Undervalued < $249Fair $249 – $354Overvalued > $354
P/E multiple
$347
P/S multiple
$301
EV/EBITDA multiple
$303
EV/EBIT multiple
$308
EV/revenue multiple
$309
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$355
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$373
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$355
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$372
10-year DCF, growth exit
$165
5-year DCF, growth exit
$150
Dividend discount, stable · not used
$29
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$50
Earnings power value
$167
Growth the price implies
22.5%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, priced high
Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
11/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield3.1%
Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
Fair value vs price0.8×
Growth
Fair
64/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)11.1%
EPS growth (3y)10.5%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Fair
59/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital34.3%
Operating margin23.3%
Financial health
Weak
27/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA4.0×
Interest cover4.4×
Dividends
Weak
32/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield0.2%
Dividends vs free cash flow7%
Dividend growth5.2%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+4.7%
Mar '25
+6.3%
Jun '25
+8.8%
Sep '25
+10.9%
Dec '25
+9.0%
Mar '26
+6.5%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.3B, diluted EPS $2.10.
Compare with peers
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc.70 EXPE Expedia Group, Inc.62 CCL Carnival Corp Ltd.56 ABNB Airbnb, Inc.52Other Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 34.3%, against a median of 11.6% for industry peers.
- Operating margin of 23.3% is well above the 16.0% median of industry peers, a sign of pricing power or lower costs.
- Revenue has grown 11.1% a year over three years (median 16.3% for industry peers).
Weaknessesinside the company
- Net debt is 4.0x EBITDA, above the 3x level that lenders usually watch.
- Altman Z-score of 0.0 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Trades at 51.8x earnings, 193% above the 17.7x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- The price is 18% above our fair value estimate, so there is little room for disappointment.
- Our checks raised: Negative equity; Negative equity.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare HLT with peers and sector
Medians of 7 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): BKNG 70, MAR 42, ABNB 52, RCL 43, CCL 56, EXPE 62.
| Metric | HLT | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 39 | 52 | 51 |
| Valuation | 11 | 62 | 49 |
| Growth | 64 | 77 | 50 |
| Profitability | 59 | 52 | 52 |
| Financial health | 27 | 43 | 50 |
| Dividends | 32 | 41 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
HLT ranks #40 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary and #8 of 8 in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for HLT
Each factor is rated by where HLT stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 5 Good · 5 Average · 9 Bad of 19
Growth: 1 · 2 · 0
Profitability: 3 · 0 · 0
Financial strength: 0 · 1 · 3
Valuation: 0 · 0 · 4
Cash flow: 1 · 2 · 1
Efficiency: 0 · 0 · 1
| Factor | HLT | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +11.1% | Good beats 72% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +7.7% | Average beats 66% | +4.9% | +16.7% | ▼ Worse |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +10.5% | Average beats 65% | +4.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 23.3% | Good beats 86% | 14.9% | 21.7% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 12.7% | Good beats 68% | 11.4% | 12.1% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 34.3% | Good beats 68% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 4.0x | Bad beats 21% | 1.8x | 3.9x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 4.4x | Bad beats 13% | 25.3x | 4.3x | ≈ In line |
| Current ratio | 0.65 | Bad beats 17% | 1.10 | 0.70 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | Average beats 49% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 51.8x | Bad beats 10% | 21.1x | 42.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 6.6x | Bad beats 7% | 2.1x | 5.5x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 30.4x | Bad beats 10% | 15.0x | 27.8x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.5% | Bad beats 15% | 4.3% | 3.1% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 16.3% | Good beats 71% | 10.8% | 17.2% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.33 | Average beats 44% | 1.37 | 1.34 | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +7.3% | Average beats 39% | +12.1% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −3.1% | Bad beats 24% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 52 days | Bad beats 4% | 14 days | 53 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 8 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceBad
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 41/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B | $8.8B | $10.2B | $11.2B | $12.0B |
| Operating income | $1.0B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.7B |
| Net income | $410M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Operating cash flow | $109M | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B |
| Operating margin | 17.4% | 23.9% | 21.7% | 21.2% | 22.4% |
| Free cash flow | $74M | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| Diluted EPS | $1.46 | $4.53 | $4.33 | $6.14 | $6.12 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bullish
12 bullish · 4 neutral · 0 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 344.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 346.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 332.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 336.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 322.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 327.4 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 326.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 323.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 319.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 314.8 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 64.52 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 10.52 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 9.08 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 68.06 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -31.94 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 97.43 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 341.5 | S2 345.5 | S1 347.6 | Pivot 351.6 | R1 353.6 | R2 357.6 | R3 359.7 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
0.60 USD
Yield on today's price
0.17%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 | |
| 0.1500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold HLT
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| QLTY GMO U.S. Quality | 2.08% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 1.87% |
| MFSV MFS Active Value | 1.75% |
| RPG Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth | 1.19% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 1.15% |
| VCR Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 1.14% |
| FQAL Fidelity Quality Factor | 0.93% |
| CGMM Capital Group U.S. Small and Mid Cap | 0.86% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in HLT among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
HLT SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.