Industrials · Rail Transportation · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$298.09
52-week range
$215.53 – $315.99
Market cap
$177.1B
P/E (trailing)
24.2×
EV / EBITDA
20.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
3.7%
Dividend yield
1.9%
Revenue (last 12 months)
$25.4B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−0.5%
Operating margin
40.0%
Return on invested capital
15.9%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.8×
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$252.69 middle half of models $236 – $282
Versus priceFair−15% to fair value
P/E multiple
$290.89
P/B multiple
$305.81
P/S multiple
$248.21
EV/EBITDA multiple
$306.40
EV/EBIT multiple
$304.99
EV/revenue multiple
$256.87
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$237.85
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$265.31
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$233.41
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$259.98
10-year DCF, growth exit
$163.70
5-year DCF, growth exit
$175.65
Dividend discount, stable
$197.66
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$272.38
Earnings power value
$271.19
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
45/ 100 · High confidence · ahead of 28% of sector peers
Valuation38
Growth24
Profitability65
Financial health50
Dividends43
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Union Pacific runs a freight railroad network across the western United States, linking ports, mines, farms, factories and cities, and connecting with railroads in Canada and Mexico. It moves bulk commodities such as grain, coal and chemicals, industrial goods such as lumber and metals, and premium traffic including containers and automobiles. Customers are shippers, from agricultural producers and chemical firms to retailers and automakers, who pay to move their goods by rail.
Revenue comes from freight charges per shipment, with fuel surcharges added. Sales were $25.4 billion over the last twelve months, with growth of -0.5% a year over the last three years. The operating margin is 40.0%, and the business earns a profit of 16% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 2.8 times EBITDA. The dividend yield is 1.9%.
StocksXray gives Union Pacific Corp an X-Ray Score of 45 out of 100 (high confidence), ahead of 28% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is profitability (65) and its weakest is growth (24).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $252.69 (range $235.63 to $281.64). At $298.09 the stock trades 18% above that value, so the label is "Fair" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Union Pacific Corp (UNP)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$226.16
$190.13
$231.20
$219.40
$227.87
$298.09
Market cap
$148.2B
$118.6B
$141.1B
$133.5B
$135.8B
$177.1B
P/E
22.7×
17.0×
22.1×
19.8×
19.0×
24.2×
EV / revenue
8.1×
6.1×
7.2×
6.8×
6.8×
8.1×
EV / EBITDA
19.0×
15.2×
19.0×
16.9×
16.9×
20.2×
Price / free cash flow
24.3×
20.7×
29.6×
22.7×
24.7×
27.2×
Free-cash-flow yield
4.1%
4.8%
3.4%
4.4%
4.0%
3.7%
Price / book
10.5×
9.8×
9.5×
7.9×
7.4×
8.6×
Dividend yield
1.90%
2.67%
2.25%
2.41%
2.39%
1.87%
Fundamentals checklist ● 3 Good · ● 5 Average · ● 7 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−4.1%Average
Free-cash-flow yield3.7%Average
Risk models
Altman Z score4.7×Good
Piotroski F-Score8 of 9Good
Growth
EPS growth (3y)2.2%Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)−1.4%Bad
Revenue growth (3y)−0.5%Bad
Growth consistency60%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio1.0×Bad
Net debt / EBITDA2.8×Bad
Interest cover7.9×Bad
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.8×Bad
EBIT / EV yield4.9%Average
Profitability
Return on invested capital15.9%Average
Operating margin40.0%Good
XStocksXray
Union Pacific Corp (UNP)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
21,804
24,875
24,119
24,250
24,510
25,410
Gross profit
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating income
9,338
9,917
9,082
9,713
9,846
10,171
Net income
6,523
6,998
6,379
6,747
7,138
7,330
Diluted EPS ($)
9.95
11.21
10.45
11.09
11.98
12.34
Free cash flow
6,096
5,742
4,773
5,894
5,499
6,504
Gross margin
–
–
–
–
–
–
Operating margin
42.8%
39.9%
37.7%
40.1%
40.2%
40.0%
Net margin
29.9%
28.1%
26.4%
27.8%
29.1%
28.8%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
63,525
65,449
67,132
67,715
69,698
71,211
Cash
960
973
1,055
1,016
1,266
1,614
Total debt
30,129
33,526
32,579
31,192
31,814
30,327
Equity
14,161
12,163
14,788
16,890
18,467
20,673
Dividend per share ($)
4.29
5.08
5.20
5.28
5.44
5.52
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
