Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
Industrials · Rail Transportation · US stock · S&P 500 component
$338.23
▲ +10.14 (3.09%)
Fair valueOvervalued
$268 −20.8% to fair value
$134fair band $228–$325$402
Day's range
$323.27 – $338.23
52-week range
$277.80 – $358.60
About Norfolk Southern Corp
A freight railroad across the eastern United States is the core of Norfolk Southern, with routes that serve major ports and industrial and population centres. It carries intermodal containers, coal, chemicals, automotive products, metals, construction materials and agricultural goods. Customers are shippers such as manufacturers, utilities, retailers and logistics providers. The company owns and maintains its own track and terminals, and it connects with other railroads to reach destinations beyond its network.
Revenue came to $12.5 billion over the last twelve months, earned from freight charges for moving customers' goods. Revenue has changed at -1.5% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 32.2% and the business earns 10% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 2.9 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 1.6%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 28 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $277.80 – $358.60Volume 1,431,409Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$76.1B
52-week range$277.80 – $358.60
Volume (last day)1,431,409
P/E (TTM)28.9
EBIT / EV yield4.4%
Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
Dividend yield1.6%
Revenue (TTM)$12.5B
Net income (TTM)$2.6B
Operating margin32.2%
Return on capital9.9%
Debt incl. leases$16.6B
Cash & securities$1.1B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$268middle half of models $244 – $305
Overvalued
−20.8% to fair value
Average of the 15 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $338
Undervalued < $228Fair $228 – $325Overvalued > $325
P/E multiple
$326
P/B multiple
$320
P/S multiple
$281
EV/EBITDA multiple
$323
EV/EBIT multiple
$311
EV/revenue multiple
$291
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$276
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$299
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$272
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$295
10-year DCF, growth exit
$176
5-year DCF, growth exit
$178
Dividend discount, stable
$177
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$216
Earnings power value
$276
Growth the price implies
17.2%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, priced high
Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Industrials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
18/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.4%
Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
Fair value vs price0.8×
Growth
Weak
20/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-1.5%
EPS growth (3y)-2.8%
Growth consistency60%
Profitability
Weak
39/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital9.9%
Operating margin32.2%
Financial health
Weak
30/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Interest cover5.1×
Dividends
Weak
40/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield1.6%
Dividends vs free cash flow74%
Dividend growth1.4%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-0.4%
Mar '25
+2.2%
Jun '25
+1.7%
Sep '25
-1.7%
Dec '25
+0.2%
Mar '26
+11.4%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.5B, diluted EPS $3.26.
Compare with peers
UNP Union Pacific Corp45 CSX Csx Corp28Other Rail Transportation companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Norfolk Southern Corp
Strengthsinside the company
- Operating margin of 32.2% is well above the 17.5% median of sector peers, a sign of pricing power or lower costs.
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Revenue has fallen 1.5% a year over three years while sector peers grew 5.6%.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- The price is 21% above our fair value estimate, so there is little room for disappointment.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare NSC with peers and sector
Medians of 80 Industrials peers and of 80 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): CAT 43, GE 49, RTX 51, GEV 50, UNP 45, DE 43.
| Metric | NSC | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 28 | 51 | 51 |
| Valuation | 18 | 48 | 48 |
| Growth | 20 | 51 | 51 |
| Profitability | 39 | 51 | 51 |
| Financial health | 30 | 49 | 49 |
| Dividends | 40 | 53 | 53 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Industrials
NSC ranks #78 of 81 in Industrials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for NSC
Each factor is rated by where NSC stands among the 81 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 4 Good · 6 Average · 11 Bad of 21
Growth: 0 · 0 · 3
Profitability: 2 · 0 · 2
Financial strength: 1 · 0 · 3
Valuation: 0 · 3 · 2
Cash flow: 0 · 3 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | NSC | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −1.5% | Bad beats 18% | +5.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +0.5% | Bad beats 21% | +4.5% | +0.5% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −2.8% | Bad beats 25% | +5.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 32.2% | Good beats 92% | 17.5% | 35.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 21.0% | Good beats 88% | 12.8% | 23.6% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 9.9% | Bad beats 22% | 14.9% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 16.2% | Bad beats 33% | 23.7% | 18.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.9x | Bad beats 14% | 1.8x | 2.7x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 5.1x | Bad beats 8% | 21.4x | 5.5x | ≈ In line |
| Current ratio | 0.83 | Bad beats 12% | 1.25 | 0.86 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 68% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 28.9x | Average beats 50% | 28.9x | 22.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 4.7x | Average beats 63% | 6.2x | 4.2x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 6.1x | Bad beats 19% | 3.5x | 4.6x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.8x | Average beats 59% | 18.5x | 14.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.1% | Bad beats 9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 13.0% | Average beats 44% | 13.8% | 17.7% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.42 | Average beats 54% | 1.39 | 1.52 | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −1.7% | Bad beats 13% | +14.5% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −2.4% | Average beats 39% | −3.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 34 days | Good beats 82% | 57 days | 32 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 2 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 11 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceBad
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 30/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $12.7B | $12.2B | $12.1B | $12.2B |
| Operating income | $4.4B | $4.8B | $2.9B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| Net income | $3.0B | $3.3B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $2.9B |
| Operating cash flow | $4.3B | $4.2B | $3.2B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| Operating margin | 39.9% | 37.7% | 23.5% | 33.6% | 35.8% |
| Free cash flow | $2.8B | $2.3B | $852M | $1.7B | $2.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $12.11 | $13.88 | $8.02 | $11.57 | $12.75 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 324.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 325.9 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 319.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 323.0 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 326.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 323.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 324.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 321.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 312.0 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 311.9 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 70.53 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 2.15 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 6.93 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 100.0 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | 0.00 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 174.8 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 313.3 | S2 318.3 | S1 328.3 | Pivot 333.2 | R1 343.2 | R2 348.2 | R3 358.2 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
5.40 USD
Yield on today's price
1.60%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 | |
| 1.3500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold NSC
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| IYT iShares Transportation Average | 4.79% |
| PAVE Global X U.S. Infrastructure Developme... | 2.90% |
| IFRA iShares U.S. Infrastructure | 2.48% |
| DIVO Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income | 2.09% |
| RSPN Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Industria... | 1.29% |
| XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 1.23% |
| FIDU Fidelity MSCI Industrials Index | 1.07% |
| VIS Vanguard Industrials | 0.97% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in NSC among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
NSC SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.