Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Retail · US stock · S&P 500 component
$34.73
▲ +2.04 (6.24%)
Fair valueFair
$39 +11.5% to fair value
$19fair band $33–$47$58
Day's range
$29.90 – $35.03
52-week range
$28.36 – $58.21
Red flags⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk
About Tractor Supply Co
Tractor Supply is a retailer built around the rural lifestyle. Its stores stock pet food and supplies, animal feed and farm and ranch equipment, along with tools, fencing, work clothing, and seasonal and home products. Customers are mainly homeowners with land, hobby farmers, ranchers and pet owners, and they shop in its stores, online and through delivery services. The company also owns the Petsense pet-supply store brand.
Revenue comes from merchandise purchased by customers in its stores and online. Sales reached $15.8 billion over the last twelve months, rising 3.0% a year over the last three years. The operating margin is 8.5%, and the business earns a profit of 23% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 1.0 times EBITDA. It pays a dividend with a yield of 2.7%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 48 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $28.36 – $58.21Volume 32,431,722Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$18.2B
52-week range$28.36 – $58.21
Volume (last day)32,431,722
P/E (TTM)9.8
EBIT / EV yield6.7%
Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
Dividend yield2.7%
Revenue (TTM)$15.8B
Net income (TTM)$1.9B
Operating margin8.5%
Return on capital23.4%
Debt incl. leases$2.2B
Cash & securities$232M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$39middle half of models $33 – $43
Fair
+11.5% to fair value
Average of the 15 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $35
Undervalued < $33Fair $33 – $47Overvalued > $47
P/E multiple
$43
P/B multiple
$52
P/S multiple
$52
EV/EBITDA multiple
$43
EV/EBIT multiple
$43
EV/revenue multiple
$47
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$32
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$36
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$33
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$37
10-year DCF, growth exit
$24
5-year DCF, growth exit
$26
Dividend discount, stable
$28
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$42
Earnings power value
$43
Growth the price implies
10.8%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
48/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield6.7%
Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Weak
46/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)3.0%
EPS growth (3y)2.0%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
42/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital23.4%
Operating margin8.5%
Gross profitability47.2%
Financial health
Fair
57/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Interest cover19.8×
Dividends
Weak
50/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.7%
Dividends vs free cash flow162%
Dividend growth6.0%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+2.1%
Mar '25
+4.5%
Jun '25
+7.2%
Sep '25
+3.3%
Dec '25
+3.6%
Mar '26
+2.3%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.5B, diluted EPS $0.69.
SWOT analysis: Tractor Supply Co
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 23.4%, against a median of 24.9% for sector peers.
- Operating profit covers interest 20x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Operating margin of 8.5% is thin against 15.0% for sector peers.
- Dividends (2.7% yield) are larger than free cash flow (payout 162% of it).
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Trades at 9.7x earnings, 54% below the 21.1x median of sector peers.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Our checks raised: Dividend may be at risk; Dividend may be at risk.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare TSCO with peers and sector
Medians of 46 Consumer Discretionary peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): AMZN 42, TSLA 28, HD 40, MCD 53, TJX 55, BKNG 70.
| Metric | TSCO | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 48 | 51 | 51 |
| Valuation | 48 | 49 | 49 |
| Growth | 46 | 53 | 53 |
| Profitability | 42 | 52 | 52 |
| Financial health | 57 | 49 | 49 |
| Dividends | 49 | 52 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
TSCO ranks #27 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for TSCO
Each factor is rated by where TSCO stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 4 Good · 11 Average · 7 Bad of 22
Growth: 0 · 2 · 1
Profitability: 1 · 3 · 1
Financial strength: 0 · 4 · 0
Valuation: 3 · 1 · 1
Cash flow: 0 · 1 · 3
Efficiency: 0 · 0 · 1
| Factor | TSCO | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +3.0% | Bad beats 23% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +4.3% | Average beats 45% | +4.9% | +4.3% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +2.0% | Average beats 43% | +4.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 36.5% | Average beats 37% | 42.5% | 35.9% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | Bad beats 26% | 14.9% | 10.1% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 11.9% | Average beats 58% | 11.4% | 7.6% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 23.4% | Average beats 42% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 71.5% | Good beats 85% | 35.3% | 49.8% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.0x | Average beats 65% | 1.8x | 0.7x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | 19.8x | Average beats 47% | 25.3x | 31.8x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.33 | Average beats 62% | 1.10 | 1.43 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | Average beats 49% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 9.7x | Good beats 94% | 21.1x | 24.1x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 6.9x | Average beats 51% | 7.2x | 11.7x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 1.2x | Good beats 78% | 2.1x | 1.8x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.9x | Good beats 70% | 15.0x | 14.7x | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow yield | 1.7% | Bad beats 10% | 4.3% | 2.4% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 1.9% | Bad beats 8% | 10.8% | 4.1% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash from operations / net income | 0.68 | Bad beats 1% | 1.37 | 1.25 | ▼ Worse |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +8.3% | Average beats 41% | +12.1% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | +4.9% | Bad beats 1% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 2.8x | Bad beats 24% | 4.2x | 3.4x | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 2 Good · ● 10 Average · ● 4 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Average
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverAverage
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityAverage
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 43/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B | $14.2B | $14.6B | $14.9B | $15.5B |
| Operating income | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Net income | $997M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Operating margin | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| Free cash flow | $510M | $584M | $580M | $637M | $740M |
| Diluted EPS | $8.61 | $1.94 | $2.02 | $2.04 | $2.06 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
10 bullish · 2 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Neutral
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 33.33 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 33.23 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 32.65 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 33.03 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 33.55 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 33.02 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 32.20 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 33.94 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 38.21 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 37.51 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 62.06 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.15 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 7.56 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 94.15 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -5.85 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 65.23 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 26.28 | S2 28.09 | S1 31.41 | Pivot 33.22 | R1 36.54 | R2 38.35 | R3 41.67 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
0.95 USD
Yield on today's price
2.74%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.2400 | |
| 0.2400 | |
| 0.2400 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 1.1000 | |
| 1.1000 | |
| 1.1000 | |
| 1.1000 | |
| 1.0300 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold TSCO
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| XRT SPDR S&P Retail | 1.39% |
| MOAT VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat | 1.28% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 0.41% |
| JAVA JPMorgan Active Value | 0.31% |
| CGDG Capital Group Dividend Growers | 0.30% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 0.30% |
| VCR Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 0.27% |
| AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value | 0.27% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in TSCO among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
TSCO stock splits
TSCO has split its stock 5 times since 2002. The latest was a 5-for-1 split on 20 Dec 2024.
Full TSCO stock split history →TSCO SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.