Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines · US stock · S&P 500 component
$15.10
▼ -0.44 (2.83%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$22 +44.8% to fair value
$11fair band $19–$26$33
Day's range
$14.54 – $15.11
52-week range
$13.63 – $25.13
About Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Three cruise brands sit under Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, which together span the mainstream, upper premium and luxury segments. Its ships sail to destinations around the world, carrying holidaymakers who book through travel agents or directly with the company. The group also operates private destinations that its ships visit, giving guests beach and leisure stops as part of the voyage.
Passenger ticket sales and onboard spending on drinks, dining, excursions and extras generate the revenue. Over the last twelve months the business brought in $10.2 billion, and it has grown at 26.6% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 15.1%, and the business earns a profit of 8% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 5.5 times EBITDA. No dividend is paid. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 47 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $13.63 – $25.13Volume 22,344,948Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$7.0B
52-week range$13.63 – $25.13
Volume (last day)22,344,948
P/E (TTM)9.4
EBIT / EV yield7.0%
Free-cash-flow yield-16.9%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$10.2B
Net income (TTM)$761M
Operating margin15.1%
Return on capital7.9%
Debt incl. leases$15.0B
Cash & securities$218M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$22middle half of models $18 – $27
Undervalued
+44.8% to fair value
Average of the 6 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $15
Undervalued < $19Fair $19 – $26Overvalued > $26
P/E multiple
$17
P/B multiple
$27
P/S multiple · not used
$33
EV/EBITDA multiple
$25
EV/EBIT multiple
$21
EV/revenue multiple
$29
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit · not used
$2
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$12
Growth the price implies
12.7%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 4.96%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
61/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield7.0%
Free-cash-flow yield-16.9%
Fair value vs price1.4×
Growth
Fair
61/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)26.6%
Growth consistency90%
Profitability
Weak
26/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital7.9%
Operating margin15.1%
Gross profitability18.0%
Financial health
Weak
41/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA5.5×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-2.9%
Mar '25
+6.1%
Jun '25
+4.7%
Sep '25
+6.4%
Dec '25
+9.6%
Mar '26
+4.9%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $2.6B, diluted EPS $0.48.
Compare with peers
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc.70 EXPE Expedia Group, Inc.62 CCL Carnival Corp Ltd.56 ABNB Airbnb, Inc.52Other Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Strengthsinside the company
- Revenue has grown 26.6% a year over three years (median 13.4% for industry peers).
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital of 7.9% is well below the 19.5% median of industry peers.
- Free cash flow is negative, so spending or debt has to be financed from outside.
- Net debt is 5.5x EBITDA, above the 3x level that lenders usually watch.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Trades at 9.5x earnings, 67% below the 28.4x median of industry peers.
- The price is 45% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth slowed to 3.7% last year from 26.6% a year over three years.
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- The price trend is down on the daily and weekly signals.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare NCLH with peers and sector
Medians of 7 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): BKNG 70, MAR 42, ABNB 52, HLT 39, RCL 43, CCL 56.
| Metric | NCLH | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 47 | 52 | 51 |
| Valuation | 62 | 24 | 48 |
| Growth | 60 | 77 | 50 |
| Profitability | 26 | 52 | 52 |
| Financial health | 41 | 43 | 50 |
| Dividends | – | 40 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
NCLH ranks #30 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary and #5 of 8 in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for NCLH
Each factor is rated by where NCLH stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 9 Good · 6 Average · 6 Bad of 21
Growth: 1 · 1 · 0
Profitability: 0 · 3 · 2
Financial strength: 2 · 0 · 2
Valuation: 4 · 0 · 1
Cash flow: 1 · 1 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 1 · 0
| Factor | NCLH | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +26.6% | Good beats 92% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +3.7% | Average beats 40% | +4.9% | +10.9% | ▼ Worse |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 42.5% | Average beats 50% | 42.5% | 36.0% | ▲ Better |
| Operating margin | 15.1% | Average beats 52% | 14.9% | 10.9% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 7.5% | Bad beats 32% | 11.4% | 1.9% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 7.9% | Bad beats 18% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 29.6% | Average beats 40% | 35.3% | 19.2% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 5.5x | Bad beats 7% | 1.8x | 5.3x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 76% | 25.3x | -1.2x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 0.20 | Bad beats 1% | 1.10 | 0.22 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 76% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 9.5x | Good beats 97% | 21.1x | 25.2x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 2.8x | Good beats 76% | 7.2x | 9.3x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 0.7x | Good beats 84% | 2.1x | 1.1x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.1x | Good beats 86% | 15.0x | 10.7x | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow yield | -16.4% | Bad beats 1% | 4.3% | -11.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | -11.7% | Bad beats 1% | 10.8% | -11.9% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.77 | Good beats 83% | 1.37 | 4.94 | ▼ Worse |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −5.6% | Average beats 56% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 36.2x | Good beats 98% | 4.2x | 34.7x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 10 days | Average beats 58% | 14 days | 12 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 6 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 47/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $648M | $4.8B | $8.5B | $9.5B | $9.8B |
| Operating income | −$2.6B | −$1.6B | $931M | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Net income | −$4.5B | −$2.3B | $166M | $910M | $423M |
| Operating cash flow | −$2.5B | $210M | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.1B |
| Operating margin | -393.9% | -32.0% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| Free cash flow | −$3.2B | −$1.6B | −$745M | $839M | −$1.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $-12.33 | $-5.41 | $0.39 | $1.89 | $0.92 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bearish
1 bullish · 4 neutral · 11 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 11 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 15.31 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 15.31 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 15.16 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 15.24 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 15.51 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 15.81 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 17.57 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 16.88 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 18.88 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 18.25 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 47.26 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | 0.33 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 35.00 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -65.00 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | -56.54 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 14.15 | S2 14.35 | S1 14.72 | Pivot 14.92 | R1 15.29 | R2 15.49 | R3 15.86 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold NCLH
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta | 1.24% |
| CGGR Capital Group Growth | 0.26% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 0.24% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 0.20% |
| RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight | 0.20% |
| AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value | 0.20% |
| JHMM John Hancock Multifactor Mid Cap | 0.18% |
| VCR Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 0.17% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in NCLH among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
NCLH SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement; Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.