Health Care · Biotechnology · US stock · price as of 22 Oct 2026
Key indicators
Price
$202.63
52-week range
$22.28 – $254.48
Market cap
$80.6B
P/E (trailing)
–
EV / EBITDA
–
Free-cash-flow yield
−1.5%
Dividend yield
–
Revenue (last 12 months)
$2.2B
Revenue growth (3y a year)
−53.4%
Operating margin
−149.0%
Return on invested capital
−91.3%
Net debt / EBITDA
–
Fair value
Fair value (average of valid models)$107.39 middle half of models $97 – $117
Versus priceOvervalued−47% to fair value
P/B multiple
$113.25
P/S multiple
$98.78
EV/revenue multiple
$127.85
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$89.69
Model uncertainty
Medium
X-Ray Score
12/ 100 · Medium confidence · ahead of 0% of sector peers
Valuation2
Growth1
Profitability18
Financial health28
Dividends–
Five-year price chart navy: price · brown: 200-day average · blue band: fair value range
Executive summary
Messenger RNA is the technology behind the medicines and vaccines that Moderna, a biotechnology company, develops. Its marketed products include a vaccine against the coronavirus that causes COVID and a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus. Its research pipeline covers infectious disease, cancer and rare conditions. Customers are governments, health systems, pharmacies and distributors that purchase its vaccines.
Vaccine supply to governments and healthcare providers is the main source of revenue, together with some collaboration income. Revenue was $2.2 billion over the last twelve months and has changed at -53.4% a year across the last three years, a very steep decline. The operating margin is -149.0%, a large operating loss, and the business earns -91% on the capital invested in it. No dividend is paid.
StocksXray gives Moderna, Inc. an X-Ray Score of 12 out of 100 (medium confidence), ahead of 0% of the S&P 500 stocks in its sector. Its strongest lens is financial health (28) and its weakest is growth (1).
Our fair value (the average of the valid models) is $107.39 (range $96.51 to $116.90). At $202.63 the stock trades 89% above that value, so the label is "Overvalued" with medium model uncertainty. Fair value is a range, not a price target.
XStocksXray
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Valuation history multiples at each fiscal year-end price; the last column uses today's price and the last twelve months
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Now
Price
$253.98
$179.62
$99.45
$41.58
$29.49
$202.63
Market cap
$109.5B
$74.7B
$38.0B
$16.0B
$11.5B
$80.6B
P/E
9.0×
8.9×
–
–
–
–
EV / revenue
5.3×
3.4×
4.3×
2.8×
3.2×
34.2×
EV / EBITDA
7.3×
6.6×
–
–
–
–
Price / free cash flow
8.2×
16.3×
–
–
–
–
Free-cash-flow yield
12.2%
6.1%
−10.1%
−25.4%
−18.0%
−1.5%
Price / book
7.7×
3.9×
2.7×
1.5×
1.3×
11.9×
Dividend yield
–
–
–
–
–
–
Fundamentals checklist ● 2 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 9 Bad · each check graded against the sector
Cash quality
Earnings backed by cash−19.0%Good
Free-cash-flow yield−1.5%Bad
Risk models
Altman Z score3.1×Average
Piotroski F-Score3 of 9Bad
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)−53.4%Bad
Growth consistency30%Bad
Balance sheet
Current ratio2.3×Good
Valuation
Fair value vs price0.5×Bad
EBIT / EV yield−4.3%Bad
Profitability
Return on invested capital−91.3%Bad
Operating margin−149.0%Bad
Gross profitability4.8%Bad
XStocksXray
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Financials US$ millions, from SEC filings; last column is the last twelve months
Income statement
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Revenue
18,471
19,263
6,848
3,236
1,944
2,228
Gross profit
15,854
13,847
2,155
1,772
1,076
521
Operating income
13,296
9,420
-4,239
-3,945
-3,074
-3,320
Net income
12,202
8,362
-4,714
-3,561
-2,822
-3,151
Diluted EPS ($)
28.29
20.12
-12.33
-9.28
-7.26
-8.02
Free cash flow
13,336
4,581
-3,825
-4,055
-2,065
-1,244
Gross margin
85.8%
71.9%
31.5%
54.8%
55.3%
23.4%
Operating margin
72.0%
48.9%
−61.9%
−121.9%
−158.1%
−149.0%
Net margin
66.1%
43.4%
−68.8%
−110.0%
−145.2%
−141.4%
Balance sheet
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY25
LTM
Total assets
24,669
25,858
18,426
14,142
12,338
10,961
Cash
6,848
3,205
2,907
1,927
2,595
1,723
Total debt
–
–
–
0
590
591
Equity
14,145
19,123
13,854
10,901
8,650
6,761
Dividend per share ($)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Revenue and net income US$ billions: navy revenue, teal net income
Every number comes from SEC filings, end-of-day prices and the StocksXray models described on the methodology page. The X-Ray Score ranks each metric against the company's own sector. Fair value is the average of up to 15 valuation models, most of them anchored to the company's own multiples, so it stays near the price and should be read as a range, not a point. Analyst ratings, price targets and earnings-call summaries are not part of this report. Educational research, not financial advice; read the disclaimer.
