Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Health Care · Biotechnology · US stock · S&P 500 component

$202.63 ▼ -43.18 (17.57%)

At close 22 Oct 2026 · USD · Volume 49,812,057

Compare with AMGN

Interactive chart Research report Forecast ranges Pro workspace SEC filings Historical data

Fair valueOvervalued

$107 −47.0% to fair value

$54fair band $91–$130$161

Day's range

$180.80 – $241.26

52-week range

$22.28 – $254.48

About Moderna, Inc.

Messenger RNA is the technology behind the medicines and vaccines that Moderna, a biotechnology company, develops. Its marketed products include a vaccine against the coronavirus that causes COVID and a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus. Its research pipeline covers infectious disease, cancer and rare conditions. Customers are governments, health systems, pharmacies and distributors that purchase its vaccines.

Vaccine supply to governments and healthcare providers is the main source of revenue, together with some collaboration income. Revenue was $2.2 billion over the last twelve months and has changed at -53.4% a year across the last three years, a very steep decline. The operating margin is -149.0%, a large operating loss, and the business earns -91% on the capital invested in it. No dividend is paid. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 12 out of 100.

MRNA news

Moderna shares fall 17.57% as leaked cancer vaccine data hits stock20 hours ago Moderna draws Monday attention after a 7.82% fall on Friday3 days ago

All MRNA news →

Price chart

Interactive chart Historical data & CSV

52-wk range $22.28 – $254.48Volume 49,812,057Daily, split-adjusted

Vitals

Market cap$80.6B

52-week range$22.28 – $254.48

Volume (last day)49,812,057

P/E (TTM)–

EBIT / EV yield-4.3%

Free-cash-flow yield-1.5%

Dividend yieldNo dividend

Revenue (TTM)$2.2B

Net income (TTM)−$3.2B

Operating margin-149.0%

Return on capital-91.3%

Debt incl. leases$1.3B

Cash & securities$5.1B

Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.

Fair value estimate

$107middle half of models $97 – $117

Overvalued −47.0% to fair value

Average of the 4 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.

Price $203

Undervalued < $91Fair $91 – $130Overvalued > $130

P/B multiple

$113

P/S multiple

$99

EV/revenue multiple

$128

10-year DCF, revenue exit · not used

$43

5-year DCF, revenue exit

$90

A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.

What this means

Weak business, priced high

Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.

Before you invest · decision checklist

I understand how this company makes money Business quality is average or better 23 The price is not above fair value $107 fair value Debt looks manageable Revenue has been growing -53.4% a year Profits are backed by cash There are no red flags none raised I know what share of my savings this would be

Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.

The five-lens scan

Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Health Care peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.

Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data

Valuation Weak

2/100

Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.

See the numbers →

EBIT / EV yield-4.3%

Free-cash-flow yield-1.5%

Fair value vs price0.5×

Growth Weak

1/100

Growing slower than most of its sector.

See the numbers →

Revenue growth (3y)-53.4%

Growth consistency30%

Profitability Weak

18/100

Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.

See the numbers →

Return on invested capital-91.3%

Operating margin-149.0%

Gross profitability4.8%

Financial health Weak

28/100

Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.

See the numbers →

Piotroski F-Score3 / 9

Dividends None

–/100

Pays no dividend.

See the numbers →

Quarterly results: last 6 quarters

-35.3%

Mar '25

-41.1%

Jun '25

-45.4%

Sep '25

-29.8%

Dec '25

+260.2%

Mar '26

+2.1%

Jun '26

Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $145M, diluted EPS $-1.97.

Compare with peers

INCY Incyte Corp80 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals...50 AMGN Amgen Inc48 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceutic...47

Other Biotechnology companies by X-Ray Score.

SWOT analysis: Moderna, Inc.

Strengthsinside the company

No standout strength in the figures we track.

Weaknessesinside the company

Return on invested capital is only -91.3% (median 17.7% for industry peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
Operating margin of -149.0% is thin against 26.2% for industry peers.
Revenue has fallen 53.4% a year over three years while industry peers grew 5.6%.
Free cash flow is negative, so spending or debt has to be financed from outside.

Opportunitiesvaluation and setting

Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).

Threatsvaluation and setting

The price is 47% above our fair value estimate, so there is little room for disappointment.

Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.

Compare MRNA with peers and sector

Medians of 7 Biotechnology peers and of 59 Health Care stocks in our universe. Largest peers (X-Ray Score): ABBV 41, AMGN 48, GILD 37, VRTX 50, REGN 47, BIIB 44.

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
X-Ray Score (out of 100)	12	47	49
Valuation	2	36	55
Growth	1	45	48
Profitability	18	55	51
Financial health	28	55	48
Dividends	–	51	51

Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Health Care

MRNA ranks #60 of 60 in Health Care and #8 of 8 in Biotechnology by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.

Company	X-Ray Score
#1 INCY Incyte Corp	80
#2 DXCM Dexcom Inc	78
#3 PODD Insulet Corp	72
#4 RMD Resmed Inc	70
#5 ZTS Zoetis Inc.	69
…
#60 MRNA Moderna, Inc. (this stock)	12

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
P/E ratio	–	27.6x	28.2x
PEG ratio	–	5.05	2.35
Price / book	11.9x	5.5x	3.7x
Price / sales	36.2x	6.4x	3.6x
EV / EBITDA	–	19.4x	17.6x
Price / free cash flow	–	23.5x	22.4x
Dividend yield	–	2.1%	1.0%
Gap to our fair value	−47.0%	−12.6%	−1.0%

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
Price change, 1 month	+11.0%	+3.9%	+7.6%
Price change, 3 months	+248.9%	+21.3%	+13.3%
Price change, 6 months	+264.4%	+22.3%	+22.1%
Price change, 1 year	+654.7%	+32.8%	+20.7%

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
Market value	$80.6B	$136.6B	$49.2B
Revenue (last 12 months)	$2.2B	$15.5B	$14.7B
EBITDA (last 12 months)	−$3.1B	$4.4B	$2.7B
Net income (last 12 months)	−$3.2B	$4.3B	$1.4B
Free cash flow (last 12 months)	−$1.2B	$7.0B	$2.3B

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
Revenue growth, last year	−39.9%	+8.6%	+7.2%
Revenue growth, 3 years a year	−53.4%	+5.6%	+5.6%
EPS growth, 3 years a year	–	+5.5%	+5.0%
Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year	–	−2.7%	+4.3%
Dividend growth	–	+5.1%	+4.2%

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
Gross margin	23.4%	77.5%	65.0%
EBITDA margin	-138.7%	28.1%	21.2%
Operating margin	-149.0%	26.2%	16.9%
Net margin	-141.4%	23.0%	12.3%
Return on invested capital	-91.3%	17.7%	12.5%
Return on equity	-46.6%	17.7%	13.7%

Metric	MRNA	Peers	Sector
Net debt / EBITDA	–	1.9x	2.0x
Interest cover	–	6.9x	9.4x
Current ratio	2.3x	3.1x	1.5x
Piotroski F-score (0 to 9)	3	7	6

Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.

Factor ratings for MRNA

Each factor is rated by where MRNA stands among the 60 Health Care stocks in our universe.

Rating against the sector

Goodthe top third of these stocks

Averagethe middle third of these stocks

Badthe bottom third of these stocks

"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.

Against its own history

The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:

▲ Betterbetter than its usual level

▼ Worseworse than its usual level

≈ In linewithin its usual range

For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.

In total: 4 Good · 0 Average · 12 Bad of 16 Growth: 0 · 0 · 2 Profitability: 0 · 0 · 5 Financial strength: 1 · 0 · 1 Valuation: 0 · 0 · 3 Cash flow: 1 · 0 · 1 Efficiency: 2 · 0 · 0

Factor	MRNA	Rating	Sector median	Own 5-year median	Against own history
Growth
Revenue growth, 3 years a year	−53.4%	Bad beats 1%	+5.5%	–	–
Revenue growth, last year	−39.9%	Bad beats 1%	+7.1%	−39.9%	≈ In line
Profitability
Gross margin	23.4%	Bad beats 11%	65.0%	55.3%	▼ Worse
Operating margin	-149.0%	Bad beats 1%	16.4%	-61.9%	▼ Worse
Net margin	-141.4%	Bad beats 1%	11.1%	-68.8%	▼ Worse
Return on invested capital	-91.3%	Bad beats 1%	12.2%	–	–
Return on equity	-46.6%	Bad beats 1%	13.7%	-32.6%	▼ Worse
Financial strength
Current ratio	2.29	Good beats 79%	1.52	3.29	▼ Worse
Piotroski F-score	3 / 9	Bad beats 2%	6 / 9	–	–
Valuation
Price / book	11.9x	Bad beats 14%	3.7x	2.7x	▼ Worse
Price / sales	36.2x	Bad beats 1%	3.7x	5.5x	▼ Worse
Free cash flow yield	-1.5%	Bad beats 1%	4.4%	-10.1%	▲ Better
Cash flow
Free cash flow margin	-55.8%	Bad beats 1%	16.3%	-55.9%	≈ In line
Accruals (lower is better)	−19.0%	Good beats 97%	−3.9%	–	–
Efficiency
Inventory turnover	6.1x	Good beats 80%	2.9x	5.7x	≈ In line
Days sales outstanding	3 days	Good beats 99%	62 days	40 days	▲ Better

These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.

Fundamentals checklist

● 2 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 9 Bad

Cash quality

Earnings backed by cashGood

Free-cash-flow yieldBad

Risk models

Altman Z''Average

Piotroski F-ScoreBad

Growth

Revenue growth (3y)Bad

Growth consistencyBad

Balance sheet

Current ratioGood

Valuation

Fair value vs priceBad

EBIT / EV yieldBad

Profitability

Return on invested capitalBad

Operating marginBad

Gross profitabilityBad

Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 24/100.

Financials

	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue	$18.5B	$19.3B	$6.8B	$3.2B	$1.9B
Operating income	$13.3B	$9.4B	−$4.2B	−$3.9B	−$3.1B
Net income	$12.2B	$8.4B	−$4.7B	−$3.6B	−$2.8B
Operating cash flow	$13.6B	$5.0B	−$3.1B	−$3.0B	−$1.9B
Operating margin	72.0%	48.9%	-61.9%	-121.9%	-158.1%
Free cash flow	$13.3B	$4.6B	−$3.8B	−$4.1B	−$2.1B
Diluted EPS	$28.29	$20.12	$-12.33	$-9.28	$-7.26

Fiscal years, from SEC filings.

Technical summary

Daily

Bullish

8 bullish · 4 neutral · 4 bearish

Weekly

Strongly bullish

11 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish

Monthly

Strongly bullish

7 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish

Moving averages (daily)

SMA 10	225.3	Bearish
EMA 10	221.3	Bearish
SMA 20	210.4	Bearish
EMA 20	208.8	Bearish
SMA 50	168.4	Bullish
EMA 50	172.0	Bullish
SMA 100	114.3	Bullish
EMA 100	133.9	Bullish
SMA 200	81.34	Bullish
EMA 200	98.61	Bullish

Oscillators (daily)

RSI (14)	51.02	Neutral
MACD (12, 26)	18.22	Bullish
Momentum (12)	8.09	Bullish
Stochastic %K (14)	29.63	Neutral
Williams %R (14)	-70.37	Neutral
CCI (20)	-4.91	Neutral

Pivot points (classic, last session)

114.7

147.8

175.2

Pivot

208.2

235.7

268.7

296.1

Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.

ETFs that hold MRNA

ETF	Share of the fund
IBB iShares Biotechnology	1.98%
XBI SPDR S&P Biotech	1.41%
SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta	0.93%
LABU Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X	0.81%
VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value	0.54%
XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR	0.43%
CGGR Capital Group Growth	0.39%
SMLF iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Multifactor	0.37%

The eight funds with the largest weight in MRNA among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.