ELI LILLY & Co (LLY)
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals · US stock · S&P 500 component
$1,306.69
▲ +35.94 (2.83%)
Fair valueFair
$1,220 −6.7% to fair value
$610fair band $1,038–$1,479$1,830
Day's range
$1,275.10 – $1,321.21
52-week range
$793.82 – $1,321.21
About ELI LILLY & Co
Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and sells medicines. Its portfolio covers diabetes and obesity, cancer, immunology and neuroscience, and it markets products in many countries through its own sales organization and distribution partners. Revenue comes from prescription drug sales, which depend on patent protection, regulatory approvals and insurance reimbursement. The company spends heavily on research, and results reflect the success of its development pipeline.
Revenue has grown 31.7% a year over three years, leaving the last twelve months at $79.7 billion. Operating margin is 42.7%. Return on invested capital comes to 34%. On leverage, net debt to EBITDA is 1.3 times. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 0.5%. This gives an X-Ray Score of 62 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $793.82 – $1,321.21Volume 2,654,387Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$1.17T
52-week range$793.82 – $1,321.21
Volume (last day)2,654,387
P/E (TTM)43.9
EBIT / EV yield2.8%
Free-cash-flow yield–
Dividend yield0.5%
Revenue (TTM)$79.7B
Net income (TTM)$26.7B
Operating margin42.7%
Return on capital33.9%
Debt incl. leases$54.9B
Cash & securities$9.0B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$1,220middle half of models $1,062 – $1,588
Fair
−6.7% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so multiples applied to today's profit may overstate value; model uncertainty is set to High
Price $1,307
Undervalued < $1,038Fair $1,038 – $1,479Overvalued > $1,479
P/E multiple
$1,345
P/B multiple
$1,274
P/S multiple
$1,062
EV/EBITDA multiple
$1,214
EV/EBIT multiple
$1,457
EV/revenue multiple
$1,127
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$1,603
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$1,657
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$1,588
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$1,610
10-year DCF, growth exit
$709
5-year DCF, growth exit
$631
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$582
Earnings power value · not used
$517
Growth the price implies
24.7%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Health Care peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
32/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield2.8%
Fair value vs price0.9×
Growth
Strong
90/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)31.7%
EPS growth (3y)49.3%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Fair
62/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital33.9%
Operating margin42.7%
Gross profitability46.7%
Financial health
Fair
69/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score8 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
63/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield0.5%
Dividend growth15.0%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+45.2%
Mar '25
+37.6%
Jun '25
+53.9%
Sep '25
+42.6%
Dec '25
+55.5%
Mar '26
+47.7%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $23.0B, diluted EPS $7.94.
Compare with peers
ZTS Zoetis Inc.69 BMY Bristol Myers Squibb C...60 JNJ Johnson & Johnson49 MRK Merck & Co., Inc.33Other Pharmaceuticals companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: ELI LILLY & Co
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 33.9%, against a median of 12.7% for industry peers.
- Operating margin of 42.7% is well above the 19.2% median of industry peers, a sign of pricing power or lower costs.
- Revenue has grown 31.7% a year over three years (median 2.3% for industry peers).
- Earnings per share have compounded at 49.3% a year over three years.
Weaknessesinside the company
- No clear weakness in the figures we track.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 44.7% last year from 31.7% a year over three years.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 43.7x earnings, 41% above the 31.0x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare LLY with peers and sector
Medians of 6 Pharmaceuticals peers and of 59 Health Care stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): JNJ 49, MRK 33, PFE 31, BMY 60, ZTS 69, VTRS 25.
| Metric | LLY | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 62 | 41 | 49 |
| Valuation | 32 | 55 | 55 |
| Growth | 90 | 33 | 47 |
| Profitability | 62 | 51 | 49 |
| Financial health | 69 | 36 | 48 |
| Dividends | 63 | 53 | 50 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Health Care
LLY ranks #14 of 60 in Health Care and #2 of 7 in Pharmaceuticals by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for LLY
Each factor is rated by where LLY stands among the 60 Health Care stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 12 Good · 1 Average · 8 Bad of 21
Growth: 3 · 0 · 0
Profitability: 5 · 0 · 0
Financial strength: 3 · 1 · 0
Valuation: 0 · 0 · 4
Cash flow: 1 · 0 · 2
Efficiency: 0 · 0 · 2
| Factor | LLY | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +31.7% | Good beats 99% | +5.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +44.7% | Good beats 99% | +7.1% | +19.6% | ▲ Better |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +49.3% | Good beats 90% | +5.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 83.4% | Good beats 91% | 65.0% | 79.2% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 42.7% | Good beats 99% | 16.4% | 25.0% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 33.5% | Good beats 97% | 11.1% | 21.9% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 33.9% | Good beats 88% | 12.2% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 78.8% | Good beats 93% | 13.7% | 62.2% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.3x | Good beats 68% | 2.0x | 1.8x | ▲ Better |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 82% | 9.4x | 19.1x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 1.35 | Average beats 41% | 1.52 | 1.15 | ▲ Better |
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | Good beats 85% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 43.7x | Bad beats 24% | 28.2x | 53.0x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 34.5x | Bad beats 3% | 3.7x | 36.4x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 14.7x | Bad beats 4% | 3.7x | 14.8x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 33.6x | Bad beats 17% | 17.6x | 40.0x | ▲ Better |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 35.3% | Good beats 96% | 16.3% | 25.8% | ▲ Better |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.05 | Bad beats 5% | 1.61 | 0.83 | ▲ Better |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −1.0% | Bad beats 6% | −3.9% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 0.8x | Bad beats 1% | 2.9x | 1.2x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 92 days | Bad beats 10% | 62 days | 89 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 9 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 2 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginGood
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 60/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.3B | $28.5B | $34.1B | $45.0B | $65.2B |
| Operating income | $6.5B | $7.1B | $7.0B | $13.5B | $26.6B |
| Net income | $5.6B | $6.2B | $5.2B | $10.6B | $20.6B |
| Operating cash flow | $7.4B | $7.6B | $4.2B | $8.8B | $16.8B |
| Operating margin | 22.9% | 25.0% | 20.6% | 29.9% | 40.9% |
| Free cash flow | – | – | – | – | – |
| Diluted EPS | $6.12 | $6.90 | $5.80 | $11.71 | $22.95 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 0 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 1,234.7 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 1,245.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 1,200.4 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 1,216.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 1,185.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 1,188.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 1,174.1 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 1,155.2 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 1,082.0 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 1,091.4 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 70.74 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 30.17 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 12.89 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 92.36 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -7.64 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 162.2 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 1,234.7 | S2 1,254.9 | S1 1,280.8 | Pivot 1,301.0 | R1 1,326.9 | R2 1,347.1 | R3 1,373.0 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
6.69 USD
Yield on today's price
0.51%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1.7300 | |
| 1.7300 | |
| 1.7300 | |
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.5000 | |
| 1.3000 | |
| 1.3000 | |
| 1.3000 | |
| 1.3000 | |
| 1.1300 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold LLY
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| IHE iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals | 22.25% |
| PPH VanEck Pharmaceutical | 20.23% |
| XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 16.51% |
| IYH iShares U.S. Healthcare | 15.11% |
| VHT Vanguard Health Care | 14.04% |
| FHLC Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index | 13.35% |
| IXJ iShares Global Healthcare | 10.93% |
| CURE Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X | 10.41% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in LLY among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
LLY stock splits
LLY has split its stock 2 times since 1995. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 16 Oct 1997.
Full LLY stock split history →LLY SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
10-KSEC EDGAR
Annual report
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.