Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
Information Technology · Communications Equipment · US stock · S&P 500 component
$752.54
▼ -98.16 (11.54%)
Fair valueOvervalued
$543 −27.8% to fair value
$272fair band $462–$658$815
Day's range
$746.23 – $811.00
52-week range
$152.54 – $1,143.00
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Optical and photonic products are the core of Lumentum, which designs and manufactures lasers and the optical components that move data through communication networks. Its products go into cloud data centres, telecom networks and industrial and commercial laser applications. Customers include network equipment makers, cloud and telecom operators and industrial manufacturers. The business is organised around components for cloud and networking on one side and lasers for industrial uses on the other.
Over the last twelve months revenue reached $3.0 billion, earned by supplying optical components and lasers to equipment makers and network operators. Sales have grown at 19.5% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 17.4%, the business earns 8% on the capital invested in it, and it carries net debt of 1.0 times EBITDA. No dividend is paid. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 35 out of 100.
LITE news
All LITE news →Price chart
52-wk range $152.54 – $1,143.00Volume 6,124,600Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$56.1B
52-week range$152.54 – $1,143.00
Volume (last day)6,124,600
P/E (TTM)–
EBIT / EV yield0.9%
Free-cash-flow yield0.5%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$3.0B
Net income (TTM)−$6.9B
Operating margin17.4%
Return on capital8.0%
Debt incl. leases$3.3B
Cash & securities$2.7B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$543middle half of models $469 – $637
Overvalued
−27.8% to fair value
Average of the 9 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Peak-cycle earnings: the current operating margin is more than 1.5x its 7-year average, so multiples applied to today's profit may overstate value; model uncertainty is set to High
Price $753
Undervalued < $462Fair $462 – $658Overvalued > $658
P/B multiple
$469
P/S multiple
$418
EV/EBITDA multiple
$524
EV/EBIT multiple
$410
EV/revenue multiple
$501
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$540
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$669
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$637
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$722
10-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$58
5-year DCF, growth exit · not used
$82
Earnings power value · not used
$59
Growth the price implies
49.1%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, priced high
Our models put fair value below today's price, so a lot of good news may already be in the price. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Information Technology peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
6/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield0.9%
Free-cash-flow yield0.5%
Fair value vs price0.7×
Growth
Strong
75/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)19.5%
Growth consistency80%
Profitability
Weak
36/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital8.0%
Operating margin17.4%
Gross profitability17.2%
Financial health
Weak
32/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score5 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.0×
Interest cover24.1×
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+16.0%
Mar '25
+55.9%
Jun '25
+58.4%
Sep '25
+65.5%
Dec '25
+90.1%
Mar '26
+109.3%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $1.0B.
Compare with peers
ANET Arista Networks, Inc.62 FFIV F5, Inc.55 MSI Motorola Solutions, In...48 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc.42Other Communications Equipment companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Revenue has grown 19.5% a year over three years (median 8.6% for industry peers).
- Operating profit covers interest 24x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital of 8.0% is well below the 21.6% median of industry peers.
- Altman Z-score of 0.3 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 83.2% last year from 19.5% a year over three years.
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Information Technology as favourable.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- The price is 28% above our fair value estimate, so there is little room for disappointment.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare LITE with peers and sector
Medians of 5 Communications Equipment peers and of 74 Information Technology stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): CSCO 42, ANET 62, MSI 48, CIEN 40, FFIV 55.
| Metric | LITE | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 35 | 48 | 50 |
| Valuation | 6 | 40 | 52 |
| Growth | 75 | 52 | 54 |
| Profitability | 35 | 55 | 50 |
| Financial health | 31 | 54 | 50 |
| Dividends | – | – | 50 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Information Technology
LITE ranks #66 of 75 in Information Technology and #6 of 6 in Communications Equipment by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for LITE
Each factor is rated by where LITE stands among the 75 Information Technology stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 4 Good · 5 Average · 9 Bad of 18
Growth: 2 · 0 · 0
Profitability: 0 · 1 · 4
Financial strength: 0 · 3 · 1
Valuation: 0 · 1 · 3
Cash flow: 2 · 0 · 1
| Factor | LITE | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +19.5% | Good beats 82% | +9.7% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +83.2% | Good beats 97% | +13.7% | +3.2% | ▲ Better |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 41.7% | Bad beats 21% | 57.8% | 32.2% | ▲ Better |
| Operating margin | 17.4% | Average beats 43% | 20.3% | -6.5% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | -230.1% | Bad beats 1% | 17.8% | -7.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 8.0% | Bad beats 22% | 19.4% | – | – |
| Return on equity | -149.3% | Bad beats 1% | 21.0% | -9.7% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.0x | Average beats 41% | 0.8x | – | – |
| Interest cover | 24.1x | Average beats 51% | 23.0x | -3.3x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 1.68 | Average beats 57% | 1.57 | 4.38 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | Bad beats 21% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| Price / book | 12.1x | Average beats 38% | 8.3x | 3.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 18.6x | Bad beats 10% | 6.9x | 3.4x | ▼ Worse |
| EV / EBITDA | 108.0x | Bad beats 9% | 24.7x | – | – |
| Free cash flow yield | 0.5% | Bad beats 6% | 3.4% | 0.5% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 10.0% | Bad beats 15% | 22.3% | 2.9% | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +80.2% | Good beats 93% | +15.4% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −105.2% | Good beats 99% | −4.4% | – | – |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 3 Good · ● 4 Average · ● 8 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverAverage
Valuation
Fair value vs priceBad
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 40/100.
Financials
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $3.0B |
| Operating income | $303M | −$116M | −$434M | −$180M | $525M |
| Net income | $199M | −$132M | −$547M | $26M | −$6.9B |
| Operating cash flow | $459M | $180M | $25M | $126M | $751M |
| Operating margin | 17.7% | -6.5% | -31.9% | -10.9% | 17.4% |
| Free cash flow | $368M | $51M | −$108M | −$105M | $300M |
| Diluted EPS | $2.68 | $-1.93 | $-8.12 | $0.37 | $-92.96 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bearish
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 12 bearish
Weekly
Bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 893.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 874.2 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 963.0 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 916.2 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 927.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 915.5 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 872.3 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 874.6 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 786.2 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 760.0 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 34.09 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -34.86 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -33.60 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 1.59 | Bullish |
| Williams %R (14) | -98.41 | Bullish |
| CCI (20) | -139.5 | Bullish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 664.1 | S2 705.2 | S1 728.8 | Pivot 769.9 | R1 793.6 | R2 834.7 | R3 858.4 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold LITE
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| ULTY YieldMax Ultra Option Income Strategy | 3.53% |
| IYZ iShares U.S. Telecommunications | 3.19% |
| WTAI WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and... | 1.90% |
| IWP iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth | 1.67% |
| JTEK JPMorgan U.S. Tech Leaders | 1.48% |
| VOT Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth | 1.47% |
| CHAT Roundhill Generative AI & Technology | 1.37% |
| SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap | 1.29% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in LITE among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
LITE SEC filings
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
10-KSEC EDGAR
Annual report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
8-KSEC EDGAR
Current report
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Current report
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.