Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)
Consumer Staples · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages · US stock · S&P 500 component
$35.19
▲ +0.72 (2.09%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$42 +18.9% to fair value
$21fair band $36–$51$63
Day's range
$34.65 – $35.40
52-week range
$24.88 – $35.40
About Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company with coffee and soft drink businesses. It makes Keurig single-serve brewers and pods, and its soft drink brands include Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Snapple and Mott's. Supermarkets, convenience stores, restaurants, offices and online retailers carry its drinks, which it produces and distributes through its own network and through bottling partners.
KDP earns revenue from coffee pods and brewers, packaged and bottled drinks, and syrup and concentrate supplied to other bottlers. Over the last twelve months it was $20.1 billion, growing at 5.7% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 16.2%, and the business earns a profit of 5% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 7.5 times EBITDA. A dividend is paid, with a yield of 2.6%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 50 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $24.88 – $35.40Volume 28,532,352Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$48.0B
52-week range$24.88 – $35.40
Volume (last day)28,532,352
P/E (TTM)33.6
EBIT / EV yield4.3%
Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
Dividend yield2.6%
Revenue (TTM)$20.1B
Net income (TTM)$1.4B
Operating margin16.2%
Return on capital5.0%
Debt incl. leases$26.0B
Cash & securities$1.5B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$42middle half of models $36 – $50
Undervalued
+18.9% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $35
Undervalued < $36Fair $36 – $51Overvalued > $51
P/E multiple
$34
P/B multiple
$40
P/S multiple
$47
EV/EBITDA multiple
$30
EV/EBIT multiple
$30
EV/revenue multiple
$37
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$55
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$50
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$55
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$52
10-year DCF, growth exit
$41
5-year DCF, growth exit
$36
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$114
Earnings power value
$37
Growth the price implies
16.4%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Staples peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
56/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.3%
Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Fair
70/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)5.7%
EPS growth (3y)14.8%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
32/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital5.0%
Operating margin16.2%
Gross profitability11.3%
Financial health
Weak
42/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA7.5×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
55/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield2.6%
Dividends vs free cash flow64%
Dividend growth5.0%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+4.8%
Mar '25
+6.1%
Jun '25
+10.7%
Sep '25
+10.5%
Dec '25
+9.4%
Mar '26
+75.6%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $7.3B, diluted EPS $0.04.
Compare with peers
MNST Monster Beverage Corp77 PEP Pepsico Inc60 KO Coca Cola Co43Other Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Earnings per share have compounded at 14.8% a year over three years.
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only 5.0% (median 18.0% for industry peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Operating margin of 16.2% is thin against 29.2% for industry peers.
- Net debt is 7.5x EBITDA, above the 3x level that lenders usually watch.
- Altman Z-score of 0.2 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- The price is 19% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Heavy debt makes profits sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Trades at 33.6x earnings, 53% above the 22.0x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare KDP with peers and sector
Medians of 3 Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages peers and of 28 Consumer Staples stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): KO 43, PEP 60, MNST 77.
| Metric | KDP | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 50 | 60 | 51 |
| Valuation | 56 | 75 | 53 |
| Growth | 70 | 49 | 48 |
| Profitability | 32 | 61 | 53 |
| Financial health | 42 | 64 | 54 |
| Dividends | 55 | – | 50 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Staples
KDP ranks #16 of 29 in Consumer Staples and #3 of 4 in Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for KDP
Each factor is rated by where KDP stands among the 29 Consumer Staples stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 7 Good · 6 Average · 10 Bad of 23
Growth: 3 · 0 · 0
Profitability: 1 · 2 · 2
Financial strength: 2 · 0 · 2
Valuation: 1 · 2 · 2
Cash flow: 0 · 2 · 2
Efficiency: 0 · 0 · 2
| Factor | KDP | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +5.7% | Good beats 84% | +2.3% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +8.2% | Good beats 80% | +2.2% | +8.2% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +14.8% | Good beats 86% | +2.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 49.4% | Average beats 65% | 38.7% | 54.5% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 16.2% | Good beats 69% | 11.0% | 21.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 7.1% | Average beats 52% | 6.9% | 12.5% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 5.0% | Bad beats 20% | 15.2% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 5.7% | Bad beats 25% | 18.6% | 8.1% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 7.5x | Bad beats 6% | 2.0x | 3.9x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 83% | 11.8x | 5.8x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 0.48 | Bad beats 2% | 1.04 | 0.47 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 79% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 33.6x | Bad beats 31% | 25.0x | 24.5x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 1.9x | Good beats 75% | 4.5x | 1.8x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 2.4x | Average beats 38% | 1.8x | 3.2x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 23.5x | Bad beats 21% | 15.2x | 22.0x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.1% | Average beats 37% | 4.8% | 3.9% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 9.8% | Average beats 52% | 9.3% | 10.8% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.77 | Average beats 65% | 1.54 | 1.34 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −15.4% | Bad beats 6% | +11.0% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −1.3% | Bad beats 17% | −4.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 2.6x | Bad beats 15% | 5.3x | 5.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Days sales outstanding | 44 days | Bad beats 21% | 35 days | 36 days | ▼ Worse |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 7 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 7 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginGood
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 44/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B | $14.1B | $14.8B | $15.4B | $16.6B |
| Operating income | $2.9B | $2.6B | $3.2B | $2.6B | $3.6B |
| Net income | $2.1B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $1.4B | $2.1B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.9B | $2.8B | $1.3B | $2.2B | $2.0B |
| Operating margin | 22.8% | 18.5% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 21.5% |
| Free cash flow | $2.5B | $2.5B | $904M | $1.7B | $1.5B |
| Diluted EPS | $1.50 | $1.01 | $1.55 | $1.05 | $1.53 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 33.78 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 33.84 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 32.36 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 32.95 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 31.82 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 31.96 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 31.29 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 31.12 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 29.40 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 30.20 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 71.47 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.96 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 13.04 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 95.96 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -4.04 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 126.7 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 34.01 | S2 34.33 | S1 34.76 | Pivot 35.08 | R1 35.51 | R2 35.83 | R3 36.26 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
0.92 USD
Yield on today's price
2.61%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2300 | |
| 0.2150 | |
| 0.2150 | |
| 0.2150 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold KDP
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| RSPS Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer... | 2.96% |
| XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | 2.89% |
| TCAF T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equ... | 2.60% |
| IYK iShares US Consumer Staples | 1.83% |
| FSTA Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index | 1.44% |
| VDC Vanguard Consumer Staples | 1.40% |
| QQQE Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Ind... | 1.06% |
| VOE Vanguard Mid-Cap Value | 0.73% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in KDP among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
KDP SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.