Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail · US stock · S&P 500 component
$131.04
▲ +5.56 (4.43%)
Fair valueFair
$141 +7.6% to fair value
$71fair band $120–$171$212
Day's range
$123.83 – $131.15
52-week range
$85.88 – $142.40
About Dollar Tree, Inc.
Dollar Tree operates a large chain of discount variety stores across the United States and Canada, selling consumables, seasonal goods, household items and party supplies at low fixed price points. It earns money from the margin between what it pays suppliers and the prices charged at the register. The company also owns the Family Dollar banner, which serves lower-income neighborhoods with a broader range of food and everyday necessities.
Over the last twelve months Dollar Tree, Inc. reported revenue of $20.1 billion, which grew 8.0% a year over the past three years. Its operating margin is 11.0% and its return on invested capital is 31%. Net debt to EBITDA is 0.9 times. The company does not pay a dividend. The X-Ray Score is 71 out of 100, a summary of these measures.
Price chart
52-wk range $85.88 – $142.40Volume 1,843,045Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$25.0B
52-week range$85.88 – $142.40
Volume (last day)1,843,045
P/E (TTM)16.2
EBIT / EV yield8.2%
Free-cash-flow yield–
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$20.1B
Net income (TTM)$1.6B
Operating margin11.0%
Return on capital31.3%
Debt incl. leases$2.9B
Cash & securities$1.1B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$141middle half of models $127 – $146
Fair
+7.6% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $131
Undervalued < $120Fair $120 – $171Overvalued > $171
P/E multiple
$137
P/B multiple
$98
P/S multiple
$122
EV/EBITDA multiple
$144
EV/EBIT multiple
$174
EV/revenue multiple
$127
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$135
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$143
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$127
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$135
10-year DCF, growth exit
$146
5-year DCF, growth exit
$156
Earnings power value
$191
Growth the price implies
3.0%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Strong business at a fair price
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Staples peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
75/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield8.2%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Fair
66/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)8.0%
EPS growth (3y)-4.8%
Growth consistency70%
Profitability
Fair
67/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital31.3%
Operating margin11.0%
Gross profitability55.3%
Financial health
Strong
75/100
Balance sheet looks strong: debt is well covered.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score9 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+11.3%
May '25
+12.3%
Aug '25
+9.4%
Nov '25
+9.1%
Jan '26
+7.2%
May '26
+7.0%
Aug '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.9B, diluted EPS $2.70.
Compare with peers
DG Dollar General Corp66 COST Costco Wholesale Corp56 TGT Target Corp55 WMT Walmart Inc.51Other Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Dollar Tree, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 31.3%, against a median of 17.4% for industry peers.
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
- Passes 9 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- No clear weakness in the figures we track.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Trades at 15.5x earnings, 50% below the 30.9x median of industry peers.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- No specific threat is flagged by our checks; general market and interest-rate risk still applies.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare DLTR with peers and sector
Medians of 4 Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail peers and of 28 Consumer Staples stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): WMT 51, COST 56, TGT 55, DG 66.
| Metric | DLTR | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 71 | 56 | 50 |
| Valuation | 75 | 43 | 53 |
| Growth | 66 | 73 | 48 |
| Profitability | 67 | 66 | 51 |
| Financial health | 75 | 62 | 46 |
| Dividends | – | 52 | 50 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Staples
DLTR ranks #2 of 29 in Consumer Staples and #1 of 5 in Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for DLTR
Each factor is rated by where DLTR stands among the 29 Consumer Staples stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 9 Good · 6 Average · 1 Bad of 16
Growth: 2 · 0 · 1
Profitability: 2 · 3 · 0
Financial strength: 3 · 1 · 0
Valuation: 2 · 2 · 0
| Factor | DLTR | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +8.0% | Good beats 95% | +2.3% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +10.4% | Good beats 91% | +2.2% | +4.8% | ▲ Better |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −4.8% | Bad beats 30% | +2.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 38.7% | Average beats 50% | 38.7% | 35.8% | ≈ In line |
| Operating margin | 11.0% | Average beats 50% | 11.0% | 8.5% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 8.0% | Average beats 55% | 6.9% | 5.0% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 31.3% | Good beats 80% | 15.2% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 47.1% | Good beats 83% | 18.6% | 17.2% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.9x | Good beats 82% | 2.0x | 1.1x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 83% | 11.8x | – | – |
| Current ratio | 1.13 | Average beats 59% | 1.04 | 1.31 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | Good beats 96% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 15.5x | Good beats 94% | 25.0x | 20.9x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 7.3x | Average beats 37% | 4.5x | 4.0x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / sales | 1.2x | Average beats 66% | 1.8x | 1.2x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.2x | Good beats 79% | 15.2x | 12.6x | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 7 Good · ● 5 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyAverage
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginAverage
Gross profitabilityGood
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 70/100.
Financials
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.3B | $15.4B | $16.8B | $17.6B | $19.4B |
| Operating income | $1.8B | $2.1B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.7B |
| Net income | $1.3B | $1.6B | −$998M | −$3.0B | $1.3B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.4B | $1.6B | $2.7B | – | – |
| Operating margin | 6.9% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% |
| Free cash flow | $410M | $976M | $1.5B | – | – |
| Diluted EPS | $5.80 | $7.21 | $-4.54 | $-14.03 | $6.22 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 122.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 123.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 118.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 121.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 122.0 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 120.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 121.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 119.5 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 116.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 116.1 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 70.38 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 2.06 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 12.78 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 99.45 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -0.55 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 161.3 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 118.9 | S2 121.4 | S1 126.2 | Pivot 128.7 | R1 133.5 | R2 136.0 | R3 140.8 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold DLTR
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| RSPS Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer... | 3.48% |
| XRT SPDR S&P Retail | 1.48% |
| XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | 1.42% |
| FSTA Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index | 1.00% |
| VDC Vanguard Consumer Staples | 0.87% |
| COWZ Pacer US Cash Cows 100 | 0.54% |
| AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value | 0.43% |
| VOE Vanguard Mid-Cap Value | 0.38% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in DLTR among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
DLTR stock splits
DLTR has split its stock 6 times since 1996. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 27 Jun 2012.
Full DLTR stock split history →DLTR SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Current report
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.