Carvana Co. (CVNA)
Consumer Discretionary · Automotive Retail · US stock · S&P 500 component
$58.72
▼ -0.47 (0.79%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$70 +20.0% to fair value
$35fair band $60–$85$106
Day's range
$58.44 – $59.96
52-week range
$54.46 – $97.38
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Carvana Co.
Carvana is an online used car retailer. Customers browse an inventory of vehicles on its website or app, arrange financing, trade in a current car and have the purchase delivered to their home or collected from one of its automated vending-machine style towers. The company also operates inspection and reconditioning centres where cars are prepared for sale, supported by its own logistics network.
Revenue comes from retail vehicle sales, wholesale vehicle sales, and financing and related services. It was $25.1 billion over the last twelve months, with growth of 14.3% a year across the last three years. The operating margin is 8.9%, and the business earns a profit of 24% on the capital invested in it. Net debt is 1.5 times EBITDA, and no dividend is paid. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 50 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $54.46 – $97.38Volume 7,989,135Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$43.5B
52-week range$54.46 – $97.38
Volume (last day)7,989,135
P/E (TTM)17.8
EBIT / EV yield4.7%
Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$25.1B
Net income (TTM)$1.6B
Operating margin8.9%
Return on capital24.2%
Debt incl. leases$5.9B
Cash & securities$2.6B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$70middle half of models $55 – $85
Undervalued
+20.0% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $59
Undervalued < $60Fair $60 – $85Overvalued > $85
P/E multiple
$71
P/B multiple
$106
P/S multiple
$53
EV/EBITDA multiple
$65
EV/EBIT multiple
$86
EV/revenue multiple
$61
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$85
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$88
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$84
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$82
10-year DCF, growth exit
$55
5-year DCF, growth exit
$53
Earnings power value
$26
Growth the price implies
15.6%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
46/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield4.7%
Free-cash-flow yield2.1%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Strong
86/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)14.3%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
26/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital24.2%
Operating margin8.9%
Gross profitability33.4%
Financial health
Weak
47/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score5 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Interest cover5.3×
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+38.3%
Mar '25
+41.9%
Jun '25
+54.5%
Sep '25
+58.0%
Dec '25
+52.0%
Mar '26
+52.4%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $7.4B.
Compare with peers
AZO Autozone Inc49 ORLY O Reilly Automotive In...46Other Automotive Retail companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Carvana Co.
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 24.2%, against a median of 24.9% for sector peers.
- Revenue has grown 14.3% a year over three years (median 6.4% for sector peers).
Weaknessesinside the company
- Operating margin of 8.9% is thin against 15.0% for sector peers.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 48.6% last year from 14.3% a year over three years.
- The price is 20% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 27.7x earnings, 34% above the 20.7x median of sector peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- The price trend is down on the daily and weekly signals.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare CVNA with peers and sector
Medians of 46 Consumer Discretionary peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): AMZN 42, TSLA 28, HD 40, MCD 53, TJX 55, BKNG 70.
| Metric | CVNA | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Valuation | 46 | 49 | 49 |
| Growth | 86 | 50 | 50 |
| Profitability | 26 | 52 | 52 |
| Financial health | 47 | 50 | 50 |
| Dividends | – | 52 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
CVNA ranks #24 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for CVNA
Each factor is rated by where CVNA stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 5 Good · 5 Average · 11 Bad of 21
Growth: 2 · 0 · 0
Profitability: 0 · 2 · 3
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 2
Valuation: 0 · 2 · 3
Cash flow: 0 · 0 · 3
Efficiency: 2 · 0 · 0
| Factor | CVNA | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +14.3% | Good beats 81% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +48.6% | Good beats 99% | +4.9% | +26.9% | ▲ Better |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin | 19.4% | Bad beats 8% | 42.5% | 16.0% | ▲ Better |
| Operating margin | 8.9% | Bad beats 28% | 14.9% | 3.2% | ▲ Better |
| Net margin | 6.3% | Bad beats 25% | 11.4% | 1.5% | ▲ Better |
| Return on invested capital | 24.2% | Average beats 49% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 38.9% | Average beats 54% | 35.3% | 28.8% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.5x | Average beats 54% | 1.8x | – | – |
| Interest cover | 5.3x | Bad beats 22% | 25.3x | 0.7x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 3.93 | Good beats 97% | 1.10 | 2.16 | ▲ Better |
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | Bad beats 24% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 27.7x | Bad beats 28% | 21.1x | – | – |
| Price / book | 10.8x | Average beats 38% | 7.2x | – | – |
| Price / sales | 1.7x | Average beats 65% | 2.1x | – | – |
| EV / EBITDA | 21.4x | Bad beats 19% | 15.0x | – | – |
| Free cash flow yield | 2.1% | Bad beats 13% | 4.3% | – | – |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 3.7% | Bad beats 16% | 10.8% | 4.4% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 0.71 | Bad beats 3% | 1.37 | 1.78 | ▼ Worse |
| Accruals (lower is better) | +3.1% | Bad beats 3% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Inventory turnover | 6.2x | Good beats 72% | 4.2x | 6.7x | ≈ In line |
| Days sales outstanding | 5 days | Good beats 82% | 14 days | 7 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 5 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 6 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashBad
Free-cash-flow yieldBad
Risk models
Altman Z''Good
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioGood
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginBad
Gross profitabilityBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 48/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B | $13.6B | $10.8B | $13.7B | $20.3B |
| Operating income | – | −$2.4B | −$80M | $990M | $1.9B |
| Net income | −$135M | −$1.6B | $450M | $210M | $1.4B |
| Operating cash flow | −$2.6B | −$1.3B | $803M | $918M | $1.0B |
| Operating margin | – | -17.3% | -0.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% |
| Free cash flow | −$3.2B | −$1.8B | $716M | $827M | $889M |
| Diluted EPS | $-1.63 | $-15.74 | $0.75 | $1.59 | $8.45 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 4 neutral · 12 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bearish
1 bullish · 1 neutral · 10 bearish
Monthly
Bearish
2 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 59.79 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 59.99 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 61.50 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 61.60 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 66.93 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 64.70 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 66.85 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 66.76 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 70.08 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 67.91 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 39.40 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -2.16 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -8.08 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 27.15 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -72.85 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | -94.12 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 56.60 | S2 57.52 | S1 58.12 | Pivot 59.04 | R1 59.64 | R2 60.56 | R3 61.16 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold CVNA
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index | 1.94% |
| XRT SPDR S&P Retail | 1.32% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 1.17% |
| SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta | 1.08% |
| VOT Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth | 0.99% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 0.66% |
| VCR Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 0.64% |
| VO Vanguard Mid-Cap | 0.43% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in CVNA among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
CVNA stock splits
CVNA has split its stock once since 2026. The latest was a 5-for-1 split on 8 May 2026.
Full CVNA stock split history →CVNA SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Entered a material agreement
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
DEF 14ASEC EDGAR
Proxy statement
10-KSEC EDGAR
Annual report
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.