Capital One Financial Corp (COF)
Financials · Consumer Finance · US stock · S&P 500 component
$203.43
▼ -3.23 (1.56%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$280 +37.7% to fair value
$140fair band $238–$339$420
Day's range
$202.34 – $208.45
52-week range
$174.24 – $259.64
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Capital One Financial Corp
Capital One Financial is a bank holding company best known for credit cards, and it also offers auto loans, consumer banking and commercial lending. It earns money mostly from interest on loans, especially card balances, plus fees and interchange income from card spending. The company funds its lending largely through customer deposits, and credit quality and charge-offs are key factors that influence its results.
The company pays a dividend with a yield of 1.6%. Looking at the numbers, trailing revenue is $62.0 billion, and it grew 16.0% a year over the past three years. Operating margin is 21.0%, while return on invested capital is 10%. Taken together, these figures give an X-Ray Score of 63 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $174.24 – $259.64Volume 5,396,591Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$126.4B
52-week range$174.24 – $259.64
Volume (last day)5,396,591
P/E (TTM)11.7
EBIT / EV yield11.2%
Free-cash-flow yield23.5%
Dividend yield1.6%
Revenue (TTM)$62.0B
Net income (TTM)$10.5B
Operating margin21.0%
Return on capital9.8%
Debt incl. leases$45.4B
Cash & securities$55.9B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$280middle half of models $213 – $335
Undervalued
+37.7% to fair value
Average of the 4 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $203
Undervalued < $238Fair $238 – $339Overvalued > $339
P/E multiple
$199
P/B multiple
$218
P/S multiple
$317
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$386
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
88/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield11.2%
Free-cash-flow yield23.5%
Fair value vs price1.4×
Growth
Fair
66/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)16.0%
EPS growth (3y)-39.2%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
39/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital9.8%
Operating margin21.0%
Financial health
Fair
61/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA-0.5×
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
64/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield1.6%
Dividends vs free cash flow7%
Dividend growth16.9%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+6.4%
Mar '25
+31.4%
Jun '25
+53.4%
Sep '25
+52.9%
Dec '25
+52.3%
Mar '26
+26.9%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $15.9B, diluted EPS $4.73.
Compare with peers
SYF Synchrony Financial61 AXP American Express Co55Other Consumer Finance companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Capital One Financial Corp
Strengthsinside the company
- Revenue has grown 16.0% a year over three years (median 8.1% for sector peers).
- Free cash flow equals 23.5% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
- Cash exceeds debt (net debt is negative), which gives room to invest or ride out a downturn.
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Earnings per share have declined 39.2% a year over three years.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth picked up to 36.6% last year from 16.0% a year over three years.
- Dividends use only 7% of free cash flow, which leaves room to raise them.
- The price is 38% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Financials as favourable.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare COF with peers and sector
Medians of 70 Financials peers and of 70 Financials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): JPM 49, MA 57, BAC 48, MS 34, GS 49, WFC 38.
| Metric | COF | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 63 | 50 | 50 |
| Valuation | 88 | 52 | 52 |
| Growth | 66 | 54 | 54 |
| Profitability | 39 | 49 | 49 |
| Financial health | 61 | 50 | 50 |
| Dividends | 64 | 54 | 54 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Financials
COF ranks #7 of 71 in Financials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for COF
Each factor is rated by where COF stands among the 71 Financials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 3 Good · 3 Average · 2 Bad of 8
Growth: 2 · 0 · 1
Profitability: 0 · 1 · 1
Valuation: 1 · 2 · 0
| Factor | COF | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +16.0% | Good beats 84% | +8.3% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +36.6% | Good beats 96% | +6.9% | +7.4% | ▲ Better |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −39.2% | Bad beats 1% | +12.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Net margin | 17.0% | Average beats 38% | 21.8% | 13.3% | ▲ Better |
| Return on equity | 9.2% | Bad beats 22% | 15.7% | 8.4% | ≈ In line |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 12.0x | Average beats 64% | 13.8x | 10.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 1.1x | Good beats 85% | 2.2x | 1.1x | ≈ In line |
| Price / sales | 2.0x | Average beats 65% | 3.1x | 1.7x | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings), and banks and insurers are rated only on the factors that apply to them. A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 9 Good · ● 1 Average · ● 3 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Net debt / EBITDAGood
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 63/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $30.4B | $34.3B | $36.8B | $39.1B | $53.4B |
| Operating income | $17.4B | $13.4B | $18.7B | $5.9B | $2.3B |
| Net income | $12.4B | $7.4B | $4.9B | $4.8B | $2.5B |
| Operating cash flow | $12.3B | $13.8B | $20.6B | $18.2B | $27.7B |
| Operating margin | 57.2% | 39.0% | 50.9% | 15.1% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | $11.6B | $12.9B | $19.6B | $17.0B | $26.1B |
| Diluted EPS | $26.94 | $17.91 | $11.95 | $11.59 | $4.03 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
9 bullish · 3 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Neutral
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 6 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 200.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 201.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 198.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 200.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 206.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 203.1 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 204.1 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 203.4 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 201.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 202.9 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 53.22 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -0.45 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | 3.89 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 57.71 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -42.29 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | 149.1 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 194.9 | S2 198.6 | S1 201.0 | Pivot 204.7 | R1 207.1 | R2 210.8 | R3 213.2 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
3.20 USD
Yield on today's price
1.57%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.8000 | |
| 0.8000 | |
| 0.8000 | |
| 0.8000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold COF
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| OMAH VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select... | 4.49% |
| EAGL The 2023 ETF Series | 3.61% |
| KBWB Invesco KBW Bank | 3.60% |
| XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR | 1.64% |
| IYJ iShares U.S. Industrials | 1.56% |
| PWV Invesco Dynamic Large Cap Value | 1.48% |
| VFH Vanguard Financials | 1.44% |
| JAVA JPMorgan Active Value | 1.37% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in COF among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
COF stock splits
COF has split its stock once since 1999. The latest was a 3-for-1 split on 2 Jun 1999.
Full COF stock split history →COF SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
8-KSEC EDGAR
Current report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.