Progressive Corp (PGR)
Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance · US stock · S&P 500 component
$229.62
▲ +8.27 (3.74%)
Fair valueFair
$247 +7.4% to fair value
$123fair band $210–$299$370
Day's range
$222.46 – $229.81
52-week range
$189.20 – $239.38
About Progressive Corp
Progressive is an insurance group best known for personal auto insurance, and it also sells home, motorcycle, boat and commercial vehicle coverage. It reaches customers directly online and by phone, and through independent agents. Revenue comes from premiums and from investment income, and results depend on how accurately it prices risk and on claims costs and weather events.
The company reported revenue of $91.1 billion for the last twelve months at Progressive Corp. Revenue growth over the past three years averaged 20.9% a year. It kept an operating margin of 16.6%. The return on invested capital reached 37%, a measure of profit earned on the money invested in the business. The company pays a dividend, and the yield is 6.1%. On the site's X-Ray Score, it rates 69 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $189.20 – $239.38Volume 2,345,366Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$134.1B
52-week range$189.20 – $239.38
Volume (last day)2,345,366
P/E (TTM)11.5
EBIT / EV yield11.4%
Free-cash-flow yield11.9%
Dividend yield6.1%
Revenue (TTM)$91.1B
Net income (TTM)$11.7B
Operating margin16.6%
Return on capital37.1%
Debt incl. leasesData missing
Cash & securities$2.2B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$247middle half of models $244 – $249
Fair
+7.4% to fair value
Average of the 3 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $230
Undervalued < $210Fair $210 – $299Overvalued > $299
P/E multiple
$251
P/B multiple
$247
P/S multiple
$241
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$1,786
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
68/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield11.4%
Free-cash-flow yield11.9%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Strong
87/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)20.9%
EPS growth (3y)153.5%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Fair
65/100
Returns on capital are typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital37.1%
Operating margin16.6%
Financial health
Fair
62/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
Fair
61/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield6.1%
Dividends vs free cash flow51%
Dividend growth130.6%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+18.4%
Mar '25
+21.3%
Jun '25
+14.2%
Sep '25
+12.2%
Dec '25
+8.7%
Mar '26
+7.3%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $23.6B, diluted EPS $5.67.
Compare with peers
HIG Hartford Insurance Gro...64 ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd...61 CINF Cincinnati Financial C...60 WRB Berkley W R Corp57Other Property & Casualty Insurance companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Progressive Corp
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 37.1%, against a median of 21.5% for industry peers.
- Revenue has grown 20.9% a year over three years (median 9.8% for industry peers).
- Earnings per share have compounded at 153.5% a year over three years.
- Free cash flow equals 11.9% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
Weaknessesinside the company
- No clear weakness in the figures we track.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Financials as favourable.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- No specific threat is flagged by our checks; general market and interest-rate risk still applies.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare PGR with peers and sector
Medians of 7 Property & Casualty Insurance peers and of 70 Financials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): CB 50, TRV 52, ALL 54, HIG 64, ACGL 61, WRB 57.
| Metric | PGR | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 69 | 57 | 50 |
| Valuation | 68 | 62 | 52 |
| Growth | 87 | 62 | 54 |
| Profitability | 65 | 59 | 48 |
| Financial health | 62 | 55 | 50 |
| Dividends | 61 | 61 | 54 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Financials
PGR ranks #1 of 71 in Financials and #1 of 8 in Property & Casualty Insurance by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for PGR
Each factor is rated by where PGR stands among the 71 Financials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 6 Good · 0 Average · 2 Bad of 8
Growth: 3 · 0 · 0
Profitability: 1 · 0 · 1
Valuation: 2 · 0 · 1
| Factor | PGR | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +20.9% | Good beats 92% | +8.3% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +16.3% | Good beats 84% | +6.9% | +16.3% | ≈ In line |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +153.5% | Good beats 99% | +12.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Net margin | 12.8% | Bad beats 24% | 21.8% | 7.0% | ▲ Better |
| Return on equity | 34.1% | Good beats 89% | 15.7% | 19.2% | ▲ Better |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 11.5x | Good beats 68% | 13.8x | 18.0x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 3.9x | Bad beats 25% | 2.2x | 4.6x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 1.5x | Good beats 87% | 3.1x | 1.5x | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings), and banks and insurers are rated only on the factors that apply to them. A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 9 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceAverage
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 75/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B |
| Operating income | $4.4B | $1.2B | $5.2B | $11.0B | $14.5B |
| Net income | $3.4B | $722M | $3.9B | $8.5B | $11.3B |
| Operating cash flow | $7.8B | $6.8B | $10.6B | $15.1B | $17.5B |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 16.5% |
| Free cash flow | $7.5B | $6.6B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B |
| Diluted EPS | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Strongly bullish
12 bullish · 1 neutral · 3 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
7 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 219.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 220.3 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 215.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 217.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 215.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 215.5 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 214.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 213.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 208.6 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 213.1 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 66.35 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 2.61 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 8.29 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 99.34 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -0.66 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 163.2 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 217.4 | S2 219.9 | S1 224.8 | Pivot 227.3 | R1 232.1 | R2 234.6 | R3 239.5 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
13.90 USD
Yield on today's price
6.05%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 13.6000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 4.6000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.1000 | |
| 0.8500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold PGR
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| GQGU The Advisors’ Inner Circle Fund III | 4.08% |
| MFSV MFS Active Value | 2.86% |
| KIE SPDR S&P Insurance | 1.92% |
| IYF iShares U.S. Financials | 1.88% |
| XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR | 1.68% |
| VFH Vanguard Financials | 1.34% |
| SPHQ Invesco S&P 500 Quality | 1.33% |
| AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value | 1.04% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in PGR among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
PGR stock splits
PGR has split its stock 3 times since 1992. The latest was a 4-for-1 split on 19 May 2006.
Full PGR stock split history →PGR SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.