Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants · US stock · S&P 500 component
$28.14
▲ +0.02 (0.07%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$34 +21.8% to fair value
$17fair band $29–$42$51
Day's range
$27.82 – $28.47
52-week range
$27.82 – $42.38
About Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Chipotle Mexican Grill operates a chain of fast casual restaurants that serve burritos, bowls, tacos and salads made from ingredients prepared in each kitchen. Customers order in the restaurant, through a digital app or through delivery partners. The company earns money by selling meals at its own company-operated locations, while a small portion of income comes from other items such as delivery fees. Growth depends on opening new restaurants and on traffic at existing ones.
Revenue for the last twelve months was $12.4 billion, and it grew by 11.4% a year over three years. The operating margin is 14.7%, and return on invested capital reached 91%. It does not pay a dividend. Its X-Ray Score is 64 out of 100. These figures describe past results and say nothing certain about the future.
Price chart
52-wk range $27.82 – $42.38Volume 26,826,828Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$36.0B
52-week range$27.82 – $42.38
Volume (last day)26,826,828
P/E (TTM)26.1
EBIT / EV yield5.2%
Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$12.4B
Net income (TTM)$1.4B
Operating margin14.7%
Return on capital90.8%
Debt incl. leasesData missing
Cash & securities$678M
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$34middle half of models $33 – $37
Undervalued
+21.8% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $28
Undervalued < $29Fair $29 – $42Overvalued > $42
P/E multiple
$33
P/B multiple
$33
P/S multiple
$43
EV/EBITDA multiple
$35
EV/EBIT multiple
$43
EV/revenue multiple
$40
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$35
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$37
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$36
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$37
10-year DCF, growth exit
$23
5-year DCF, growth exit
$23
Earnings power value
$27
Growth the price implies
12.1%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Average business at a low price
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Consumer Discretionary peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Fair
60/100
Priced about in line with its sector.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield5.2%
Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
Fair value vs price1.2×
Growth
Strong
70/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)11.4%
EPS growth (3y)21.2%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Strong
74/100
Earns high returns on the capital it uses.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital90.8%
Operating margin14.7%
Financial health
Fair
50/100
Balance sheet is in typical shape for its sector.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score6 / 9
Interest coverNo interest cost
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+6.4%
Mar '25
+3.0%
Jun '25
+7.5%
Sep '25
+4.9%
Dec '25
+7.4%
Mar '26
+9.3%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $3.3B, diluted EPS $0.32.
Compare with peers
DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc64 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc54 MCD Mcdonalds Corp53 YUM Yum Brands Inc48Other Restaurants companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Strengthsinside the company
- Return on invested capital is 90.8%, against a median of 30.6% for industry peers.
- Revenue has grown 11.4% a year over three years (median 5.1% for industry peers).
- Earnings per share have compounded at 21.2% a year over three years.
- Operating profit covers interest 50x, so debt costs are a small drag.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Altman Z-score of 1.4 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- The price is 22% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth slowed to 5.4% last year from 11.4% a year over three years.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare CMG with peers and sector
Medians of 5 Restaurants peers and of 46 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): MCD 53, SBUX 31, YUM 48, DRI 54, DPZ 64.
| Metric | CMG | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 64 | 53 | 50 |
| Valuation | 60 | 50 | 48 |
| Growth | 70 | 55 | 50 |
| Profitability | 74 | 63 | 52 |
| Financial health | 50 | 36 | 49 |
| Dividends | – | 54 | 52 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Consumer Discretionary
CMG ranks #5 of 47 in Consumer Discretionary and #1 of 6 in Restaurants by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for CMG
Each factor is rated by where CMG stands among the 47 Consumer Discretionary stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 8 Good · 10 Average · 2 Bad of 20
Growth: 2 · 1 · 0
Profitability: 2 · 2 · 0
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 1
Valuation: 0 · 4 · 1
Cash flow: 2 · 2 · 0
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | CMG | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +11.4% | Good beats 74% | +6.5% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +5.4% | Average beats 53% | +4.9% | +14.4% | ▼ Worse |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +21.2% | Good beats 82% | +4.0% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 14.7% | Average beats 48% | 14.9% | 15.8% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 11.4% | Average beats 51% | 11.4% | 12.4% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 90.8% | Good beats 92% | 24.6% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 64.5% | Good beats 82% | 35.3% | 40.1% | ▲ Better |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Interest cover | 50.0x | Good beats 76% | 25.3x | – | – |
| Current ratio | 0.72 | Bad beats 20% | 1.10 | 1.52 | ▼ Worse |
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | Average beats 49% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 25.4x | Average beats 34% | 21.1x | 47.4x | ▲ Better |
| Price / book | 16.4x | Bad beats 15% | 7.2x | 19.1x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 2.9x | Average beats 37% | 2.1x | 5.5x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.1x | Average beats 41% | 15.0x | 29.7x | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow yield | 4.4% | Average beats 51% | 4.3% | 2.0% | ▲ Better |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 12.6% | Average beats 66% | 10.8% | 12.1% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.64 | Good beats 67% | 1.37 | 1.45 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +19.7% | Average beats 64% | +12.1% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −10.2% | Good beats 94% | −5.3% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 3 days | Good beats 99% | 14 days | 5 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 7 Good · ● 6 Average · ● 1 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Average
Piotroski F-ScoreAverage
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Average
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Interest coverGood
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldAverage
Profitability
Return on invested capitalGood
Operating marginAverage
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 65/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5B | $8.6B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $11.9B |
| Operating income | $805M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $1.9B |
| Net income | $653M | $899M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Operating margin | 10.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| Free cash flow | $840M | $844M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| Diluted EPS | $22.90 | $0.64 | $0.89 | $1.11 | $1.14 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bearish
4 bullish · 0 neutral · 12 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 11 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bearish
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 7 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 29.91 | Bearish |
| EMA 10 | 29.72 | Bearish |
| SMA 20 | 30.80 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 30.78 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 33.62 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 32.43 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 33.32 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 33.27 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 34.37 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 34.87 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 27.06 | Bullish |
| MACD (12, 26) | -1.32 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -8.93 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 5.73 | Bullish |
| Williams %R (14) | -94.27 | Bullish |
| CCI (20) | -191.9 | Bullish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 27.17 | S2 27.49 | S1 27.82 | Pivot 28.14 | R1 28.47 | R2 28.79 | R3 29.12 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold CMG
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| MOAT VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat | 1.42% |
| IWP iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth | 1.19% |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector S... | 1.09% |
| JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income | 1.02% |
| QUAL iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor | 0.98% |
| VOT Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth | 0.96% |
| FDIS Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary I... | 0.78% |
| CGGR Capital Group Growth | 0.76% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in CMG among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
CMG SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.