Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
Financials · Insurance Brokers · US stock · S&P 500 component
$270.98
▲ +12.61 (4.88%)
Fair valueFair
$309 +14.0% to fair value
$154fair band $263–$374$463
Day's range
$257.52 – $271.00
52-week range
$190.75 – $284.33
Red flags⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution⚠ Heavy dilution
About Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Arthur J. Gallagher is an insurance broker and risk management firm based in Illinois. Its brokerage arm places property, casualty, employee benefits and reinsurance cover for businesses, public bodies, non-profits and individuals with insurance carriers, and its risk management arm provides claims handling and related consulting. Clients are organisations of many sizes across numerous countries.
The firm earns commissions from insurance carriers and fees from clients, along with some investment income. Revenue is $15.8 billion over the last twelve months, growing at 17.7% a year across three years. The operating margin is 16.7%, and the business earns a profit of 6% on the capital invested in it. It carries net debt of 3.0 times EBITDA, and the dividend yield is 1.0%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 46 out of 100.
Price chart
52-wk range $190.75 – $284.33Volume 2,138,952Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$69.6B
52-week range$190.75 – $284.33
Volume (last day)2,138,952
P/E (TTM)44.3
EBIT / EV yield3.2%
Free-cash-flow yield–
Dividend yield1.0%
Revenue (TTM)$15.8B
Net income (TTM)$1.6B
Operating margin16.7%
Return on capital5.8%
Debt incl. leases$13.5B
Cash & securities$1.4B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$309middle half of models $260 – $389
Fair
+14.0% to fair value
Average of the 14 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is High, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $271
Undervalued < $263Fair $263 – $374Overvalued > $374
P/E multiple
$269
P/B multiple
$338
P/S multiple
$269
EV/EBITDA multiple
$264
EV/EBIT multiple
$249
EV/revenue multiple
$267
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$444
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$405
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$443
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$403
10-year DCF, growth exit
$259
5-year DCF, growth exit
$206
Dividend discount, multi-stage
$347
Earnings power value
$160
Growth the price implies
20.8%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Financials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Weak
46/100
Expensive against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield3.2%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Fair
69/100
Growing at a typical pace for its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)17.7%
EPS growth (3y)3.4%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
39/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital5.8%
Operating margin16.7%
Financial health
Weak
23/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score5 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Interest cover4.1×
Dividends
Fair
59/100
Dividend is typical for its sector.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield1.0%
Dividend growth15.8%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+14.4%
Mar '25
+16.1%
Jun '25
+19.9%
Sep '25
+33.6%
Dec '25
+27.7%
Mar '26
+24.2%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $4.0B, diluted EPS $1.25.
Compare with peers
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc.54 MRSH Marsh & Mclennan Compa...50 AON Aon plc48 WTW Willis Towers Watson P...37Other Insurance Brokers companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Strengthsinside the company
- Revenue has grown 17.7% a year over three years (median 10.2% for industry peers).
Weaknessesinside the company
- Return on invested capital is only 5.8% (median 13.5% for industry peers), so the business earns little above its cost of capital.
- Altman Z-score of 1.1 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Our Market Compass rates the backdrop for Financials as favourable.
- Price momentum is strong on the weekly and monthly signals (trends can reverse).
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Trades at 44.3x earnings, 118% above the 20.3x median of industry peers, so the price already assumes better results.
- Valuation uncertainty is high: the models give widely different values, so the fair value range is wide.
- Our checks raised: Heavy dilution; Heavy dilution.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare AJG with peers and sector
Medians of 4 Insurance Brokers peers and of 70 Financials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): MRSH 50, AON 48, WTW 37, BRO 54.
| Metric | AJG | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 46 | 49 | 50 |
| Valuation | 46 | 49 | 52 |
| Growth | 69 | 62 | 54 |
| Profitability | 39 | 48 | 49 |
| Financial health | 23 | 34 | 51 |
| Dividends | 59 | 57 | 54 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Financials
AJG ranks #48 of 71 in Financials and #4 of 5 in Insurance Brokers by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for AJG
Each factor is rated by where AJG stands among the 71 Financials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 3 Good · 4 Average · 12 Bad of 19
Growth: 2 · 0 · 1
Profitability: 0 · 0 · 4
Financial strength: 0 · 1 · 3
Valuation: 0 · 2 · 2
Cash flow: 1 · 1 · 1
Efficiency: 0 · 0 · 1
| Factor | AJG | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +17.7% | Good beats 87% | +8.3% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +20.7% | Good beats 89% | +6.9% | +17.2% | ▲ Better |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +3.4% | Bad beats 25% | +12.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 16.7% | Bad beats 22% | 29.1% | 18.0% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 10.0% | Bad beats 18% | 21.8% | 11.0% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 5.8% | Bad beats 12% | 13.5% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 6.6% | Bad beats 8% | 15.7% | 9.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 3.0x | Bad beats 25% | 1.1x | 3.1x | ≈ In line |
| Interest cover | 4.1x | Bad beats 7% | 50.0x | 5.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.05 | Average beats 50% | 1.05 | 1.06 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | Bad beats 23% | 7 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 44.3x | Bad beats 4% | 13.8x | 42.8x | ≈ In line |
| Price / book | 2.9x | Average beats 36% | 2.2x | 4.0x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 4.4x | Average beats 36% | 3.1x | 4.8x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 20.6x | Bad beats 15% | 10.8x | 21.4x | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 15.5% | Bad beats 27% | 23.2% | 17.0% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.56 | Good beats 72% | 1.25 | 1.54 | ≈ In line |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −1.1% | Average beats 54% | −1.0% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 141 days | Bad beats 8% | 53 days | 130 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 3 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 8 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashAverage
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDABad
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldBad
Profitability
Return on invested capitalBad
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 39/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $8.6B | $10.1B | $11.6B | $13.9B |
| Operating income | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $2.3B | $2.5B |
| Net income | $907M | $1.1B | $970M | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $1.9B |
| Operating margin | 14.6% | 18.5% | 14.7% | 19.5% | 18.0% |
| Free cash flow | – | – | – | – | – |
| Diluted EPS | $4.37 | $5.19 | $4.42 | $6.50 | $5.74 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
12 bullish · 0 neutral · 4 bearish
Weekly
Strongly bullish
11 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Monthly
Strongly bullish
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 248.3 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 251.7 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 238.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 245.5 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 246.5 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 243.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 241.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 100 | 240.8 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 230.8 | Bullish |
| EMA 200 | 242.0 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 73.18 | Bearish |
| MACD (12, 26) | 5.22 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 17.89 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 99.96 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -0.04 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 172.6 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 248.5 | S2 253.0 | S1 262.0 | Pivot 266.5 | R1 275.5 | R2 280.0 | R3 289.0 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
2.75 USD
Yield on today's price
1.01%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.7000 | |
| 0.6500 | |
| 0.6500 | |
| 0.6500 | |
| 0.6500 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.6000 | |
| 0.5500 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold AJG
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| EAGL The 2023 ETF Series | 3.20% |
| KIE SPDR S&P Insurance | 1.87% |
| TCAF T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equ... | 1.14% |
| VOE Vanguard Mid-Cap Value | 1.02% |
| JAVA JPMorgan Active Value | 0.99% |
| IYF iShares U.S. Financials | 0.97% |
| XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR | 0.78% |
| JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income | 0.76% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in AJG among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
AJG stock splits
AJG has split its stock 2 times since 2000. The latest was a 2-for-1 split on 19 Jan 2001.
Full AJG stock split history →AJG SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.