United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
Industrials · Air Freight & Logistics · US stock · S&P 500 component
$101.52
▲ +1.95 (1.96%)
Fair valueFair
$112 +9.9% to fair value
$56fair band $95–$135$167
Day's range
$99.01 – $101.97
52-week range
$86.30 – $122.41
Red flags⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk⚠ Dividend may be at risk
About United Parcel Service Inc
United Parcel Service delivers packages and freight and manages supply chains for customers around the world. It runs a large ground network and air fleet within the United States and across international markets, moving parcels for retailers, manufacturers, healthcare firms and consumers. The business is organised into U.S. domestic package delivery, international package delivery and supply chain solutions, which includes freight forwarding, logistics and healthcare services.
UPS earns revenue from delivery charges, freight and logistics fees and related services. Sales for the last twelve months were $89.9 billion, though revenue growth over the last three years was -4.0% a year, a decline. The operating margin is 7.3%, and the business earns a profit of 15% on the capital invested in it. It has net debt of 2.1 times EBITDA. Shareholders receive a dividend with a yield of 6.5%. On the site's X-Ray Score it receives 44 out of 100.
UPS news
Crude oil in focus as stockpile draw, export data and warning reports collideCrude oil in focus as export and stockpile reports divergeCrude oil reports diverge as diplomacy hopes meet supply riskCrude oil slips as traders watch Middle East diplomacy
All UPS news →Price chart
52-wk range $86.30 – $122.41Volume 4,703,160Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$86.4B
52-week range$86.30 – $122.41
Volume (last day)4,703,160
P/E (TTM)18.9
EBIT / EV yield6.2%
Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
Dividend yield6.5%
Revenue (TTM)$89.9B
Net income (TTM)$4.6B
Operating margin7.3%
Return on capital14.7%
Debt incl. leases$24.5B
Cash & securities$4.7B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$112middle half of models $102 – $121
Fair
+9.9% to fair value
Average of the 13 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $102
Undervalued < $95Fair $95 – $135Overvalued > $135
P/E multiple
$99
P/B multiple
$121
P/S multiple
$121
EV/EBITDA multiple
$122
EV/EBIT multiple
$103
EV/revenue multiple
$113
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$103
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$102
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$102
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$104
10-year DCF, growth exit
$97
5-year DCF, growth exit
$94
Dividend discount, stable · not used
$235
Dividend discount, multi-stage · not used
$284
Earnings power value
$169
Growth the price implies
8.2%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, fairly priced
The price sits inside our fair-value band. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Industrials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
82/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield6.2%
Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
Fair value vs price1.1×
Growth
Weak
9/100
Growing slower than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)-4.0%
EPS growth (3y)-20.8%
Growth consistency30%
Profitability
Weak
48/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital14.7%
Operating margin7.3%
Financial health
Weak
23/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score5 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA2.1×
Interest cover6.0×
Dividends
Weak
48/100
Dividend is modest or less certain than peers.
See the numbers →
Dividend yield6.5%
Dividends vs free cash flow102%
Dividend growth1.8%
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
-0.7%
Mar '25
-2.7%
Jun '25
-3.7%
Sep '25
-3.2%
Dec '25
-1.6%
Mar '26
+7.6%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $22.8B, diluted EPS $0.71.
Compare with peers
FDX Fedex Corp54 EXPD Expeditors Internation...45 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwi...38Other Air Freight & Logistics companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: United Parcel Service Inc
Strengthsinside the company
- Free cash flow equals 6.3% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Revenue has fallen 4.0% a year over three years (median -13.1% for industry peers).
- Earnings per share have declined 20.8% a year over three years.
- Dividends (6.5% yield) are larger than free cash flow (payout 102% of it).
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Trades at 18.9x earnings, 33% below the 28.1x median of industry peers.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Our checks raised: Dividend may be at risk; Dividend may be at risk.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare UPS with peers and sector
Medians of 3 Air Freight & Logistics peers and of 80 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): FDX 54, EXPD 45, CHRW 38.
| Metric | UPS | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 44 | 45 | 51 |
| Valuation | 82 | 33 | 44 |
| Growth | 9 | 20 | 51 |
| Profitability | 48 | 45 | 51 |
| Financial health | 23 | 68 | 49 |
| Dividends | 48 | 36 | 53 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Industrials
UPS ranks #61 of 81 in Industrials and #3 of 4 in Air Freight & Logistics by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for UPS
Each factor is rated by where UPS stands among the 81 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 7 Good · 5 Average · 9 Bad of 21
Growth: 0 · 0 · 3
Profitability: 0 · 2 · 2
Financial strength: 0 · 2 · 2
Valuation: 4 · 1 · 0
Cash flow: 2 · 0 · 2
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | UPS | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | −4.0% | Bad beats 12% | +5.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | −2.6% | Bad beats 12% | +4.5% | +0.1% | ▼ Worse |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | −20.8% | Bad beats 6% | +5.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 7.3% | Bad beats 14% | 17.5% | 10.0% | ▼ Worse |
| Net margin | 5.1% | Bad beats 15% | 12.8% | 7.4% | ▼ Worse |
| Return on invested capital | 14.7% | Average beats 48% | 14.9% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 30.3% | Average beats 62% | 23.7% | 38.8% | ▼ Worse |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.1x | Average beats 41% | 1.8x | 1.3x | ▼ Worse |
| Interest cover | 6.0x | Bad beats 17% | 21.4x | 11.6x | ▼ Worse |
| Current ratio | 1.18 | Average beats 38% | 1.25 | 1.22 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | Bad beats 16% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 18.9x | Good beats 83% | 28.9x | 15.1x | ▼ Worse |
| Price / book | 5.7x | Average beats 54% | 6.2x | 7.7x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 1.0x | Good beats 92% | 3.5x | 1.5x | ▲ Better |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.2x | Good beats 90% | 18.5x | 10.7x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 6.3% | Good beats 86% | 3.8% | 5.7% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 6.1% | Bad beats 13% | 13.8% | 6.8% | ≈ In line |
| Cash from operations / net income | 1.94 | Good beats 80% | 1.39 | 1.52 | ▲ Better |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | −20.1% | Bad beats 7% | +14.5% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −6.0% | Good beats 83% | −3.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 43 days | Good beats 73% | 57 days | 46 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 4 Good · ● 3 Average · ● 8 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreBad
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Bad
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Bad
Revenue growth (3y)Bad
Growth consistencyBad
Balance sheet
Current ratioAverage
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 42/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $97.3B | $100.3B | $91.0B | $91.1B | $88.7B |
| Operating income | $12.8B | $13.1B | $9.1B | $8.5B | $7.9B |
| Net income | $12.9B | $11.5B | $6.7B | $5.8B | $5.6B |
| Operating cash flow | $15.0B | $14.1B | $10.2B | $10.1B | $8.5B |
| Operating margin | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
| Free cash flow | $10.8B | $9.3B | $5.1B | $6.2B | $4.8B |
| Diluted EPS | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.75 | $6.56 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bullish
10 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Weekly
Neutral
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 5 bearish
Monthly
Neutral
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 4 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 97.29 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 97.81 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 95.40 | Bullish |
| EMA 20 | 97.04 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | 98.95 | Bullish |
| EMA 50 | 98.69 | Bullish |
| SMA 100 | 103.2 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 100.4 | Bullish |
| SMA 200 | 102.4 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 100.3 | Bullish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 65.91 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | 0.29 | Bullish |
| Momentum (12) | 9.03 | Bullish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 95.68 | Bearish |
| Williams %R (14) | -4.32 | Bearish |
| CCI (20) | 186.6 | Bearish |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 96.73 | S2 97.87 | S1 99.69 | Pivot 100.8 | R1 102.7 | R2 103.8 | R3 105.6 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
Dividends
Paid, last 12 months
6.56 USD
Yield on today's price
6.46%
Frequency
Quarterly
Next ex-dividend date
Not announced
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6400 | |
| 1.6300 | |
| 1.6300 | |
| 1.6300 | |
| 1.6300 | |
| 1.6200 |
Ex-dividend dates and amounts from EODHD. Shown as declared, before tax.
ETFs that hold UPS
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| IYT iShares Transportation Average | 5.63% |
| FDL First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leade... | 3.15% |
| PEY Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Ach... | 2.28% |
| SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity | 1.98% |
| VALQ American Century STOXX U.S. Quality Va... | 1.49% |
| XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 1.39% |
| PWV Invesco Dynamic Large Cap Value | 1.35% |
| RSPN Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Industria... | 1.19% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in UPS among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
UPS SEC filings
8-KSEC EDGAR
Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
8-KSEC EDGAR
Other events
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
424B5SEC EDGAR
424B5
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.