United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
Industrials · Passenger Airlines · US stock · S&P 500 component
$102.00
▲ +0.33 (0.32%)
Fair valueUndervalued
$133 +30.4% to fair value
$67fair band $113–$161$200
Day's range
$98.00 – $103.96
52-week range
$84.64 – $138.77
About United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
United Airlines is a major network airline that carries passengers and cargo on routes across the United States and around the world. It operates large hubs in cities such as Chicago, Denver, Houston, Newark and San Francisco, and flies as part of the Star Alliance. Revenue comes mainly from ticket sales, with additional income from baggage and other fees, cargo shipping, and its MileagePlus loyalty program, including co-branded credit card payments.
Revenue over the last twelve months was $62.9 billion, with growth of 9.5% a year over three years. The operating margin stands at 7.7%. The return on invested capital is shown as 14%. Net debt to EBITDA is 1.2 times. The company does not pay a dividend. Its X-Ray Score is 63 out of 100. These numbers describe past results and current financial position, and they are shown for reference only.
Price chart
52-wk range $84.64 – $138.77Volume 6,651,617Daily, split-adjusted
Vitals
Market cap$33.3B
52-week range$84.64 – $138.77
Volume (last day)6,651,617
P/E (TTM)9.5
EBIT / EV yield11.3%
Free-cash-flow yield7.6%
Dividend yieldNo dividend
Revenue (TTM)$62.9B
Net income (TTM)$3.5B
Operating margin7.7%
Return on capital14.3%
Debt incl. leases$26.5B
Cash & securities$16.6B
Debt = borrowings plus lease liabilities. Cash & securities = cash, equivalents and short-term marketable securities (long-term securities are not counted, so net cash can be understated for companies that hold large long-term investments). Net debt = debt minus cash & securities. Source: latest SEC 10-Q/10-K. EBIT / EV yield = operating profit divided by market cap plus net debt.
Fair value estimate
$133middle half of models $103 – $158
Undervalued
+30.4% to fair value
Average of the 11 valuation models that pass our checks: multiples, discounted cash flow, dividend discount and earnings power value. A model more than 100% above or 60% below the price is left out as unrealistic. Model uncertainty is Medium, based on how far apart the models are. Undervalued or Overvalued means the gap to fair value is more than 17.5%.
Price $102
Undervalued < $113Fair $113 – $161Overvalued > $161
P/E multiple
$99
P/B multiple
$122
P/S multiple · not used
$211
EV/EBITDA multiple
$153
EV/EBIT multiple
$127
EV/revenue multiple
$199
10-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$90
5-year DCF, EBITDA exit
$105
10-year DCF, revenue exit
$100
5-year DCF, revenue exit
$116
10-year DCF, growth exit
$162
5-year DCF, growth exit
$189
Earnings power value · not used
$239
Growth the price implies
-1.7%/yr
A model estimate, not a price target or recommendation. Inputs: risk-free 5.13%, equity risk premium 4.30% (Damodaran). How it works.
What this means
Weak business, but the price is low
Our models put fair value above today's price, but models can be wrong, so check the business first. A high score does not guarantee a good outcome; it shifts the odds a little. Use the checklist as a prompt for your own research.
Before you invest · decision checklist
Ticked boxes are filled in from our data; the rest are yours to answer.
The five-lens scan
Every score explained in one sentence, ranked against Industrials peers. Open a lens to see the numbers behind it.
Strong: 70 to 100Fair: 50 to 69Weak: under 50No score: not enough data
Valuation
Strong
96/100
Cheap against its sector on earnings and cash flow.
See the numbers →
EBIT / EV yield11.3%
Free-cash-flow yield7.6%
Fair value vs price1.3×
Growth
Strong
75/100
Growing faster than most of its sector.
See the numbers →
Revenue growth (3y)9.5%
EPS growth (3y)66.0%
Growth consistency100%
Profitability
Weak
41/100
Earns lower returns on its capital than most peers.
See the numbers →
Return on invested capital14.3%
Operating margin7.7%
Financial health
Weak
36/100
Balance sheet is more stretched than most peers.
See the numbers →
Piotroski F-Score7 / 9
Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Interest cover3.7×
Dividends
None
–/100
Pays no dividend.
See the numbers →
Quarterly results: last 6 quarters
+5.4%
Mar '25
+1.7%
Jun '25
+2.6%
Sep '25
+4.8%
Dec '25
+10.6%
Mar '26
+16.0%
Jun '26
Revenue against the same quarter a year earlier. Latest quarter revenue $17.7B, diluted EPS $2.46.
Compare with peers
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc.60 LUV Southwest Airlines Co39Other Passenger Airlines companies by X-Ray Score.
SWOT analysis: United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Strengthsinside the company
- Earnings per share have compounded at 66.0% a year over three years.
- Free cash flow equals 7.6% of the market value, which funds dividends, buybacks or debt paydown.
- Passes 7 of the 9 Piotroski tests, which points to improving profitability, funding and efficiency.
Weaknessesinside the company
- Operating margin of 7.7% is thin against 17.5% for sector peers.
- Altman Z-score of 0.6 is in the zone linked with financial distress in past studies.
Opportunitiesvaluation and setting
- Trades at 9.5x earnings, 68% below the 29.3x median of sector peers.
- The price is 30% below our fair value estimate, with the gap larger than the margin we allow for error.
Threatsvaluation and setting
- Revenue growth slowed to 3.5% last year from 9.5% a year over three years.
- Earnings in Passenger Airlines follow the industry cycle, so margins and profits can swing from year to year.
Written by fixed rules from the figures on this page and the peer table below: filings, our fair value, the sector climate and the price trend. It summarises the data, it is not a forecast or advice.
Compare UAL with peers and sector
Medians of 80 Industrials peers and of 80 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Largest peers (X-Ray Score): CAT 43, GE 49, RTX 51, GEV 50, UNP 45, DE 43.
| Metric | UAL | Peers | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-Ray Score (out of 100) | 63 | 50 | 50 |
| Valuation | 96 | 44 | 44 |
| Growth | 75 | 50 | 50 |
| Profitability | 41 | 51 | 51 |
| Financial health | 36 | 49 | 49 |
| Dividends | – | 53 | 53 |
Sector leaders: highest X-Ray Score in Industrials
UAL ranks #10 of 81 in Industrials by X-Ray Score. A higher score is stronger on our five pillars; it is a ranking of facts, not a forecast.
Green means better than the peer median, red worse (only where a higher or lower figure is clearly better). A dash means too few companies report the figure. P/E, EV/EBITDA and price changes are not graded: a different level is not good or bad by itself.
Factor ratings for UAL
Each factor is rated by where UAL stands among the 81 Industrials stocks in our universe.
Rating against the sector
Goodthe top third of these stocks
Averagethe middle third of these stocks
Badthe bottom third of these stocks
"Beats" is the share of those stocks it is ahead of.
Against its own history
The last columns set today's figure against the company's own median of its last five financial years:
▲ Betterbetter than its usual level
▼ Worseworse than its usual level
≈ In linewithin its usual range
For valuation factors Good means cheaper than most of the sector and Better means cheaper than usual for this company, which is not the same as a bargain.
In total: 12 Good · 4 Average · 5 Bad of 21
Growth: 2 · 1 · 0
Profitability: 0 · 2 · 2
Financial strength: 1 · 1 · 2
Valuation: 5 · 0 · 0
Cash flow: 3 · 0 · 1
Efficiency: 1 · 0 · 0
| Factor | UAL | Rating | Sector median | Own 5-year median | Against own history |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth, 3 years a year | +9.5% | Good beats 76% | +5.6% | – | – |
| Revenue growth, last year | +3.5% | Average beats 42% | +4.5% | +19.5% | ▼ Worse |
| EPS growth, 3 years a year | +66.0% | Good beats 98% | +5.7% | – | – |
| Profitability | |||||
| Operating margin | 7.7% | Bad beats 19% | 17.5% | 7.8% | ≈ In line |
| Net margin | 5.6% | Bad beats 18% | 12.8% | 4.9% | ≈ In line |
| Return on invested capital | 14.3% | Average beats 45% | 14.9% | – | – |
| Return on equity | 20.9% | Average beats 46% | 23.7% | 21.9% | ≈ In line |
| Financial strength | |||||
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.2x | Average beats 65% | 1.8x | 2.1x | ▲ Better |
| Interest cover | 3.7x | Bad beats 6% | 21.4x | 2.6x | ▲ Better |
| Current ratio | 0.78 | Bad beats 8% | 1.25 | 0.83 | ≈ In line |
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | Good beats 68% | 6 / 9 | – | – |
| Valuation | |||||
| P/E ratio | 9.5x | Good beats 98% | 28.9x | 10.6x | ≈ In line |
| Price / book | 2.0x | Good beats 95% | 6.2x | 2.4x | ▲ Better |
| Price / sales | 0.5x | Good beats 99% | 3.5x | 0.6x | ≈ In line |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.5x | Good beats 99% | 18.5x | 5.7x | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow yield | 7.6% | Good beats 95% | 3.8% | 7.0% | ≈ In line |
| Cash flow | |||||
| Free cash flow margin | 4.0% | Bad beats 6% | 13.8% | 2.8% | ▲ Better |
| Cash from operations / net income | 2.55 | Good beats 96% | 1.39 | 2.82 | ≈ In line |
| Free cash flow growth, 3 years a year | +27.0% | Good beats 77% | +14.5% | – | – |
| Accruals (lower is better) | −6.4% | Good beats 85% | −3.2% | – | – |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 14 days | Good beats 95% | 57 days | 15 days | ≈ In line |
These ratings compare companies with each other and describe the past; they are not a forecast, a recommendation or part of the X-Ray Score. A factor is left out when its data is missing or meaningless (for example a P/E on negative earnings). A dash in the history columns means fewer than three usable years.
Fundamentals checklist
● 9 Good · ● 2 Average · ● 4 BadCash quality
Earnings backed by cashGood
Free-cash-flow yieldGood
Risk models
Altman Z''Bad
Piotroski F-ScoreGood
Growth
EPS growth (3y)Good
Free-cash-flow growth (3y)Good
Revenue growth (3y)Good
Growth consistencyGood
Balance sheet
Current ratioBad
Net debt / EBITDAAverage
Interest coverBad
Valuation
Fair value vs priceGood
EBIT / EV yieldGood
Profitability
Return on invested capitalAverage
Operating marginBad
Each check is graded against the company's sector, not a fixed number. Checklist score 63/100.
Financials
| FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B | $45.0B | $53.7B | $57.1B | $59.1B |
| Operating income | −$1.0B | $2.3B | $4.2B | $5.1B | $4.7B |
| Net income | −$2.0B | $737M | $2.6B | $3.1B | $3.4B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.1B | $6.1B | $6.9B | $9.4B | $8.4B |
| Operating margin | -4.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| Free cash flow | −$40M | $1.2B | −$260M | $3.8B | $2.6B |
| Diluted EPS | $-6.10 | $2.23 | $7.89 | $9.45 | $10.20 |
Fiscal years, from SEC filings.
Technical summary
Daily
Bearish
2 bullish · 4 neutral · 10 bearish
Weekly
Bearish
3 bullish · 1 neutral · 8 bearish
Monthly
Bullish
5 bullish · 1 neutral · 2 bearish
Moving averages (daily)
| SMA 10 | 100.9 | Bullish |
| EMA 10 | 101.6 | Bullish |
| SMA 20 | 106.1 | Bearish |
| EMA 20 | 104.3 | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | 109.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | 108.9 | Bearish |
| SMA 100 | 115.7 | Bearish |
| EMA 100 | 110.5 | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | 108.4 | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | 108.1 | Bearish |
Oscillators (daily)
| RSI (14) | 43.33 | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26) | -3.39 | Bearish |
| Momentum (12) | -8.82 | Bearish |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 36.11 | Neutral |
| Williams %R (14) | -63.89 | Neutral |
| CCI (20) | -61.98 | Neutral |
Pivot points (classic, last session)
S3 92.72 | S2 95.36 | S1 98.68 | Pivot 101.3 | R1 104.6 | R2 107.3 | R3 110.6 |
Signals describe what the chart is doing, not what to do. Moving averages: price above the average is bullish. Oscillators use the usual thresholds (RSI 30/70, Stochastic 20/80, CCI ±100, Williams %R −80/−20; MACD and momentum above zero are bullish). Weekly and monthly views use closing prices only.
ETFs that hold UAL
| ETF | Share of the fund |
|---|---|
| JETS U.S. Global Jets | 11.07% |
| IYT iShares Transportation Average | 5.03% |
| RSPN Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Industria... | 1.40% |
| SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta | 1.38% |
| COWZ Pacer US Cash Cows 100 | 1.10% |
| RPV Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value | 0.93% |
| XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 0.77% |
| VOE Vanguard Mid-Cap Value | 0.76% |
The eight funds with the largest weight in UAL among the ETFs we cover, from each fund's latest SEC Form N-PORT (quarter-end positions, so they can be months old). All ETFs.
UAL SEC filings
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
8-KSEC EDGAR
Shareholder vote results
8-KSEC EDGAR
Regulation FD disclosure
10-QSEC EDGAR
Quarterly report
8-KSEC EDGAR
Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure
Where the numbers come from
Statements SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q), quarters derived from year-to-date figures.
Prices end-of-day closes, split-adjusted.
Industry inputs beta, multiples and equity risk premium from Damodaran Online (NYU Stern).
StocksXray is for education only and is not financial advice. Scores and fair values are model estimates from public filings and carry uncertainty.